Marlins current four year plan breakdown

[Nny]

With the trades of late we lost our 2013 starting 2b and 3b, plus two extention candidate pitchers. This post is going to be looking at where we currently are with money and production on the field, what holes need to be addressed, the resources we have to address the holes, and future considerations we need to make while addressing the holes.

 

 

 

Few notes:

-* means arbitration eligible/guess payroll

-Replacement level team is worth 48 wins, so add 48 to the WAR total for total team wins

-Those WAR numbers are very rough, as are minimum numbers - Some $ will be added to the likes of Stanton and such - But this is meant as a rough view and not completely 100% accurate. Just enough to paint a picture.

-If they're making the minimum, their name really doesn't matter (This especially goes for bench/bullpen). It's just used as a filler piece since it's already rather interchangeable.

 

2013

 

So going into this off season, we'll have about 25m to spend and need roughly 13 wins to buy 3 positions (Let's throw another 1 WAR at the bench and just make an average of 4 WAR needed per position) in order to get to 90 wins.

 

They could probably fit something like:

Angel Pagan 2/14 2.5 WAR (Trade him after year 1, ease Yelich in carefully, or basically have a 4 man OF rotation if Stanton's knee never gets better)

Kelly Johnson 1/6 2 WAR

CF of choice out of the four 4/48 4 WAR

 

Which would give us a 100m payroll and we're looking at about 86-87 wins. Not terrible and a break out from Turner, Morrison (I'm already being pretty lenient with his WAR, hoping his defensive woes stop with the move to 1b), Eolvadi, Nolasco (:lol), or whoever would put us where we'd need to be (90+ wins), but it's not incredibly promising.

 

In other words, playing for 2013 with the roster as is isn't a terrible idea but it's not a great one either. Being able to ditch Bell and Nolasco before this deadline would give us another about another 38 million total to play with (I.E. a 4 year, 9.5m per contract). With that we could buy a SP to replace Nolasco with better production (2ish WAR) and just replace Bell from within/MILB FA.

 

This would also really help us after 2013 since we'd only have Buehrle going forward if we don't re-up JJ.

 

We could also optimally trade John Buck before the deadline and save about 9.5m, and then spend about 3-4m on a C that would give equal production and spend the rest on an upgraded bench.

 

If we can ditch Buck, Bell, and Nolasco's contracts and get nothing in return it's a huge, huge upgrade for us and something that greatly needs to be looked at doing.

 

2014

 

This team will likely be very similar to 2013. CF and 3B still need to be filled but Yelich should be ready by then. Some upgrade via free agency I would really like are:

-C (Throwing a rookie C out opening day who hasn't been all that good in the minors isn't likely a good idea, get a RH veteran behind/ahead of him)

-SP (WAY too many young guys. However Fernandez and Conley should be ready to come up around mid season and could even be opening day starters.).

 

If filling CF and 3b is about 20m total, that gives us about 10m for the above things. We are again looking like a mid to upper 80's win team that needs a break out to be a playoff contending team.

 

2015

 

Still a hole at 3b and now we lost Bonifacio to free agency so that's two IFers needed with nothing currently in the system.

 

We could save a good bit of money by clearing the bench and the bullpen (Replacing Sanchez, Ruggiano, Webb, Dunn and Leblanc with minimum guys saves about 5m). Hopefully by this point Brantly/Realmuto can handle the C and Yelich doesn't Hermida/Logan. Also still very young SP rotation, getting a veteran 5 not a bad idea.

 

But again, looking like a mid to uppers 80s win without a break out

 

2016

 

Last year of Logan, Stanton, and Cishek if no extensions and last year of pre-arb probably for Yelich and likely a bunch of SP. Buehlre is now gone at this point, so we would really need a SP break out at this point. Same holes as previous years, nothing changed.

 

TL;DR

 

We're currently set up as a ~.500 team that currently has several positions to fill. If we stick around 100m payroll and fill those holes efficiently, we are probably a mid-to-upper 80s team without a break out from one of our players. Dumping Nolasco and Bell before trade deadline helps considerably.

 

Makes me think more highly of a JJ trade although still only if it's an ace ransom

[Michael]

I love you, Johnny. :wub:

 

 

Seriously, though, great post.

[gizmo]

Good stuff man.

[Miami_Marlins_fan]

I'm a little more optimistic about this team's future than what you've suggested with your plan...enough that I started a savings fund to save money for the Marlins World Series tickets for 2015 or 2016. We are overdue for greatness again, and we will fix everything that went wrong this year. In fact, we will win at least 1 more World Series before the Cubs have a chance to finally win another...and I am willing to bet anything you want on that.

