The Verducci effect is a farce y'all. Regardless, if Jose does get hurt in one of these last starts, the FO will have another PR nightmare on their hands. I know they could care less, but still.

risk vs reward

 

 

the risk may be low but it's not zero.

 

reward? there is none, Jose is already awesome and established and the Marlins are playing for nothing.

 

If that's the case then the Marlins should've shut him down after the midsummer classic when he was ERAing a 2.71 on an already bottom dwelling team.

 

 

That's a dumb thing to say. The Marlins needed to increase Fernandez's IP workload from what it was last season. Teams have historically tried to increase IP by 30 or so each season for young pitchers. The idea is that increasing the workload in marginal increments would alleviate stress on the connective tissues and also build up arm strength safely.

 

Shutting him down in July wouldn't have done Fernandez any good, either.

 

 

 

This type of inning management strategy seems to be logical however pitchers who started their careers in the old days and were not "babied' pitched a lot more innings and were much more durable than the "babied" pitchers.

risk vs reward

 

 

the risk may be low but it's not zero.

 

reward? there is none, Jose is already awesome and established and the Marlins are playing for nothing.

 

If that's the case then the Marlins should've shut him down after the midsummer classic when he was ERAing a 2.71 on an already bottom dwelling team.

 

 

That's a dumb thing to say. The Marlins needed to increase Fernandez's IP workload from what it was last season. Teams have historically tried to increase IP by 30 or so each season for young pitchers. The idea is that increasing the workload in marginal increments would alleviate stress on the connective tissues and also build up arm strength safely.

 

Shutting him down in July wouldn't have done Fernandez any good, either.

 

 

 

This type of inning management strategy seems to be logical however pitchers who started their careers in the old days and were not "babied' pitched a lot more innings and were much more durable than the "babied" pitchers.

 

 

 

 

I could be wrong, but don't pitchers today throw harder and more breaking stuff? I imagine that having a dramatic effect on their arms now.

risk vs reward

 

 

the risk may be low but it's not zero.

 

reward? there is none, Jose is already awesome and established and the Marlins are playing for nothing.

 

If that's the case then the Marlins should've shut him down after the midsummer classic when he was ERAing a 2.71 on an already bottom dwelling team.

 

 

That's a dumb thing to say. The Marlins needed to increase Fernandez's IP workload from what it was last season. Teams have historically tried to increase IP by 30 or so each season for young pitchers. The idea is that increasing the workload in marginal increments would alleviate stress on the connective tissues and also build up arm strength safely.

 

Shutting him down in July wouldn't have done Fernandez any good, either.

 

 

 

This type of inning management strategy seems to be logical however pitchers who started their careers in the old days and were not "babied' pitched a lot more innings and were much more durable than the "babied" pitchers.

 

 

 

 

This seems like a fallacy to me. There's really no logical reason to compare pitchers from different eras for the reasons stated already in this thread.

 

There are a number of factors that weigh into a young pitcher's injury risk. Mechanics, velocity, pitch selection of contemporary pitchers likely make them more at risk, but incremental increases in IP is probably one way to alleviate it.

Pitchers in highschool also throw way harder. So the damage starts very early now.

 

 

This is true, I think.

That pitchers in the old days pitched more innings is not debatable. That's a fact. The reasons for the changes in durability are debatable.

That pitchers in the old days pitched more innings is not debatable. That's a fact. The reasons for the changes in durability are debatable.

 

 

Nobody said otherwise. I don't think the fact that pitchers threw more innings in the old days is sufficient to make the comparison you and some others are trying to make in this thread.

The Verducci effect is a farce y'all. Regardless, if Jose does get hurt in one of these last starts, the FO will have another PR nightmare on their hands. I know they could care less, but still.

 

 

So you are for shutting him down now, before he gets to that 170 innings? He's at 158.2 innings right now and averages just a tad over 6 innings a start. That's pretty much right on schedule. I don't think if he does get hurt in one of these last two it would be such a PR nightmare. Maybe with the ones that were complaining they were planning on shutting him down at 170 doing an about face and saying they should have shut him down sooner. The normal armchair, hindsight, "I will never admit I was wrong" type fans.

