November 6, 201114 yr In regards to shedding Nolasco's contract.. If you can have a 3-4-5 of Hanley-Prince-Stanton (with Boni/Infante/Buck) and a 1-3 of JJ-Gio-Anibal (maybe with Zambrano) with a 73 mil payroll, I think that's a good spot to be. You could add a Buehrle or ARam and be at the magic 85 mil number.. or give a one year deal to sizemore and be at a great payroll spot for next years FA class.
November 6, 201114 yr Get the Cubs to eat Zambrano's contract and you can always move him to Chicago. Granted, Zambrano isn't worth Gaby but its an option. Hell, if they'd take Nolasco's contract, I'd give him up too. That'd leave the Fish free to hand out another decent FA contract.. or at the very least give Sizemore a nice one year deal.. or at the very very least bank it and use it for next years strong FA class because they'd still be in a good spot with regards to their payroll. They're at $63 million for next year, given arbitration estimates. Prince is getting at least $20 million per year. So if they add Prince, they'll be at $83 million. What do you think the payroll is going to be? We can't build a winning team by just adding Prince Fielder and Gio Gonzalez. Which is why it'd be nice to shed Nolasco's contract. Ok. So you shed Nolasco. You're not getting much for him. Probably nothing useful next year. So now you've got JJ, Anibal, Volstad, Gio, and $9 million. So you add a starter. But you've still got crappy Volstad in there, plus now you still need a LF and either CF or 3B. What do you think payroll is going to be to make this work?
November 6, 201114 yr Get rid of Nolasco and you have 12 mil to spend to get the 85 mil mark with a hole at LF and 3B/CF and a hole at SP4 and SP5. I'd take Zambrano off the Cubs hands and sign Sizemore to a one year deal. That would leave the fish under 80 mil with holes at LF (or 3B) and SP5. After that, I'd probably go bargain bin shopping for a LF and get someone like Ryan Ludwick and then get a veteran to plug in to the back end of the rotation.. maybe Livan or someone like that. Both on cheap one year deals I think that leaves you with a good team under 85 mil. The 3-4-5 would be wildly entertaining and the 1-3 of the rotation could match up with anybody... while also leaving the fish able to be players in next years FA class if they are looking to expand payroll anymore. jmo
November 6, 201114 yr Guys stop trying to trade Morrison ...He isn't going anywhere Stirring analysis. You want analysis...here we go! The only reason the Marlins woulf trade Logan Morrison is because he pissed off the FO.. Kid has one of the sweetest swings in the majors he showed the power that many doubted he had, it's seems his K's were higher but it was more a matter that typical Marlins coaching had him all crossed up as a hitter. He was looking at film and he couldn't recognize himself. He went back to what was natural and started hitting a ton again...Glove is a work in process but shows great quickness and a pretty strong arm. He is a better hitter than Gabby, and better run producer... If someone is being moved it would be Gabby Sanchez not Logan Morrison
November 6, 201114 yr Anybody can be traded but looking at past patterns of this FO office the Marlins don't throw in players with that type of potential and accomplishment into trades...On a different note, I feel Gio Gonzalez would have been much easier to get last year but he pretty much would now be considered untouchable...He is an All-Star who pitched over 200 innings, Hitters batted .230 against him and he doesnt become a Free agent untill 2016. I know he is a local kid that everone would love to see in a Marlins Uniform but that is barking up the wrong tree
November 6, 201114 yr We have maybe 3 untouchable players: Stanton, JJ and Hanley. I don't think JJ and Hanley are untouchable, honestly.
November 6, 201114 yr We have maybe 3 untouchable players: Stanton, JJ and Hanley. I don't think JJ and Hanley are untouchable, honestly. Hanley I'd say is, for the most part, but with the injuries, I'll agree with you on JJ.