[Admin]

I wonder what their payroll expectations will be for 2013 and beyond. I believe Samson has said that they were projecting a nightly attendance average on the plus side of 30,000 (I think in the 32,000 range).

 

The Marlins have been averaging around 28,500 and you will have to expect that number only to go lower now that the club is out of contention and selling away players. Season ticket renewals will probably drop too on account of the stadium no longer being "new," less hype surrounding the talent, and the fact that tickets really weren't in demand for 2012. It seems like for almost every game you could get seats below face value on StubHub. I'd have to imagine that will hurt some of the season ticket renewals.

[Admin]

We could also optimally trade John Buck before the deadline and save about 9.5m, and then spend about 3-4m on a C that would give equal production and spend the rest on an upgraded bench.

 

If we can ditch Buck, Bell, and Nolasco's contracts and get nothing in return it's a huge, huge upgrade for us and something that greatly needs to be looked at doing.

 

Do you think this is realistic, though? I'd love to be freed of any of those contracts, but I just can't imagine any scenario where a team would be interested in adding them (let alone eating much or all of their contracts).

 

Buck, Nolasco, and Bell all seem pretty unmovable to me.

[Nny]

We could also optimally trade John Buck before the deadline and save about 9.5m, and then spend about 3-4m on a C that would give equal production and spend the rest on an upgraded bench.

 

If we can ditch Buck, Bell, and Nolasco's contracts and get nothing in return it's a huge, huge upgrade for us and something that greatly needs to be looked at doing.

 

Do you think this is realistic, though? I'd love to be freed of any of those contracts, but I just can't imagine any scenario where a team would be interested in adding them (let alone eating much or all of their contracts).

 

Buck, Nolasco, and Bell all seem pretty unmovable to me.

 

Unfortunate, not really. But if Toronto can move Vernon Wells, anything has the potential of happening?

 

I recall reading reports saying some teams (Mostly out west) would take on Bell's contract if it meant giving up nothing in return. I wish I could link to it now but oh well. All reports have to be taken with grains of salt.

 

In regards to Nolasco I think a contending team might to be a #5. His start yesterday just lowered the chance even more but if he can go out and be lights out one more time before the deadline maybe a team will pull the trigger? Unfortunately it's very unlikely.

 

Buck I just don't see happening at all really.

 

I don't expect to have the ability to move any of them but it would be really nice present to obtain

[Beetle]

Personally, would love it if we signed Pagán; even for a few months -- I would run out and buy that jersey. :mischief

[MiamiNative0722]

Bet you Loria goes all out this offseason again. 110 mill brings in 2 OF's 3B and a SP

[fanofthefish]

Good projection, I'm sure the team will take many twists and turns before 2015, but at least you can see a little hope for the future.

[yokofox33]

If we could get rid of at least one of those 3 contracts before the break I'd be ecstatic, preferably Bell's as it's longer. I don't mind having Buck on the team next year as he'll most likely improve slightly and we don't have anything to replace him really. Nolasco might make the most next year, but if we do move JJ we'll need something out there next year, especially if we don't sign a starter.

[97marlin]

if your projections are accurate, then if we trade nolasco replace him with sanabia/Hand/Leblanc/War 1.0. We free up 8.5m giving us a little more to work with. Also, Brantly is a prospect that could come in and produce at a high level, maybe give a war of .8 as a backup catcher.

[EricWiener]

2013: Buck, Morrison, Bonifacio, Vacancy, Reyes, Vacancy, Ruggiano, Stanton - I am not filled with confidence.

[canada-marlin24]

Brantley is in the immediate plans. Hell be up later this year for sure. Hayes will also be gone next year.

[Erick]

What we do in the upcoming years is highly dependent on the progress/development of our young pitching. I think predicting what pitching prospects are going to become is rather difficult.

[Adrenaline]

What we do in the upcoming years is highly dependent on the progress/development of our young pitching. I think predicting what pitching prospects are going to become is rather difficult.

 

Very true, we can only hope for a positive outcome.

[Admin]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

[Admin]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

Feels like almost all never do.

I don't think I would say that, but I will say that I am not enthused about Beinfest/Hill/Samson/Loria presiding over the "new" Marlins.

 

Samson was on the radio yesterday saying that Loria will re-evaluate all of the jobs in the offseason. I really hope he shakes things up. I want a new perspective.

[Anonymous]

Hopefully, a Sabermetrics perspective.

[Erick]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

Feels like almost all never do.

I don't think I would say that, but I will say that I am not enthused about Beinfest/Hill/Samson/Loria presiding over the "new" Marlins.

 

Samson was on the radio yesterday saying that Loria will re-evaluate all of the jobs in the offseason. I really hope he shakes things up. I want a new perspective.

