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8/14 Post Game


Michael

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I think this is someone coming up to replace Koehler in the rotation with Koehler moving to long relief.

 

 

Fernandez will be shut down pretty soon, He will probably get one or two more starts, Also Ames was not really being used much, gives him a chance for more innings in the minors...BTW don't be surprised if the Marlins might have 2 5th starters for awhile

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back to the game, nice to finally see some runs but this wasn't one of those outings where I feel real optimistic about Turner ultimately being that strong #2 guy. Granted the defense didn't do him any favors today and he battles pretty well when he doesn't have his best stuff... I'm fine with him in the rotation long-term but just not sure how he's going to end up. He started off the season well enough but lately there are some stats going in the wrong direction.

 

Someone else could make a big leap up but ultimately I think it needs to be Andrew Heaney taking that #2 spot.

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hey guys i don't know where to post this so i'll just post this here and you all can eat gravy

 

When facing the Marlins, who’ve scored by far the fewest runs in all of baseball this season, Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg have a combined 4.50 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 32.0 innings. Against the rest of MLB, they have a combined 2.20 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 274.0 innings.

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And if Eovaldi can continue controlling his fastball and improving on his slider (and throwing more change-ups! He's averaging 2 per game, literally), then a 1-4 of:

 

Fernandez

Heaney

Eovaldi

Turner

Whothef***everelse

 

Looks pretty good.

 

 

Idk why Alvarez would be bunched up int he :"Whoeverthefuckelse" group. Dude is a stud, IMO. I had a feeling pitching in the NL, and in Marlins Park, would help him tremendously and it definitely has. His stuff is absolutely electric, and I love how he still pitches to contact and goes deep into every game. I also love his bat... lol

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I think Eovaldi and Desclafini will be in the bullpen longterm. Maybe Eovaldi stays in the rotation since he has been really good this year but i think he would be an incredible closer, plus Desclafini is a reliever in college.

 

Fernandez

Heaney

Turner

Nicolino

Alvarez

 

Relievers- Eovaldi, Flynn, Desclafini

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Based on the most recent article on the Marlins website, I get the feeling that they'll be calling up Sam Dyson for Ames. His name is brought up a lot, he's already on the 40-man and he's put up a good ERA. He does not strike guys out, but it seems like he's a sinkerballer. His HR/9 rates are pretty impressive and scouts seem to like his stuff.

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Based on the most recent article on the Marlins website, I get the feeling that they'll be calling up Sam Dyson for Ames. His name is brought up a lot, he's already on the 40-man and he's put up a good ERA. He does not strike guys out, but it seems like he's a sinkerballer. His HR/9 rates are pretty impressive and scouts seem to like his stuff.

 

 

Caminero from the Suns is coming up, per the Jax Times Union

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Based on the most recent article on the Marlins website, I get the feeling that they'll be calling up Sam Dyson for Ames. His name is brought up a lot, he's already on the 40-man and he's put up a good ERA. He does not strike guys out, but it seems like he's a sinkerballer. His HR/9 rates are pretty impressive and scouts seem to like his stuff.

 

 

Caminero from the Suns is coming up, per the Jax Times Union

 

 

Doesn't he throw 100?

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Based on the most recent article on the Marlins website, I get the feeling that they'll be calling up Sam Dyson for Ames. His name is brought up a lot, he's already on the 40-man and he's put up a good ERA. He does not strike guys out, but it seems like he's a sinkerballer. His HR/9 rates are pretty impressive and scouts seem to like his stuff.

 

 

Caminero from the Suns is coming up, per the Jax Times Union

 

 

Doesn't he throw 100?

 

 

 

He'll throw 100 occasionally, sits more consistently at 98. Does not have a smooth throwing motion.

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And if Eovaldi can continue controlling his fastball and improving on his slider (and throwing more change-ups! He's averaging 2 per game, literally), then a 1-4 of:

 

Fernandez

Heaney

Eovaldi

Turner

Whothef***everelse

 

Looks pretty good.

 

 

Idk why Alvarez would be bunched up int he :"Whoeverthef***else" group. Dude is a stud, IMO. I had a feeling pitching in the NL, and in Marlins Park, would help him tremendously and it definitely has. His stuff is absolutely electric, and I love how he still pitches to contact and goes deep into every game. I also love his bat... lol

 

 

You make some really ridiculous statements sometimes.

 

If his stuff is so "electric," why are his K rates so sh*tty? 4.8 K/9 is worse than what Jamie Moyer was doing at age 49 (6.0). He's getting ridiculously lucky, considering his line drive rates are up there (25.9%) and another 24.7% are fly balls (with only 7.7% of balls put in play being infield fly balls).