November 6, 201114 yr Get rid of Nolasco and you have 12 mil to spend to get the 85 mil mark with a hole at LF and 3B/CF and a hole at SP4 and SP5. I'd take Zambrano off the Cubs hands and sign Sizemore to a one year deal. That would leave the fish under 80 mil with holes at LF (or 3B) and SP5. After that, I'd probably go bargain bin shopping for a LF and get someone like Ryan Ludwick and then get a veteran to plug in to the back end of the rotation.. maybe Livan or someone like that. Both on cheap one year deals I think that leaves you with a good team under 85 mil. The 3-4-5 would be wildly entertaining and the 1-3 of the rotation could match up with anybody... while also leaving the fish able to be players in next years FA class if they are looking to expand payroll anymore. jmo Just going with the Fielder, Gio, Grady, Zambrano moves, you're looking at this (arbitration numbers roughly based on MLBTR's projections): C John Buck $6,500,000 1B Prince Fielder $20,000,000 2B Omar Infante $4,000,000 3B Emilio Bonifacio $2,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000 LF CF Grady Sizemore $5,000,000 RF Mike Stanton $420,000 B Brett Hayes $420,000 B Bryan Petersen $420,000 B Chris Coghlan $400,000 B B SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000 SP Gio Gonzalez $4,200,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $6,000,000 SP SP Carlos Zambrano $1,000,000 RP Edward Mujica $1,500,000 RP Randy Choate $1,500,000 RP Ryan Webb $430,000 RP Mike Dunn $420,000 RP Steve Cishek $420,000 RP Jose Ceda $420,000 RP Alex Sanabia (or Sean West, I guess) $420,000 Puts you around $84 million, and I think those estimates for Grady and Fielder are low. I think each could get $2m per more. I also don't see any way the Cubs are eating all of Zambrano's contract, so that could tick up a few million as well. You're looking at $84 million at the minimum, while still needing to get a SP, LF, and two bench players. But it could be a $90 million dollar payroll if those guys move to their higher end salary projections. It's simply not a smart move to have Fielder take up almost 1/4 of our payroll. It makes the team significantly older and more expensive, since we're losing two of our three every day cost controlled players. And it hinders your ability to make moves long term, since Hanley and JJ are still locked up, Anibal and Gio would need to be extended, and Stanton and the relievers are going to be arbitration eligible in a couple of years. This franchise is probably never going to be able to do consistent $100+ million payrolls, so trading young, cheap assets and taking on a $20 million/year contract simply isn't the right move.
November 6, 201114 yr I think our most likely off season is signing a pitcher like Mark Buehrle, signing Aramis Ramirez, trading for Zambrano, and then filling out the two bench spots and maybe bringing in a reliever.
November 6, 201114 yr I think our most likely off season is signing a pitcher like Mark Buehrle, signing Aramis Ramirez, trading for Zambrano, and then filling out the two bench spots and maybe bringing in a reliever. I think this presents the best opportunity to be competitive right now, but it depends on A) How much and how long of a contract Aramis wants, B) how much of Zambrano's salary the Cubs will be willing to pick up, and C) How high they want to push payroll. If they'll push it to $90 million, this would be a very good idea. I'm not sure they will.
November 6, 201114 yr I'm not expecting the payroll to be 85. I think it will be around 90, so I'm going off a payroll of 90. If they do stick to 85, I think you scratch off Zambrano and maybe the bullpen arm, if they decide to sign on. I can see the team going in house for the last rotation spot and bullpen spot. Just to clarify, this is not what I want. I just think this is the most likely scenario we see this off season. We've been linked to Zambrano and Ramirez a lot the past few months. So I see the chance of them two landing here high. I also see Buehrle as a possibility because of our need for pitching, the fact that he's a lefty, and because of Ozzie Guillen.
November 6, 201114 yr Has Gaby played any position other than first in his career? He played 3rd when he was in college at the U of Miami Hurricanes.