 

If Loria is going to shake things up, it's incredibly stupid to let Beinfest and Hill makes these moves in July. The past two deals were significant. I doubt Beinfest/Hill get fired after the season.

[Erick]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

 

 

I understand that, just saying.

[Admin]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

Feels like almost all never do.

I don't think I would say that, but I will say that I am not enthused about Beinfest/Hill/Samson/Loria presiding over the "new" Marlins.

 

Samson was on the radio yesterday saying that Loria will re-evaluate all of the jobs in the offseason. I really hope he shakes things up. I want a new perspective.

 

If Loria is going to shake things up, it's incredibly stupid to let Beinfest and Hill makes these moves in July. The past two deals were significant. I doubt Beinfest/Hill get fired after the season.

That's not necessarily true.

 

The Marlins had a pretty small window to make these decisions. From what I can gather, they were still considering buying talent up until the Chicago and Pittsburgh series.

 

Let's say the Marlins did fire Beinfest/Hill during the Pittsburgh series. Do you actually expect them to interview and select a replacement GM candidate during the short window before the trade deadline and still manage to negotiate trades? Where are they going to find someone who will be familiar with the Marlins minor league system in that short period of time?

 

Firing an executive is not the same as firing a manager like Fredi Gonzalez where you can just bring any warm body in as a replacement. I imagine that Loria did not even consider before the season that he would need to contemplate firing Beinfest/Hill.

 

So yeah, I can understand that if Loria has soured on Beinfest he might not want him doing the selling, but replacing him now before the deadline would be a rash move. The smart move would be to keep them and "re-evaluate" in the offseason when there is more time to sort things out--which is what Samson said they are doing.

 

I don't necessarily predict that the Marlins fire them, either. I'm saying that I wish they would. The biggest complication is the fact that Hill and Beinfest have pretty sizable contracts on the books, so it would be a hefty buy out. Since Loria seems so committed to winning and Samson is so openly admitting that the baseball people f***ed up that I wouldn't be surprised if they get bought out.

[gizmo]

You usually run into problems when you project the best case scenario for the talent. That's the mistake that was made when before this season.

 

Some of that young talent isn't going to pan out or meet expectations.

Feels like almost all never do.

I don't think I would say that, but I will say that I am not enthused about Beinfest/Hill/Samson/Loria presiding over the "new" Marlins.

 

Samson was on the radio yesterday saying that Loria will re-evaluate all of the jobs in the offseason. I really hope he shakes things up. I want a new perspective.

 

If Loria is going to shake things up, it's incredibly stupid to let Beinfest and Hill makes these moves in July. The past two deals were significant. I doubt Beinfest/Hill get fired after the season.

That's not necessarily true.

 

The Marlins had a pretty small window to make these decisions. From what I can gather, they were still considering buying talent up until the Chicago and Pittsburgh series.

 

Let's say the Marlins did fire Beinfest/Hill during the Pittsburgh series. Do you actually expect them to interview and select a replacement GM candidate during the short window before the trade deadline and still manage to negotiate trades? Where are they going to find someone who will be familiar with the Marlins minor league system in that short period of time?

 

Firing an executive is not the same as firing a manager like Fredi Gonzalez where you can just bring any warm body in as a replacement. I imagine that Loria did not even consider before the season that he would need to contemplate firing Beinfest/Hill.

 

So yeah, I can understand that if Loria has soured on Beinfest he might not want him doing the selling, but replacing him now before the deadline would be a rash move. The smart move would be to keep them and "re-evaluate" in the offseason when there is more time to sort things out--which is what Samson said they are doing.

 

I don't necessarily predict that the Marlins fire them, either. I'm saying that I wish they would. The biggest complication is the fact that Hill and Beinfest have pretty sizable contracts on the books, so it would be a hefty buy out. Since Loria seems so committed to winning and Samson is so openly admitting that the baseball people f***ed up that I wouldn't be surprised if they get bought out.

 

Dan Jennings, the assistant GM, is probably our best internal candidate to replace Beinfest. I think there was an article with an anonymous baseball exec echoing that same sentiment.

[Admin]

I think that under the present circumstances the Marlins should clean house. They needed to look externally.

[Puma]

I am on the "Beinfest/hill need to go" train. This year will mark the 9th straight season of missing the playoffs, and the team currently has the third longest playoff drought in the NL, with potential to be the longest drought if the Nats and Pirates make the playoffs this year. If you want to get technical, the 2003 team was mostly a construct of Dave Dombrowski, although Beinfest did add some key pieces.. So really, going back to Beinfests days in Montreal, he has never constructed a playoff caliber team on his own.