 

Eovaldi is similar, and you said, and I quote, "Eovaldi has top 5 stuff in all of baseball." His line drive rates are lower, but he gives up more fly balls and less ground balls than Alvarez, as well, and similarly, his K/9 is bad. Remember that Jamie Moyer K/9 rate at age 49? Eovaldi with his "top 5 stuff in all of baseball" has a K/9 of 6.1.

 

Both of these guys are getting lucky, and Eovaldi is getting extremely lucky, I believe. His xFIP is 4.40 (FIP is 3.83). Alvarez is at 3.74 (2.94), but I really believe that's due to lack of homers hit off of him - just the one he allowed to Freeman. Another thing that helps Alvarez here is he doesn't walk very many, where Eovaldi has almost double what Alvarez does per 9.

 

I'm giving Eovaldi a chance at a rotation spot because I'm seeing improvement in his slider, but I'm still not sold on him - he also needs to get his curve and change in check and throw them more often - get hitters off of the fastball and slider. The reason a good number of people are saying he'd be better in the bullpen (right now) is because all he does is throw the fastball and slider. You can't really succeed as a starter with two pitches.

 

Alvarez, however, I just don't see it right now. His change-up is basically just another fastball (his fastball is averaging in the low-mid 90s, change-up just under 90), so that's probably working against him big time. In fact, his change-up is so close to his fastball in velocity, BrooksBaseball says he hasn't thrown a single change-up this month. He gets hit hard a lot, and yeah, you're right, playing in Marlins Park HAS helped him ... with his ERA. And that's it.

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I'm a big believer in Alvarez. Not Eovaldi. I would rather have Alvarez in the rotation that Eovaldi.

 

 

Care to elaborate on that?

 

The Marlins are reportedly saying their 4 current rotation guys (Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, Alvarez) are untouchable in trades with Heaney also off the table. Jose and Heaney are for obvious reasons, but Alvarez is the lesser pitcher of the other three right now.

 

I'm 100% with Bender on this one.

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Eovaldi has one thing on his side, and he is the one pitcher with a clearly measurable difference in performance this year: his new, faster fastball. Quietly, Captain EO's fastball has jumped two miles per hour this season, up to 96.1 mph on average this season. Such an improvement is correlated with a 0.6 to 0.9 runs per game drop in ERA, and that is akin to what we have seen thus far this season.

 

The issue is that, while the fastball has improved, the rest of his arsenal still has not. His secondary pitches still remain weak. His strikeouts are up, so are his walks. The major contributor so far this year to his stellar performance (2.86 ERA, 3.83 FIP) is a low home run rate and a .231 BABIP. Neither of those will last for much longer (or at the very least, they are more likely to go up), so we cannot be sure just how much Eovaldi has improved.

 

 

 

I will admit the last few starts from Eovaldi have impressed me, I'm still wanting to see more for reasons Bender has said above and in that quote. The key for him is showing that slider/curve and throwing some more changeups to lefties.

 

Eovaldi throws his FB% 71.9% of the time through his 60 odd innings (12th highest out of 169 - small sample size though) which is slightly below Shelby Miller (73.6% - 6th). They're both guys with + fastball stuff right now where the "scouting report" says they need to bring up their secondary pitches. Don't be silly and think I'm saying Eovaldi is better then Shelby Miller. That's not the point of the comparison, the point is they've been pitchers heavily reliant on their fastball this year.

 

I could go through several versions of this, but for wFB (fastball runs above average) you have Kershaw at #1, Harvey at #2 with Miller at #11 and Eovaldi at #22. Jose Fernandez is at #25. Just for the record, Jose is #5 in the value of his slider! Yu Darvish is waaaaay #1 with that particular pitch.

 

For wFB/C (fastball runs above average per 100 pitches) you have Harvey at #1, Tommy Hunter at #2 with Eovaldi at #7 out of 169 pitchers.

 

Its a small sample size and Eovaldi has a lot of work to do, but he has a good start with one dominating pitch and so far... it has been pretty f***ing dominating. That's the point... ITS A START.

 

His K/9 rates are disappointing and we'd like to see them come up, but judging on potential so far... I still see more in Eovaldi right now. There's still a ways to go.

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I'm a big believer in Alvarez. Not Eovaldi. I would rather have Alvarez in the rotation that Eovaldi.

 

 

Care to elaborate on that?

 

The Marlins are reportedly saying their 4 current rotation guys (Fernandez, Turner, Eovaldi, Alvarez) are untouchable in trades with Heaney also off the table. Jose and Heaney are for obvious reasons, but Alvarez is the lesser pitcher of the other three right now.