November 6, 201114 yr Get rid of Nolasco and you have 12 mil to spend to get the 85 mil mark with a hole at LF and 3B/CF and a hole at SP4 and SP5. I'd take Zambrano off the Cubs hands and sign Sizemore to a one year deal. That would leave the fish under 80 mil with holes at LF (or 3B) and SP5. After that, I'd probably go bargain bin shopping for a LF and get someone like Ryan Ludwick and then get a veteran to plug in to the back end of the rotation.. maybe Livan or someone like that. Both on cheap one year deals I think that leaves you with a good team under 85 mil. The 3-4-5 would be wildly entertaining and the 1-3 of the rotation could match up with anybody... while also leaving the fish able to be players in next years FA class if they are looking to expand payroll anymore. jmo Just going with the Fielder, Gio, Grady, Zambrano moves, you're looking at this (arbitration numbers roughly based on MLBTR's projections): C John Buck $6,500,000 1B Prince Fielder $20,000,000 2B Omar Infante $4,000,000 3B Emilio Bonifacio $2,000,000 SS Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000 LF CF Grady Sizemore $5,000,000 RF Mike Stanton $420,000 B Brett Hayes $420,000 B Bryan Petersen $420,000 B Chris Coghlan $400,000 B B SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000 SP Gio Gonzalez $4,200,000 SP Anibal Sanchez $6,000,000 SP SP Carlos Zambrano $1,000,000 RP Edward Mujica $1,500,000 RP Randy Choate $1,500,000 RP Ryan Webb $430,000 RP Mike Dunn $420,000 RP Steve Cishek $420,000 RP Jose Ceda $420,000 RP Alex Sanabia (or Sean West, I guess) $420,000 Puts you around $84 million, and I think those estimates for Grady and Fielder are low. I think each could get $2m per more. I also don't see any way the Cubs are eating all of Zambrano's contract, so that could tick up a few million as well. You're looking at $84 million at the minimum, while still needing to get a SP, LF, and two bench players. But it could be a $90 million dollar payroll if those guys move to their higher end salary projections. It's simply not a smart move to have Fielder take up almost 1/4 of our payroll. It makes the team significantly older and more expensive, since we're losing two of our three every day cost controlled players. And it hinders your ability to make moves long term, since Hanley and JJ are still locked up, Anibal and Gio would need to be extended, and Stanton and the relievers are going to be arbitration eligible in a couple of years. This franchise is probably never going to be able to do consistent $100+ million payrolls, so trading young, cheap assets and taking on a $20 million/year contract simply isn't the right move. Good post.. you're probably right that its not smart to give so much money to one player.. but its fun to think about. Best part of the offseason is speculation and debates like these. Worst part is waiting. I'm very interested to know what our first move will be
November 6, 201114 yr I'm not expecting the payroll to be 85. I think it will be around 90, so I'm going off a payroll of 90. If they do stick to 85, I think you scratch off Zambrano and maybe the bullpen arm, if they decide to sign on. I can see the team going in house for the last rotation spot and bullpen spot. Just to clarify, this is not what I want. I just think this is the most likely scenario we see this off season. We've been linked to Zambrano and Ramirez a lot the past few months. So I see the chance of them two landing here high. I also see Buehrle as a possibility because of our need for pitching, the fact that he's a lefty, and because of Ozzie Guillen. I would be pretty pleased with a rotation of: JJ Anibal Buehrle Nolasco Zambrano You have an excellent #1-#3, and backend guys who should be no worse than 4.50 ERA over a bunch of innings while having significant upside. It's still not as good as the Phillies' rotation (maybe even without Oswalt?), but it is very competitive. We'd still likely need everything to break right to make the playoffs, though - no significant injuries, most of our position players performing near expectations, etc. And the injuries thing is certainly a lot to ask when you have JJ, Hanley, and Sizemore starting on your roster.
