September 11, 201015 yr The relievers not named Leo are 2 out 18 in save opportunities. Tank and Hensley lead the way each 0 for 3. They can't get a save if they don't finish the game. And up until very recently, Leo has closed every "savable" game. Of course there numbers look ugly in this regard; they lose credit when they can't hold a late lead, but they never get a save when they do [hold a late lead], because it's not in the 9th inning.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat.
September 11, 201015 yr The relievers not named Leo are 2 out 18 in save opportunities. Tank and Hensley lead the way each 0 for 3. The fact that Hensley is 0/3 is absolutely irrelevant. As a matter of fact, that's all pretty irrelevant. Middle relievers don't get saves. They get holds, which in the case of Hensley who usually goes a full inning like a closer, are just as valuable as saves. Even Hensley said pitching the 8th and 9th inning aren't that different aside from "shaking the catcher's hand after the inning his over". To a guy as cool as Hensley thats probably true. It isn't the same for every reliever though.
September 11, 201015 yr The relievers not named Leo are 2 out 18 in save opportunities. Tank and Hensley lead the way each 0 for 3. The fact that Hensley is 0/3 is absolutely irrelevant. As a matter of fact, that's all pretty irrelevant. Middle relievers don't get saves. They get holds, which in the case of Hensley who usually goes a full inning like a closer, are just as valuable as saves. Even Hensley said pitching the 8th and 9th inning aren't that different aside from "shaking the catcher's hand after the inning his over". To a guy as cool as Hensley thats probably true. It isn't the same for every reliever though. I think Hensley's too cool out there. He didn't seem excited, he didn't have that killer's instinct tonight.
September 11, 201015 yr Leo Nunez got hit tonight much like he was getting hit in his previous save opportunities. Maybe it's not a matter of "it takes an entire different mentality to close" thing.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average. Heath Bell has blown 3 of his 42 save opportunities. Brian Wilson has blown 4 of his 45 save opportunities. Leo Nunez blew 8 of his 37 save opportunities. Leo Nunez is a big reason why we lead the league in blown saves, to be fair. Out of the 24, he's responsible for 1/3. Counting blown saves for middle relievers is unfair if you're not going to count their holds. Especially for a setup guy like Hensley who's averaging over an inning per appearance this year, and has been the workhorse of the bullpen.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average. I picked SD because they have the top bullpen; I'm not sure how you decided on San Fran, but it seems cherry-picked. I'm not saying our pen is great or anything; but, how many of those BS's came with leads in the 9th? I'm more interested in that.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average. I picked SD because they have the top bullpen; I'm not sure how you decided on San Fran, but it seems cherry-picked. I'm not saying our pen is great or anything; but, how many of those BS's came with leads in the 9th? I'm more interested in that. The fact that SD's bullpen outside of Heath Bell has a ~16.6 "save %" shows just how irrelevant that statistic is. San Diego's middle relief is awesome. Basically, the differences are: Compared to the best bullpen in the league, our middle relief has blown 6 more saves than their middle relief. Comparing closers, Leo Nunez has blown 5 more saves than Heath Bell in 5 less save chances. I don't like the blown save statistic because I think people take it too literally, but it's pretty clear that Leo Nunez is the bigger reason for all the blown saves. As a matter of fact, Leo is 2nd in all of baseball and 1st among closers in blown saves this year.
September 11, 201015 yr Leo is mediocre at best for a closer and yes he gets some of the blame but the middle relievers have us at the top in the blowing leads category.
September 11, 201015 yr Leo is mediocre at best for a closer and yes he gets some of the blame but the middle relievers have us at the top in the blowing leads category. Leo is the biggest reason why we're at the top in "the blowing leads category." He's done it 8 times; second in all of baseball behind Tyler Clippard, who has 9. Clay Hensley blowing 3 leads is perfectly acceptable at this time of the year, especially considering how much he's pitched. Our middle relief has sucked, but the biggest reason for the blown leads were the inconsistencies of our closer. Also take into account that no team with a mediocre closer is going to be above average in middle relief. The closer should provide stability in the bullpen so the other roles can be established. All great bullpens have a great closer.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average. It's not really 2/18 though. Those aren't save opportunities, just save situations, you're just going saves vs blown saves, which happened when the pitcher wasn't going to get a save regardless. To get a real look at things you need to look at their holds as well.