 

I'm 100% with Bender on this one.

 

 

He's a very good GB pitcher that has excellent control. The Ks are alarming but at the same time Buehrle has had success with a low K rate. I think right now his LD rate is higher than you want but he's pitched in only 51 innings, and it's been decreasing over the last 3 games which is a good sign. As of now, he's lucky with the HomeRuns, so that will jump up obviously. But it's not like I expected him to maintain such a low ERA all season. For me, I think he's ahead of Eovaldi and possibly Turner right now.

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His line drive rate may be going down as of the last three games, but his ERA has inflated in that particular trio of starts. His ERA in his first five starts was 2.64, and the last three has been 3.98. The BABIP in the first five was actually higher (.293) than the last three (.273), but they've actually been hitting the ball harder (last three games, the fly ball rate has been overall higher), and the slugging percentage against him has shown this - .345 in first five compared to .403 in last three. He does have good control, as shown by his walk rates, but for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched (since you mentioned his 51 innings), his LD% ranks seventh.

 

The ground ball rates are good, though, yes. I wish there was a number for "hard/soft hit" ground balls, though. That would probably be pretty telling.

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Well... Alvarez does have a decent BB/9 at this point - it is good enough for 40th in MLB. His ground balls are good enough for 64th out of 223 odd as this is a very small sample size. As such, pretty much all of the MLB ranks in this post are out of 223 players. But, hey, this is the discussion so we have to go with it.

 

He's not in the zone as much as you'd like to think though, he's behind Eovaldi in that regard (23rd in MLB vs. 40th) and hitters are making more contact against Alvarez in the strikezone. They're also swinging and making more contact against Alvarez outside of the strikezone. Eovaldi is actually 32nd in MLB at the % of pitches a batter swings at inside of the strike zone although he isn't so high when it comes to the contact rates in this regard. He is still ahead of Alvarez though and, obviously, ahead of him in swinging at strikes that were missed as well.

 

Alvarez is 15th from bottom in that regard, he's just not missing any bats. It's not surprising that he has good BB rates when he's also 14th in MLB (still out of 223 players) in the amount of contact hitters make. Bartolo Colon is #1 in that regard and he has put up some good overall numbers this season in a 150 inning sample size. One difference is that Colon has good pitch value in his slider as well as his 2 seamer/sinker. His slider is 39 in MLB with the same value as Mike Dunn. The 2 seamer from Colon has superior value though of course (31 in MLB).

 

So, hey, who knows what could happen.

 

You look at his .285 BABIP and you think, “well golly, that’s not far from his career .288.� But you plug in his hit trajectory into the trusty expected BABIP and it ought to sit somewhere about .100 points higher. If batters continue to square up balls at this rate, they’re going to start to go places where people aren’t standing. Couple that with the likelihood that a few balls leave the yard and its not looking so good.

Eovaldi is able to blow people away with that fastball in the strike zone this year although, as we've said, his slider/curve and changeup need to come into play more. Hitters are also making some contact against those pitches in the strikezone. The scouting report on him has been out for years and why he's constantly mentioned as possible bullpen material. The slider has been working better lately and if the value on that pitch continues to increase, its likely to have an impact on his K/9 etc. He should also be able to pitch outside of the zone a little more and get those strikeouts up.

 

Alvarez has decent value in his 2 seamer/sinker, but very little in other areas. As I posted before, his main pitch against Eovaldi's isn't even close in value right now. Alvarez has a 72.5% (21 in MLB) use of his fastball compared to Eovaldi at 71.9% (27 in MLB). That is out of 223 players so they're both proving to be heavily reliant on one pitch right now. They both have work to do in bringing up their secondary pitches.

 

It'll be interesting to take a look at this again at the end of the season as small sample sizes are exactly that. But, you know, that is the conversation at hand so what can you do? I'd still go with Eovaldi at this stage and I still see him as having "better stuff".

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His line drive rate may be going down as of the last three games, but his ERA has inflated in that particular trio of starts. His ERA in his first five starts was 2.64, and the last three has been 3.98. The BABIP in the first five was actually higher (.293) than the last three (.273), but they've actually been hitting the ball harder (last three games, the fly ball rate has been overall higher), and the slugging percentage against him has shown this - .345 in first five compared to .403 in last three. He does have good control, as shown by his walk rates, but for pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched (since you mentioned his 51 innings), his LD% ranks seventh.

 

The ground ball rates are good, though, yes. I wish there was a number for "hard/soft hit" ground balls, though. That would probably be pretty telling.

 

 

I get the hard/soft thing, but really a ground ball is a ground ball and that's what HA is good at. What % of ground balls actually get out of the infield I wonder....

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