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Marlins top ten prospects


fanofthefish

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Weird that Kevin Mattison didn't make the list?

 

 

No. He's a 26 year old mediocre minor league player.

 

1. Yelich

2. Dominguez

3. James

4. Fernandez

5. Ozuna

6. Realmuto

7. Rasumussen

8, Conley

9. Ceda

10. Koehler

 

Those are just off the top of my head.

How is Koehler a prospect on anyones list? He was a great pitcher in AA in 2010, but was passed over for promotion for Hand and Villanueva this season despite a serious need for starting pitcher. I would put Mark Canha or Kyle Jensen on a prospect list before including Koehler.

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John Sickels

1) Christian Yelich, OF, Grade B+: Pure hitter with decent power, surprising speed, ex-first baseman adapted well to outfield defense. Class of the system. Grade might go higher if he resolves problems against left-handed pitching.

 

2) Marcell Ozuna, OF, Grade B: Some risk here with plate discipline issues, but power/speed upside is excellent and he made progress last year with contact. Good throwing arm and range as well.

 

3) Jose Fernandez, RHP, Grade B: Highest-upside arm in the system, could be a rotation anchor although some think he'll be a closer. 2011 first-round pick who hasn't pitched much yet.

 

4) J.T. Realmuto, C, Grade B-: Borderline B. Good athleticism and power potential, needs some work with the strike zone and defensive polish. If he adds those, could be much higher next year and one of the best catching prospects in the game.

 

5) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B-: Glove looks terrific, both on paper and in person. He has some power, but is not going to hit for average and doesn't draw walks. Still young enough to improve, but at this point has more value for a real team than a fantasy one. Comp: Pedro Feliz.

 

6) Rob Rasmussen, LHP, Grade B-: Slow start last year but pitched better as season progressed. Needs to get the walks down. Projects as number three or four starter.

 

7) Chad James, LHP, Grade B-: Velocity was down a bit last year, but he threw more strikes. Also projects as a number three or four starter. Gave up a lot of hits and will face important adaption to Double-A but is still young at 21.

 

8) Adam Conley, LHP, Grade B-: I like him, another lefty who could be number three or four starter if his breaking ball improves to match his fastball and changeup. Could return to closing if it doesn't.

 

9) Noah Perio, 2B, Grade C+: Line drive hitter with gap power, some speed, athleticism, potential to be a fine defender although he isn't yet, young at age 20. Low walk rate is a hindrance.

 

10) Mason Hope, RHP, Grade C+: Overshadowed in Oklahoma high school ranks by teammate Arizona first round pick Archie Bradley and Orioles first round pick Dylan Bundy, but this fifth rounder has a live arm and threw strikes in rookie ball. Aggressive ranking but this is a thin system.

 

11) Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Age 25 now but still counts as a rookie. Plus velocity, but command issues limit him to middle relief. Could get a shot as a closer if Heath Bell implodes.

 

12) Charlie Lowell, LHP, Grade C+: Wichita State ace lasted until the sixth round despite second-round buzz pre-draft. Throws hard, command needs some work, but could rank much next year.

 

13) Kyle Jensen, OF, Grade C+: Fits into the Jerry Sands/Casper Wells category: power bat, good numbers, big guy, scouts have doubts about his swing but has better tools than his reputation. Let's see how he hits in Double-A/Triple-A.

 

14) Mark Canha, 1B-OF, Grade C+: Advanced college bat from University of California showed power in the Sally League but we need to see him at higher levels.

 

15) Kevin Mattison, OF, Grade C+: Speedy outfielder added to 40-man roster, drew notice after strong Arizona Fall League. Good glove, hustles, plate discipline is spotty and he gets too power-conscious at times, could be good fourth outfielder if he stays within himself, but never hit before this year, which makes me cautious.

 

16) Greg Dayton, LHP, Grade C+: Fanned 99 in 72 innings in the Sally League. Auburn product throws hard, could move quickly as relief asset.