September 11, 201015 yr Even San Diego's non-Heath Bell relievers are 2/12 in "save opps". That is a completely unfair way to use that stat. 2/12 is not as bad as 2/18. San Francisco's relievers not named Brian are 8/19 which is a lot better than 2/18. Those 16 blown saves by guys not named Leo are the reason we lead the league in blown saves. We've blown 24 saves as a team. The MLB average is 16. Our save % is 56% vs. 69% for the league average. It's not really 2/18 though. Those aren't save opportunities, just save situations, you're just going saves vs blown saves, which happened when the pitcher wasn't going to get a save regardless. To get a real look at things you need to look at their holds as well. That's how baseball-reference shows it in the team stats page and it agrees with the ESPN team total stats page so I assume this is an official stat. With that said, I should have said that we've blown 16 saves in the middle innings instead of saying 2 out of 18. I had a feeling our middle relievers led the league in blown saves and wanted to compare with other teams but I don't know where to find that info so was going one by one among teams that have had the same closer for almost the entire year so you know that the blown saves by a middle reliever were in the middle innings. You can't compare to the Phillies for example for this purpose.
September 11, 201015 yr I don't like total because the worse a start pitching staff is, the more your bullpen gets used, the more chances for blown saves. It doesn't effect us because we're basically dead on average for average IP per start. But for somebody like Pitt, they're bullpen goes an average of 2/3rds more a game. Meanwhile, Philly's bullpen goes 1/3rd less a game (Which is probably all thanks to Roy) For ratio, if you do Blown Saves / (Blown Saves + Saves+ Holds) The NL average is that 14.5% of the time, a reliever will blow a save - or once every 7 opportunities. We are at 19%, or once every 5 opportunities. Difference of about 8 per season given the average amount of save opportunities (And we're exactly 8 blown saves over NL average right now)
September 11, 201015 yr I'm pretty excited about next year. Granted, they definitely need to go out and get some pitching, but this team could be a monster on offense with this line up lf - Morrison cf - Maybin rf - Stanton 3b - Coghlan SS - Ramirez 2B - Uggla? I think they bring him back now that Cantu and Ross are gone 1B - Sanchez C - I'd really like to get someone great here, but its probably going to be Baker/someone else platoon again. I've appreciated the defense of a Brad Davis too. If Dominguez becomes major league ready soon, trade Coghlan for some pitching.
September 11, 201015 yr If I understand correctly, some people are using a stat that is calculated by dividing saves over blown leads? How is that even relevant when only 1 person in the team gets saves. So the denominator keeps rising and the numerator has no chance to unless they pitch the ninth (which only the closer does?) is that the stat you're using? Wtf?
September 11, 201015 yr Our bullpen is really weird. The current guys in the pen, if you look at their #'s, you'd think our pen would be good. In terms of overall #'s, Hensley, Nunez, Veras, Ohman, Sanches, and Badenhop would all be in just about any bullpen in baseball, right now. If you look at their numbers, you would think they should be average. And they are. The team's ERA, WHIP, and OPS against is basically dead-exact to the average NL bullpen. The problem this year has been that, when they do give up hits and runs, it's at the most unopportunistic time. They give up the runs in close ball games, and shut them out when it's not close. Unclutch, or just the victim of random? The problem is that, once again, the FO chooses to work through the first half of the season before settling on the bullpen. Look at all the duds the Marlins had in the bullpen who are no longer there.
September 11, 201015 yr Our bullpen is really weird. The current guys in the pen, if you look at their #'s, you'd think our pen would be good. In terms of overall #'s, Hensley, Nunez, Veras, Ohman, Sanches, and Badenhop would all be in just about any bullpen in baseball, right now. If you look at their numbers, you would think they should be average. And they are. The team's ERA, WHIP, and OPS against is basically dead-exact to the average NL bullpen. The problem this year has been that, when they do give up hits and runs, it's at the most unopportunistic time. They give up the runs in close ball games, and shut them out when it's not close. Unclutch, or just the victim of random? The problem is that, once again, the FO chooses to work through the first half of the season before settling on the bullpen. Look at all the duds the Marlins had in the bullpen who are no longer there. And some who still are. Jorge Sosa, I'm looking @ you.