Pitchers in highschool also throw way harder. So the damage starts very early now.

 

 

This is true, I think.

 

 

IMO, there's plenty of blame to go around. Coaches and parents included. Should kids that young be taught and encouraged to throw certain pitches, such as curves? Some pitches are alot of stress on very under developed arms. How about players that pitch one day, and the other days are playing another position? No time in between to rest that arm.

 

A lot of arguments going both ways on this topic.

The Verducci effect is a farce y'all. Regardless, if Jose does get hurt in one of these last starts, the FO will have another PR nightmare on their hands. I know they could care less, but still.

 

 

So you are for shutting him down now, before he gets to that 170 innings? He's at 158.2 innings right now and averages just a tad over 6 innings a start. That's pretty much right on schedule. I don't think if he does get hurt in one of these last two it would be such a PR nightmare. Maybe with the ones that were complaining they were planning on shutting him down at 170 doing an about face and saying they should have shut him down sooner. The normal armchair, hindsight, "I will never admit I was wrong" type fans.

 

 

His average velocity on his FB has dropped from his last 5 starts compared to his previous 12 starts before those 5. I think he's getting tired, and I can't really see it being a good thing to keep pitching a guy if he's tired, so I say shut him down now. But maybe the coaches are having him not pitch as hard etc or there is some other reason or maybe these few extra days of rest will help. Small sample and all that. I really don't know. I just don't see the point of starting him again this year, although I am excited to see him a few more times so for now all I can do is sit back and watch the man pitch.

Jose won his second straight Rookie of the Month honors today.

So, some fun stats for Fernandez in the NL:

 

 

WAR: 5.5 [7th overall, 3rd among pitchers in NL]

ERA: 2.33 [3rd]

WHIP: 0.996 [3rd]

H/9 : 5.956 *[1st]*

K/9 : 9.813 *[1st]*

K's : 173 [9th]

HR/9: 0.510 [5th]

ERA+: 169 [2nd]

This is among ALL NL pitchers, not just rookies. He's first in all rookie ones, I do believe.

Rookie of the Year.

Pitchers in highschool also throw way harder. So the damage starts very early now.

 

 

This is true, I think.

 

 

 

IMO, there's plenty of blame to go around. Coaches and parents included. Should kids that young be taught and encouraged to throw certain pitches, such as curves? Some pitches are alot of stress on very under developed arms. How about players that pitch one day, and the other days are playing another position? No time in between to rest that arm.

 

A lot of arguments going both ways on this topic.

 

 

I'm with Bob on this one. Kids start so young and many never get adequate rest. They learn to throw very stressful pitches early on and coaches and parents push push push, abusing their arm. By highschool they are worried about scouts, and can throw 90+ mph. In highschool.

 

Its good to be dedicated but imagine your arm going through that much. Then college ball and pro ball. And some of you think they just need to pitch more.

 

 

 

 

If we are correct, then I really don't see a viable solution to the problem. Parents and coaches are gonna push. The kids have visions of piles of $$$ dancing in their heads. I suppose one could be pitchers pitch. Period. BUT A lot of players have been drafted as pitchers only to play a different position in the pros, for whatever reason. Scouts want to see all around players.

The Verducci effect is a farce y'all. Regardless, if Jose does get hurt in one of these last starts, the FO will have another PR nightmare on their hands. I know they could care less, but still.

 

 

So you are for shutting him down now, before he gets to that 170 innings? He's at 158.2 innings right now and averages just a tad over 6 innings a start. That's pretty much right on schedule. I don't think if he does get hurt in one of these last two it would be such a PR nightmare. Maybe with the ones that were complaining they were planning on shutting him down at 170 doing an about face and saying they should have shut him down sooner. The normal armchair, hindsight, "I will never admit I was wrong" type fans.

 

 

His average velocity on his FB has dropped from his last 5 starts compared to his previous 12 starts before those 5. I think he's getting tired, and I can't really see it being a good thing to keep pitching a guy if he's tired, so I say shut him down now. But maybe the coaches are having him not pitch as hard etc or there is some other reason or maybe these few extra days of rest will help. Small sample and all that. I really don't know. I just don't see the point of starting him again this year, although I am excited to see him a few more times so for now all I can do is sit back and watch the man pitch.