 

17) Jose Urena, RHP, Grade C: Throws hard and drew notice from scouts in the New York-Penn League. High ceiling, but secondary pitches need a lot of work and he fanned just 48 in 73 innings.

 

18) Jesus Solorzano, OF, Grade C: Toolsy type, hit .299 and stole 18 bases in Gulf Coast League. Good glove, needs better plate discipline, power potential draws mixed reviews.

 

19) Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C: Still a rookie. Average power, average speed, good throwing arm, hits left, perfect fourth/fifth outfield profile.

 

20) Chris Hatcher, RHP, Grade C: Converted catcher, adapted quickly to mound work, hits mid-90s, still refining secondary stuff but reached majors in first year of full-time pitching.

 

OTHERS: Pete Andrelczyk, RHP; Austin Barnes, C; Michael Brady, RHP; Austin Brice, C; Kevin Cravey, RHP; Ramon Del Orbe, RHP; Jacob Esch, RHP; Isaac Galloway, OF, Dan Jennings, LHP; Kyle Kaminska, RHP; Scott Lyman, RHP; Matthew Montgomery, RHP; Jobduan Morales, C-1B; Joey O'Gara, RHP; Omar Poveda, RHP; Ryan Rieger, 1B; Jose Rodriguez, RHP; Kyle Skipworth, C.

 

This system isn't empty, but it is pretty thin. Yelich and Ozuna give some hope for the future outfield, with Yelich showing a good balance of skills in his full-season debut. Ozuna's tools stand out and he made progress refining them last year, but he still carries significant risk. Realmuto will rank much higher in a year if he can polish up his defense. Everybody knows about Dominguez: great glove, but will he hit? It looks like role players beyond this group with few guys who project as regulars.

 

On the mound, Fernandez is the only one who looks like someone you build your rotation around, and we don't know how his skills will translate to pro ball yet. I like Mason Hope a lot, but again, we need to see him pitch. Rasmussen, James, Conley, and Lowell could all develop into mid-rotation starters if they max their talent out, but all four come with serious question-marks too. Will Rasmussen's K/BB improve? How will James adapt to Double-A? How will Conley and Lowell transition from college to the pro ranks?

 

There is some future material for the bullpen, with Ceda the best of the group.

 

Overall, this is not a very exciting system.

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/...pects-for-2012

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hopefully AA has a more interesting lineup than last season....

 

I'm not sure how Ceda and Cousins are still rookies, but whatever.

 

The rest is pretty expected, but it's nice to see him think Rasmussen/Conley profile better than solid relievers. At least for now.

 

 

off-topic but any thoughts on the big Marlins FA signings Lou? I know you prefer the development and price/value side of things, and these contracts for 873 zillion over 47 years don't really beg for much analysis other than "good player!" and "lots of money!", just curious if you think the additions are enough.

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hopefully AA has a more interesting lineup than last season....

 

 

I'm not sure how Ceda and Cousins are still rookies, but whatever.

 

The rest is pretty expected, but it's nice to see him think Rasmussen/Conley profile better than solid relievers. At least for now.

 

 

off-topic but any thoughts on the big Marlins FA signings Lou? I know you prefer the development and price/value side of things, and these contracts for 873 zillion over 47 years don't really beg for much analysis other than "good player!" and "lots of money!", just curious if you think the additions are enough.

Well, they aren't enough to be a surefire contender. They'd need everything to work out for that to happen. This team probably peaks at the high 80s in wins. They are 1 really above average guy (like a Gio) away from being a real contender, plus filling out the bench with dudes better than Aaron Rowand and Nick Green.

 

As for Reyes and Buerhle, I am fine with the overall years and money commitment, it was the only way to get them and they are each very good (even over 130 games for Reyes), but I am significantly worried about the insane back loading of the contracts. They are going to be paying like $55 million to Reyes, Hanley, Buerhle, and Bell in 2014, and that's a problem considering how weak the farm is at projecting them fill future spots (and Stanton/Morrison both hitting arb 1 which could easily bring it to $65-70 million for 6 players if those two work out as we all hope).

