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Hot Stove (2021-2022 offseason)

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12 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

I flip flop so much with this. Some days I'm like yeah they're gonna finally go for it and then some days I'm like who am I kidding?

As Marlins diehard fans, we would be go nuts someday. 

When I read articles about the potential targets, there's so few and even less who are sure bets so I think this goes one of two ways.... either the Marlins throw their hands up and say well there's not much out there or the limited market will test how desperate they are to win and they might be forced to be more aggressive IF winning is actually a priority. There's not a lot of wiggle room is my point.

34 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

I believe the good record of Heat and Panthers would only motivate Marlins to win.

 

33 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

I believe they shouldn't and won't care what those teams do or don't do.

 

7 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

I flip flop so much with this. Some days I'm like yeah they're gonna finally go for it and then some days I'm like who am I kidding?

Same.  I have a glimmer of hope left, but not much.

7 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

When I read articles about the potential targets, there's so few and even less who are sure bets so I think this goes one of two ways.... either the Marlins throw their hands up and say well there's not much out there or the limited market will test how desperate they are to win and they might be forced to be more aggressive IF winning is actually a priority. There's not a lot of wiggle room is my point.

Given history, I'm inclined to say the former.  I hope they surprise us.

 

MLBTR put out their Top 50 FA predictions:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

This year seemed a little different in that they had 3 predictions per player from Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco (at least I don't remember them doing it this way before).  I included the 4 of them that at least 1 of the 3 predicted for the Marlins.


 

Quote

16.  Chris Taylor.  Four years, $64MM.

TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Mariners

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in June 2016, as a means of improving infield depth.  Taylor added the outfield to his repertoire in a breakout 2017 season, and won the NLCS MVP award that year.  Taylor has remained an above-average hitter ever since, and has a 114 wRC+ over the last three seasons.  Though he struggled to hit in September this year, “CT3” left a strong final impression with his huge playoff showing.  It was Taylor’s walk-off homer that propelled the Dodgers past the Cardinals in the Wild Card round, and he slugged three home runs in Game 5 of the NLCS to help the Dodgers force a Game 6.

Taylor has been deployed at second base, shortstop, third base, center field, and left field in his career.  Though he’s sometimes compared to Ben Zobrist, Taylor reaches free agency at an earlier age and with more defensive versatility.  He may not have quite the offensive track record Zobrist carried into free agency, but he’s very arguably a more attractive target for teams.

As expected, the Dodgers issued a qualifying offer to Taylor.  We expect him to take his shot at a multiyear deal, but certain clubs may shy away from surrendering a draft pick or two to sign him.  Taylor’s ability to play all over the diamond still makes him a potential fit for many teams, including the Blue Jays, White Sox, Mariners, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Rockies, Giants, and Cubs.


21.  Anthony Rizzo.  Three years, $45MM.

TD: Marlins / SA: Red Sox / AF: Braves

As the longtime face of the Cubs, it seemed like the club would hammer out an extension with Rizzo even if they intended to take a step back in 2022.  He’d already signed a seven-year extension in 2013, which turned into a nine-year contract once both club options were exercised.  As of March 31st of this year, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer was “very confident” a deal would get done and Rizzo had used the word “optimistic.”  The Cubs’ initial offer was reportedly for five years and $70MM, while Rizzo sought something closer to Paul Goldschmidt’s $130MM deal.  An agreement was not reached, and once the Cubs fell out of contention, Rizzo was traded to the Yankees.

At age 32, Rizzo’s play seems more solid than spectacular.  He’s posted a 109 wRC+ in 819 plate appearances since 2020, roughly on par with Josh Bell, Jonathan Schoop, Miguel Sano, and Eric Hosmer.  To sign Rizzo to a deal well beyond our projection would require placing a large value on intangibles, or expecting him to defy the aging curve and return to his 2019 form.  Still, Rizzo is free of a qualifying offer and faces limited competition at first base unless Freddie Freeman and/or Brandon Belt make it to the market.  Many clubs could find a spot for him, especially if the NL DH adds flexibility.


24.  Avisail Garcia.  Three years, $36MM.

TD: Royals / SA: Marlins / AF: Rockies

Garcia, 30, put together a solid season in 2021.  He posted a 115 wRC+ with a career-best 29 home runs in 135 games as the Brewers’ right fielder.  Defensively, he seems to be at least average, depending on your metric of choice.  Garcia has 88th percentile sprint speed and is very strong in most Statcast batting metrics.  He’s a player who seems like he could have another level, but that was also true when he signed his two-year deal with the Brewers.  Garcia could be a fit for the Marlins, Royals, Rangers, Mets, Cubs, Reds, and Rockies if the Brewers don’t bring him back.