September 11, 201015 yr Our bullpen is really weird. The current guys in the pen, if you look at their #'s, you'd think our pen would be good. In terms of overall #'s, Hensley, Nunez, Veras, Ohman, Sanches, and Badenhop would all be in just about any bullpen in baseball, right now. If you look at their numbers, you would think they should be average. And they are. The team's ERA, WHIP, and OPS against is basically dead-exact to the average NL bullpen. The problem this year has been that, when they do give up hits and runs, it's at the most unopportunistic time. They give up the runs in close ball games, and shut them out when it's not close. Unclutch, or just the victim of random? The problem is that, once again, the FO chooses to work through the first half of the season before settling on the bullpen. Look at all the duds the Marlins had in the bullpen who are no longer there. Duds like Meyer who was really good for the team last year? That was unpredictable. Pinto was also worse than he was in previous years, and Badenhop (who's now on the team pitching better) had a really bad stretch. Our current setup guy who's doing well (Veras) was also terrible at the beginning. It's just been really inconsistent, but it's not as if the names have changed from one half to another.
September 12, 201015 yr Leo Nunez Men On: .304/.354/.413 (.767 .OPS) .RISP: .275/.362/.333 (.695 .OPS) Late & Close: .282/.333/.404 (.737 .OPS) High Leverage: .261/.322/.360 (.683 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .308/.341/.590 (.931 .OPS) Low Leverage: .243/.303/.343 (.645 .OPS) Clay Hensley Men On: .181/.275/.219 (.494 .OPS) .RISP: .154/.233/.215 (.448 .OPS) Late & Close: .218/.299/.293 (.591 .OPS) High Leverage: .196/..278/.227 (.505 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .213/.296/.362 (.652 .OPS) Low Leverage: .213/.293/.326 (.619 .OPS) Jose Veras Men On: .123/.278/.154 (.432 .OPS) .RISP: .108/.267/.135 (.402 .OPS) Late & Close: .225/.353/.352 (.705 .OPS) High Leverage: .132/.313/.158 (.470 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .343/.378/.486 (.864 .OPS) Low Leverage: .123/.269/.231 (.500 .OPS) Will Ohman Men On: .280/.370/.390 (.760 .OPS) .RISP: .286/.393/.452 (.845 .OPS) Late & Close: .282/.376/.338 (.714 .OPS) High Leverage: .314/.367/.392 (.759 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .250/.438/.333 (.771 .OPS) Low Leverage: .221/.291/.390 (.680 .OPS) Burke Badenhop Men On: .284/.340/.455 (.795 .OPS) .RISP: .308/.393/.538 (.932 .OPS) Late & Close: .281/.333/.453 (.786 .OPS) High Leverage: .311/.380/.511 (.891 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .152/.152/.212 (.364 .OPS) Low Leverage: .222/.288/.325 (.613 .OPS) Brian Sanches Men On: .186/.255/.314 (.569 .OPS) .RISP: .182/.291/.250 (.541 .OPS) Late & Close: .308/.370/.538 (.908 .OPS) High Leverage: .258/.324/.452 (.776 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .185/.324/.407 (.731 .OPS) Low Leverage: .207/.284/.331 (.614 .OPS) These are the six best relievers we have on the team. I'm not posting the others' statistics because the other guys just flat out suck(ed). Our entire bullpen is awesome in low leverage situations, hence the reason why despite all the blown saves, the bullpen ERA, WHIP, etc. for the season are average compared to the rest of the league. However, the only reliever on the team who's reliable in all situations is Clay Hensley. Leo Nunez, despite the overall #'s not looking terrible, has padded his stats when the games/situations mean less. The same can be said for many in our bullpen this year.
