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Stanton Open to Return- With Security


Jagsfreak27
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http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10443493/giancarlo-stanton-open-long-term-extension-miami-marlins

 

This is probably the best news of the offseason for me. I go to a lot of Suns games and I've chatted with the owner multiple times and he is really adamant that Giancarlo wants to be a Dodger. I really, really think he wants to stay, he just wants to see some kind of a sign from the organization that they want to win and head in the right direction.

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Stanton doesn't want to stay in Miami. He will if they throw a boatload of cash at him and the years are limited enough to allow him to be a free agent in his prime (huge). It's that simple. 5 years, $90-100 million. That will get it done and thats all the Marlins can hope for at this time. next offseason, when he is guaranteed another significant arbitration tender, makes it worse and no shot they offer him a contract $200+ million because this is Loria we're talking about.

 

Enjoy him while he is here.

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Stanton doesn't want to stay in Miami. He will if they throw a boatload of cash at him and the years are limited enough to allow him to be a free agent in his prime (huge). It's that simple. 5 years, $90-100 million. That will get it done and thats all the Marlins can hope for at this time. next offseason, when he is guaranteed another significant arbitration tender, makes it worse and no shot they offer him a contract $200+ million because this is Loria we're talking about.

 

Enjoy him while he is here.

He used the words "very pleased" when describing the Fish. I can't remember the last time I heard that from a Marlins star.

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He used the words "very pleased" when describing the Fish. I can't remember the last time I heard that from a Marlins star.

 

This is what he said:

 

"I'm very pleased with how things panned out for me. But I would like to see [the team] grow. I have my security somewhat now. I'd like to see a team full of that."

 

 

He said he's very pleased with his situation. I interpret that as being pleased with the way his career is turning out. I'm pretty sure he's not 'very pleased' with the organization.

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I took it as he is happy with the current contract. Him saying he dosen't want to deal with negotiations during the season seems to escape some people here. "Just throw more $$$ at him. It's the cure all."

Locking yourself (and your grand children) up for life with $50 million after taxes, paying your agent, etc. (assuming its around a $90-100 deal) is certainly not a cure all to a guy who has made under $2 million in his career and has a modest arbitration tender for $6.5 million (pre-tax) right now. If he gets seriously hurt - that's it. You are naive to think Stanton would turn down a massive 4-5 years extension that sets him up for life and allows him to be a free agent in his prime under 30 years old. That's the balance - set yourself up for life, but don't drastically limit your financial potential and give away prime years you can sell in free agency (you can bet your ass when Trout signs an extension with Angels, he will demand he becomes a free agent 29-30 years old and if not the Angels are going to seriously pay for it. Angels can maybe afford that, Marlins cannot, plus Stanton's not so secret desire to get back out West). Risking your financial future is not worth it when faced with the reality you have 2 more arbitration years and 3 seasons where something could go wrong. It's not smart and bad business compared to "oh I just hate the Marlins." So what, it's the longterm what Stanton's agent is going to hammer into his head and say, listen you are risking a ton by not taking this guaranteed money right now, and maybe it works out, but maybe it doesn't. $100 million is big gamble.

 

You take the money. It's obvious. There is no doubt in my mind if they offered him 5/$100 extension before the season (before the HR barrage starts) he signs quickly and is thrilled. It is silly to think otherwise. It is the cure all, for Stanton. Now if he was a year away from free agency, and already has two years of arbitration and two 35+ HR seasons under his belt in 2014/2015, this analysis is radically different and you go to free agency. But 3 years out? No way sir.

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Losing is no fun, so I read into what he said is that he won't accept a long term contract from the Fish if they don't start trying to win. That being said, the pitching staff is looking pretty good for the future. If the Marlins just spent a little more money for a couple of legit veteran hitters to put in front and behind Stanton in the lineup, I think the can be a good team and convince him to stay.