25.  Jorge Soler.  Three years, $36MM.

TD: Brewers / SA: Rockies / AF: Marlins

Soler defected from Cuba in 2011 and signed a nine-year, $30MM deal with the Cubs.  He was a part of the Cubs’ 2016 championship team, but was traded to the Royals for Wade Davis after that season.  In 2019, Soler shook off a long injury history to set the Royals’ franchise record with 48 home runs – perhaps in part because he played 107 games at DH and only 56 in the field.  Soler played 752 innings in right field this year, his most in the field since 2015 – in part because the Royals traded him to the Braves at the deadline.  He’s never been a good fielder, and rated as one of the game’s worst defensive right fielders this year.

Soler struggled mightily in the first half of the season, but from July 20th forward, he posted a 144 wRC+ that ranked 21st in all of baseball.  Soler capped his season by winning the World Series MVP, crushing three big home runs against the Astros.  30 in February, Soler lights up Statcast and demonstrated his ceiling back in 2019, even if he played at replacement level overall this year.  If the NL gets the DH, Soler could snag a three-year deal.

 

 

Edited by rmc523

7 minutes ago, FishFan95 said:

 

 

I get that it's just "sources" and Morosi talking, but I highly disagree that the motivation should be only to clear a spot for another young starter.  If that's their reasoning, it reeks of cost savings as the main driver, and leaves me with less hope.  The motivation should be to improve the team/offense, and you're able to move one of those starters to help there BECAUSE you have other young starters in the system.

Of all the names thrown around in this thread, Chris Taylor is one of the more likely targets probably.

As for trading pitching, they better get a hell of a return. You can never have too much good starting pitching. I know they were discussing an extension with Alcantara. I wonder how those talks are going, and if it has any impact on these rumors.

43 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Of all the names thrown around in this thread, Chris Taylor is one of the more likely targets probably.

As for trading pitching, they better get a hell of a return. You can never have too much good starting pitching. I know they were discussing an extension with Alcantara. I wonder how those talks are going, and if it has any impact on these rumors.

Yeah, the ultimate goal would be to be able to trade away some starting pitching, but we have to be absolutely loaded - I saw way too many "bullpen" games last year for my liking.

Of course, at this point it is just a Morosi tweet based on sources so I wouldn't put too much into it.

That being said, yeah. If this was to actually happen because they didn't want to pay him, that would not be a good sign.

11 hours ago, rmc523 said:

 

I get that it's just "sources" and Morosi talking, but I highly disagree that the motivation should be only to clear a spot for another young starter.  If that's their reasoning, it reeks of cost savings as the main driver, and leaves me with less hope.  The motivation should be to improve the team/offense, and you're able to move one of those starters to help there BECAUSE you have other young starters in the system.

Agreed but your point and what Morosi said can both be true. He may have just put one point in the tweet and not elaborated like you did.

They won't trade Sandy, not this offseason. That would be dumb and unnecessary. The great thing is, if they trade Pablo or Elieser they're trading a proven and MLB ready starter so the interest and the return should really be strong and strong for the MLB team in return instead of just a bunch of prospects.

2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

Yeah that is what I was referring to earlier. Hopefully that's not the case.

The thing with this stuff is, a source could say "Marlins are open to trading one of their established starters" and then Morosi could include Sandy in the mix because he is one of their established starters without any knowledge of the extension talks or whether the Marlins would ever trade him. It's the telephone game, rumors and innuendo and a lot of assumptions. I wouldn't think much of it without more concrete evidence.

I might be in the minority, but I’m not crazy about the idea of signing Chris Taylor. He’s a fine player and offers versatility, but he’s not the middle of the order bat we need. I’d much rather make a splash trade for Ketel/Bryan Reynolds. Would even prefer trading for Brandon Marsh and then using the $$$ to go after Conforto/Castellanos. 

We need a true #2 & #3 hitter. Easier said than done, but I’d prefer a Schwarber/Conforto & Marsh pairing to a Chris Taylor & lesser corner guy in FA  personally 

3 minutes ago, marlins_09 said:

I might be in the minority, but I’m not crazy about the idea of signing Chris Taylor. He’s a fine player and offers versatility, but he’s not the middle of the order bat we need. I’d much rather make a splash trade for Ketel/Bryan Reynolds. Would even prefer trading for Brandon Marsh and then using the $$$ to go after Conforto/Castellanos. 

We need a true #2 & #3 hitter. Easier said than done, but I’d prefer a Schwarber/Conforto & Marsh pairing to a Chris Taylor & lesser corner guy in FA  personally 

I would hope Chris Taylor would just be one move of several if they go for him. If they were to just sign Taylor and do nothing else, the off-season would be a failure IMO.

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