September 13, 201015 yr Leo Nunez Men On: .304/.354/.413 (.767 .OPS) .RISP: .275/.362/.333 (.695 .OPS) Late & Close: .282/.333/.404 (.737 .OPS) High Leverage: .261/.322/.360 (.683 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .308/.341/.590 (.931 .OPS) Low Leverage: .243/.303/.343 (.645 .OPS) Clay Hensley Men On: .181/.275/.219 (.494 .OPS) .RISP: .154/.233/.215 (.448 .OPS) Late & Close: .218/.299/.293 (.591 .OPS) High Leverage: .196/..278/.227 (.505 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .213/.296/.362 (.652 .OPS) Low Leverage: .213/.293/.326 (.619 .OPS) Jose Veras Men On: .123/.278/.154 (.432 .OPS) .RISP: .108/.267/.135 (.402 .OPS) Late & Close: .225/.353/.352 (.705 .OPS) High Leverage: .132/.313/.158 (.470 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .343/.378/.486 (.864 .OPS) Low Leverage: .123/.269/.231 (.500 .OPS) Will Ohman Men On: .280/.370/.390 (.760 .OPS) .RISP: .286/.393/.452 (.845 .OPS) Late & Close: .282/.376/.338 (.714 .OPS) High Leverage: .314/.367/.392 (.759 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .250/.438/.333 (.771 .OPS) Low Leverage: .221/.291/.390 (.680 .OPS) Burke Badenhop Men On: .284/.340/.455 (.795 .OPS) .RISP: .308/.393/.538 (.932 .OPS) Late & Close: .281/.333/.453 (.786 .OPS) High Leverage: .311/.380/.511 (.891 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .152/.152/.212 (.364 .OPS) Low Leverage: .222/.288/.325 (.613 .OPS) Brian Sanches Men On: .186/.255/.314 (.569 .OPS) .RISP: .182/.291/.250 (.541 .OPS) Late & Close: .308/.370/.538 (.908 .OPS) High Leverage: .258/.324/.452 (.776 .OPS) Medium Leverage: .185/.324/.407 (.731 .OPS) Low Leverage: .207/.284/.331 (.614 .OPS) These are the six best relievers we have on the team. I'm not posting the others' statistics because the other guys just flat out suck(ed). Our entire bullpen is awesome in low leverage situations, hence the reason why despite all the blown saves, the bullpen ERA, WHIP, etc. for the season are average compared to the rest of the league. However, the only reliever on the team who's reliable in all situations is Clay Hensley. Leo Nunez, despite the overall #'s not looking terrible, has padded his stats when the games/situations mean less. The same can be said for many in our bullpen this year. Thanks for the postings. This actually supports some of the things that I've been trying to say for a while about our bullpen being stocked with arms that can put up decent numbers, but not many guys who were capable of stepping up in intense situations. I think this is a weakness that plagues the Beinfest-low-payroll bullpen, as we get reclamation projects that we get the best out of, but a dearth of guys who can pitch the late innings.
September 13, 201015 yr Thanks for the postings. This actually supports some of the things that I've been trying to say for a while about our bullpen being stocked with arms that can put up decent numbers, but not many guys who were capable of stepping up in intense situations. I think this is a weakness that plagues the Beinfest-low-payroll bullpen, as we get reclamation projects that we get the best out of, but a dearth of guys who can pitch the late innings. It supports it... kinda. There's always a sample size problem with 1 year of leverage numbers as a reliever. It could be that you're right or it could be plain old luck. Hell, it could be a mixture of the 2.
September 13, 201015 yr It's easy to be tempted by talented pitchers like Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Chien-Ming Wang and Brad Penny. Those starters have all pitched at an elite level in the major leagues, so teams are a little more willing to overlook recent struggles or injuries. As usual, GMs will place calls to high-upside pitchers such as Brandon Webb and Jeff Francis this offseason. Webb, Francis, Penny, Harden, Wang, Chris Young, Erik Bedard and Justin Duchscherer could all hit free agency this offseason. High-upside arms aren't for everyone, of course, so here's a list of teams that may have interest in this kind of pitcher for their2011 rotations: Yankees Blue Jays - The Jays may decide to create competition for the fifth starter’s job. Tigers Royals Nationals Marlins - They could bring in an extra pitcher to compete with Sean West, Alex Sanabia and others. Mets - The Mets could look to create competition for Jenrry Mejia instead of handing him the fifth starter's job, especially now that Johan Santana's timetable is uncertain. Cardinals - They’ve signed Rich Hill, Brad Penny and Matt Clement in recent years, so they’re clearly open to this kind of signing. Pirates Cubs - The Cubs’ interest in free agent pitchers depends on whether they trade Carlos Zambrano. Astros Dodgers Padres Rockies
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