 

 

 

 

I look at it as having a plan and sticking to it. They are working him up to being able to handle a full season at this level. To the point of shutting him down in some games when he wanted to go further. Working your body to the point you are tired is part of the building process. If you just work out the same every time and quit before some fatigue sets in, you never get past that point. Let him get these next two starts, give him a good off season program, and monitor it.

My 4 year-old is already aware that unless he can throw the ball all the way across the yard by December then Santa Claus isn't visiting this house.

My 4 year-old is already aware that unless he can throw the ball all the way across the yard by December then Santa Claus isn't visiting this house.

 

He better be able to throw at least 40 by the time he's 5. I want him winning the t-ball gold glove.

My 4 year-old is already aware that unless he can throw the ball all the way across the yard by December then Santa Claus isn't visiting this house.

 

 

If he's not throwing a decent 12-6 curve by age 5, you've failed as a parent.

i think he'll be done with rehab from the shoulder surgery by then so really he should be right on track.

i think he'll be done with rehab from the shoulder surgery by then so really he should be right on track.

 

 

Tommy John Junior Surgery

My 4 year-old is already aware that unless he can throw the ball all the way across the yard by December then Santa Claus isn't visiting this house.

 

 

Thats awesome!

I still say that another 6 or 12 or 18 innings simply doesn't matter, he's earned the right to pitch beyond the arbitrary limit of his upcoming last start against ATL.

 

Instead of faltering or struggling or acting tired, he blew out WSH. He throws 98 or 99 like it's nothing. He bends curveballs for strikes routinely. He embarrasses hitters and then smiles at them. After the 1st inning, I wondered what Redmond would do if he was still pitching a perfect game after 6, and he damned near did it. Later, it was revealed that Redmond had told him not to be concerned with innings, he would get another start.

 

But, even at that, the entire proposition is slightly ridiculous. 170? Obviously not set in stone. 180? What's the big deal versus 170? 190? OK, that's probably enough. About 45 more than he threw last year. But 190 would give him his last 3 starts.

 

This team, crappy as it is, is an entirely different team when he pitches, to wit:

 

Through 112 non-Fernandez starts, they're hitting .229 and scoring 3.15 runs/game.

 

In 27 Fernandez starts, .244 and 3.67 runs/game.

 

In 9 starts since the All-Star break, .258 and 4.33 runs/game. MLB average is .254.

 

Now, the improvement in Fernandez starts is certainly not all due to Fernandez, but there is no doubt that this team gets motivated and excited and plays significantly better when he pitches JUST BECAUSE FERNANDEZ IS PITCHING.

 

Why deprive a guy who should be ROY of 20 innings and the chance to nail it down beyond all doubt, never mind the teammates who want to play behind him?

 

A team that's 36-76 when he doesn't pitch is 17-10 when he pitches. That's championship-level baseball. Let him pitch.

Clearly what we need to do is clone him 4 times and have him start every game. 17-10 extrapolated to 162 games is 102-60.

 

But, seriously. I'd be all for him getting to finish off the season, but it'd only make sense if we were in contention. Let him relax at 172.2 [or 173.2, or 174.2] - once he passes the 170 mark in his next start, let him finish off what he can do in that game, and then shut him down. Next season, he can do 195-200, or I believe that's the hope. By the time we're ready to contend, he'll be able to knock out 210, 220, maybe more. Let's say he gets 34 starts in 2015 and averages 6.2 innings - 227 innings [around that].

 

There's no reason to overdo him this year. Some would argue he's already overworked, which I disagree with. After his next/final start, he'll be close to 40 innings more than he pitched last year [he'll be 0.2 innings over 40 more if he happens to go all 9], and that's more than enough. No need to stretch him to 45, 50, 60 innings more than he's ever thrown in one season.

If we shut him down at 170 IP this season, we better not baby his arm next season. That's 200 IP the minimum.

If we shut him down at 170 IP this season, we better not baby his arm next season. That's 200 IP the minimum.

 

 

Based upon typical innings increase increments (30 IP), 200 IP should be about the maximum, not minimum.