November 6, 201114 yr And it hinders your ability to make moves long term, since Hanley and JJ are still locked up, Anibal and Gio would need to be extended, and Stanton and the relievers are going to be arbitration eligible in a couple of years. This franchise is probably never going to be able to do consistent $100+ million payrolls, so trading young, cheap assets and taking on a $20 million/year contract simply isn't the right move. The rest of the post is really good, but I did want to isolate this part. Anibal and Gio get extended if it makes sense, and if it makes sense, then it's not necessarily a liability. Basically, the reasoning in the 1st sentence doesn't feel completely sound.
November 6, 201114 yr I'll throw a name out there.. John Danks. It sounds like one of him or Gavin Floyd could be dealt this offseason. Would most certainly cost less than Gio and, if you look to lock him up (which you think they would), it would probably cost about the same (or less) as Buehrle... and I'd rather have Danks than Buehrle. He's a guy that I think could be really good. edit - kind of funny.. between buehrle, ozzie, ARam, zambrano.. and now Danks.. lots of Chicago players. Hell, even Gio was a white sox draft pick... lol
November 6, 201114 yr New MLBTR article says that Marlins/Red Sox are trade candidates for Gio. And even better, it alludes to the fact that the A's would want mainly prospects. I'd give up Matty D and some others in a package for Gonzalez in a heartbeat if it means that we can keep LoMo. If we bring in Aramis Ramirez or Grady Sizemore, Emilio can play the other position.
November 6, 201114 yr New MLBTR article says that Marlins/Red Sox are trade candidates for Gio. And even better, it alludes to the fact that the A's would want mainly prospects. I'd give up Matty D and some others in a package for Gonzalez in a heartbeat if it means that we can keep LoMo. If we bring in Aramis Ramirez or Grady Sizemore, Emilio can play the other position. They'd probably want pitching prospects back. I don't know if James/Hand and Fernandez would be what they want.
November 6, 201114 yr Get the Cubs to eat Zambrano's contract and you can always move him to Chicago. Granted, Zambrano isn't worth Gaby but its an option. Hell, if they'd take Nolasco's contract, I'd give him up too. That'd leave the Fish free to hand out another decent FA contract.. or at the very least give Sizemore a nice one year deal.. or at the very very least bank it and use it for next years strong FA class because they'd still be in a good spot with regards to their payroll. They're at $63 million for next year, given arbitration estimates. Prince is getting at least $20 million per year. So if they add Prince, they'll be at $83 million. What do you think the payroll is going to be? We can't build a winning team by just adding Prince Fielder and Gio Gonzalez. Which is why it'd be nice to shed Nolasco's contract. as i have been saying.
November 6, 201114 yr New MLBTR article says that Marlins/Red Sox are trade candidates for Gio. And even better, it alludes to the fact that the A's would want mainly prospects. I'd give up Matty D and some others in a package for Gonzalez in a heartbeat if it means that we can keep LoMo. If we bring in Aramis Ramirez or Grady Sizemore, Emilio can play the other position. This is what I was hoping for...would not trade Lomo, we're not getting Fielder so forget it. I'd load up the pile for Gio....Take Gaby, CC, Matt D, Bryon Peterson, Hand and Rasmussen...if all need to go then good bye, all club controlled. So Billy B, go play moneyball.
November 6, 201114 yr I have a hard time believing, if we don't offer LoMo, that we can make the best package available for the A's. There has to be other teams out there willing to part with better prospects for a player like Gio.
November 6, 201114 yr And it hinders your ability to make moves long term, since Hanley and JJ are still locked up, Anibal and Gio would need to be extended, and Stanton and the relievers are going to be arbitration eligible in a couple of years. This franchise is probably never going to be able to do consistent $100+ million payrolls, so trading young, cheap assets and taking on a $20 million/year contract simply isn't the right move. The rest of the post is really good, but I did want to isolate this part. Anibal and Gio get extended if it makes sense, and if it makes sense, then it's not necessarily a liability. Basically, the reasoning in the 1st sentence doesn't feel completely sound. Well, Gio has 4 arbitration years, so his salary is going to continue to climb. My point is that you're shedding club-controlled players making the minimum for guys who have significant paydays coming up. It limits flexibility.
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