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Losing is no fun, so I read into what he said is that he won't accept a long term contract from the Fish if they don't start trying to win. That being said, the pitching staff is looking pretty good for the future. If the Marlins just spent a little more money for a couple of legit veteran hitters to put in front and behind Stanton in the lineup, I think the can be a good team and convince him to stay.

 

This is a good point in the sense that "team security" doesn't automatically mean three world championships, 12 guys with long term no trade clause deals, and Loria himself being ousted. Team security could be a vague term and Stanton is the only who knows what he has in mind.

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He's going to cost more than $100 mil in a long-term deal, just look at what Freeman got.

 

also that 'pleased' comment was the fact that the team didn't lowball him on the 1-year deal he just got. They could have taken him to arbitration, but obviously they are trying to keep him as happy as they can for now.

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He's going to cost more than $100 mil in a long-term deal, just look at what Freeman got.

 

also that 'pleased' comment was the fact that the team didn't lowball him on the 1-year deal he just got. They could have taken him to arbitration, but obviously they are trying to keep him as happy as they can for now.

Freeman's deal is 8 years, Stanton getting $75-100 over 4-5 and to free agency sooner (Freeman will not be a free agent in prime), is significantly more valuable looking at the total deal.

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Locking yourself (and your grand children) up for life with $50 million after taxes, paying your agent, etc. (assuming its around a $90-100 deal) is certainly not a cure all to a guy who has made under $2 million in his .......

 

Didn't bother to read much past this. You are not getting the point. He dosen't WANT to talk contracts right now. He wants to wait til AFTER the season. He's making $6.5 mil this year, and if he only signs for one year again after this season (which is what I predict), he will make a ton more if he has a great season. A very nice bump up even if he dosen't. You don't push something on somebody just because it's something you want. That's pretty egotistical, and a good way to tick somebody off. Look at it as a sales pitch from the team to him, which basically it is. He has outright said the FO and ownership have alot to prove to him about team stability. It takes more than a year to do that.

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He's going to cost more than $100 mil in a long-term deal, just look at what Freeman got.

 

also that 'pleased' comment was the fact that the team didn't lowball him on the 1-year deal he just got. They could have taken him to arbitration, but obviously they are trying to keep him as happy as they can for now.

 

Pretty much right on. Missed the fact he didn't want to even talk about long term right now, just the one year deal. And keeping him as happy as they can for now also means not forcing him to think about any other contract. IOW, don't try to force feed him something he dosen't want. If they REALLY want to keep him they will have to sign some guys/names to no trade, long term contracts. If they don't do that then them continuously "leaking" they want to sign him long term is just public relations crap. So if things don't work out with him being here they can always say, "We tried our best. It's his fault he's gone."

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You entirely miss the point that he WILL sign for 4-5 years for 75-100 mill if it's offered, and it probably will be, assuming that some ridiculous trade offer doesn't come along. No matter what he or anyone says about the state of the team or anything else. Doesn't matter if Loria is bankrupt, some MLB team is gonna pay him every single dime of that money.

 

Everyone with 2 firing synapses on the planet would sign that deal, as opposed to possibly winding up with relative peanuts in the event of a serious or career-ending injury in the next 2-3 years. And we're talking about a guy with some experience of being on the DL for extended periods of time.

 

If there is a Marlins offer, when he signs it he'll be thinking about the 6-7 year deal for 200+ mill that he'll sign when he's 28-29.

 

It's a lot easier to take the long view of 200 mill when you already have 100 in the bank than it is to take the long view of 100 mill when you have 2 mill in the bank. (Divide everything by 2 to take account of federal and state income taxes, agents, managers, etc.)

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Loria doesn't need to sign anyone to keep Stanton, he just has to offer him the money. And even Stanton's deal wouldn't be no-trade, they don't do that, nor should they. Stanton would have zero objection to any deal that could trade him only to any CA team. But even that will never happen, it'll be trade me anytime, anywhere you want to.

 

They're hoping that Yelich, Ozuna, Moran, etc. provide good bats and they can trade excess pitching for any others they need, plugging in cheap FAs where needed.

 

The next deal after Stanton is to lock up Fernandez. The extra 25 mill/yr from the new MLB TV deal should be enough to cover those two guys. Beyond that, fans have to show up. The 2012 disaster happened because they spent, sucked, lost a lot of games, fans didn't show up and they lost about 60 mill for the year. That situation is not comparable to anything possible going forward.

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Does anyone here really think that, after the failed attempt in 2012, Loria is going to sign a some big-bat veterans to long-term, no trade deals in order to keep Stanton? It doesn't seem likely to me.

 

no I don't either. You could argue he probably had that in the back of his head when they went out & got Salty (he's not a huge FA but you get the idea).

 

But yeah what Loria is probabaly banking on is that the Eo/Alvarez/Yelich/Ozuna gang all look like really good pieces of a contending team this year. And that at least some of Heaney/Conley/Marisnick/Moran/Dietrich/etc tear it up in the minors.

Because then it's not really a matter of needing to go sign a bunch of pricey FA talent to surround Stanton. They'll have enough to make a run at it, just fill a hole here & there, and pick from the AA/AAA guys.

 

Course there's probably 12 other teams with that same outlook right now...

 

More likely is that they sit on their hands, make him an offer too late, then deal him for a young SP and infield prospect.

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More likely is that they sit on their hands, make him an offer too late, then deal him for a young SP and infield prospect.

 

Yep. This decision has already been made. Not signing him longterm the last two off seasons is a clear indication he is (somehow) not in their plans moving forward. They don't want to invest money in him. Maybe it's because they project his knees to breakdown next few years, or think the K's catch up to him, or are really confident in Yelich/Marisnick/Ozuna/Keys/Solarzano/etc. and plugging in one year stopgaps to cover the outfield for cheap the next few years so Stanton is worth more in a trade to get another 1/2 SP and some infielders (which then begs the question why don't do they do that now and supercharge Seattle…), or that they are just cheap and don't want to invest in the team prior to the inevitable Loria sale.

 

Whatever the reason, it just is what it is. Let's hope they get their heads out of their asses for Fernandez who amazingly is a more important piece than Stanton. They already botched his service time not keeping him down 20 days last year to get another year of service (the super 2 deadline is Juneish, but the extra year of service is end of April… such an amazing mistake that will cost them another $15-20 million if they keep him. They are so good at wasting money its unreal for a small market club), so hopefully they fix that wrong with a big deal next offseason assuming he brings it again this year.

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There are almost no bats available next offseason - even less than this offseason. I hope they just pull the plug on a deal during the deadline or next offseason. If we wait beyond that, then this front office might literally just be retarded.

Well, if they get a bat for Cishek at the deadline (likely), they rush Moran to 3B summer 2015 because that is what they do, and trade one of Eovaldi/Alvarez/Turner for a bat (and call up Heaney for the # 4 and sign a veteran SP for 1 year so your rotation is covered and not exposing any of the young SP depth to soon), you've potentially added 3 impact bats to a starting lineup of Stanton, Yelich, Salty, Marisnick/Ozuna, Hech, and G. Jones/Baker (assuming they platoon them….), and still maybe have some excess of Nicolino, Flynn, Conley, DeScalfani, Urena, Koehler, etc. to trade for more bats. It's kind of a nice scenario.

 

But the issue is, then Stanton is plucked off the team when the team is really rocking and rolling once everyone has their feet wet for 2-4 years… which is why they need to sign him so they have everyone under control during the "peak" years they have everybody on a low payroll and to go for it. Thus, the whole reoccurring "no vision" part.

 

It's just aggravating. They have really done a good job acquiring talent last 2 years and positioning themselves with a good young core. Getting Fernandez was just tremendous and franchise altering… but they are just still so unbelievably negligent with how they dealt with Stanton I don't know if any of it matters because as soon as they get good, he's going to be ripped from the team by trade or they just don't have another arbitration year left. So dumb. So, so dumb.

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