 

As for Bell, $9 million is a lot of money for 65 innings, but I am ok with it as a "luxury" expenditure considering they fixed up their two main problems with a big bat and big lefty SP. If they can drastically upgrade Volstad with someone like Gio, or trade Gaby for a SP and bring in a big LF bat, I'd feel a lot better about this team.

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hopefully AA has a more interesting lineup than last season....

 

 

I'm not sure how Ceda and Cousins are still rookies, but whatever.

 

The rest is pretty expected, but it's nice to see him think Rasmussen/Conley profile better than solid relievers. At least for now.

 

 

off-topic but any thoughts on the big Marlins FA signings Lou? I know you prefer the development and price/value side of things, and these contracts for 873 zillion over 47 years don't really beg for much analysis other than "good player!" and "lots of money!", just curious if you think the additions are enough.

Well, they aren't enough to be a surefire contender. They'd need everything to work out for that to happen. This team probably peaks at the high 80s in wins. They are 1 really above average guy (like a Gio) away from being a real contender, plus filling out the bench with dudes better than Aaron Rowand and Nick Green.

 

As for Reyes and Buerhle, I am fine with the overall years and money commitment, it was the only way to get them and they are each very good (even over 130 games for Reyes), but I am significantly worried about the insane back loading of the contracts. They are going to be paying like $55 million to Reyes, Hanley, Buerhle, and Bell in 2014, and that's a problem considering how weak the farm is at projecting them fill future spots (and Stanton/Morrison both hitting arb 1 which could easily bring it to $65-70 million for 6 players if those two work out as we all hope).

 

As for Bell, $9 million is a lot of money for 65 innings, but I am ok with it as a "luxury" expenditure considering they fixed up their two main problems with a big bat and big lefty SP. If they can drastically upgrade Volstad with someone like Gio, or trade Gaby for a SP and bring in a big LF bat, I'd feel a lot better about this team.

The backloaded deals give them a ton of flexibility, of course. If revenues are as good as they're hoping, then I would imagine they put some of the revenue into the piggy bank to help defray the costs when the salaries rise. But, if revenues don't get to where they want them, then at least they can be flexible to deal some of the players to keep payroll manageable.

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That's assuming a lot.

 

I think they expect to be a top team in the league and will be able to afford a $125 million team meaning they can blow half of it on 6 players and still have enough to field a pretty solid team (as they have been for $50 million last few years).

 

It's scary. There's no sugar coating it, but every "business" has risk.

 

But I am more concerned about right now. Getting Oswalt or Javy on a 1 year deal would be awesome.

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That's assuming a lot.

 

I think they expect to be a top team in the league and will be able to afford a $125 million team meaning they can blow half of it on 6 players and still have enough to field a pretty solid team (as they have been for $50 million last few years).

 

It's scary. There's no sugar coating it, but every "business" has risk.

 

But I am more concerned about right now. Getting Oswalt or Javy on a 1 year deal would be awesome.

 

What am I assuming? The backloaded contracts do give them flexibility. I don't know for sure whether they'll piggy bank "extra" revenue, but it seems reasonable.

 

It's definitely scary. This does seem to be a grand experiment that they have great faith in. But if it is still struggling/failing in about 5 years, I have no idea what would follow.

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That's assuming a lot.

 

I think they expect to be a top team in the league and will be able to afford a $125 million team meaning they can blow half of it on 6 players and still have enough to field a pretty solid team (as they have been for $50 million last few years).

 

It's scary. There's no sugar coating it, but every "business" has risk.

 

But I am more concerned about right now. Getting Oswalt or Javy on a 1 year deal would be awesome.

 

What am I assuming? The backloaded contracts do give them flexibility. I don't know for sure whether they'll piggy bank "extra" revenue, but it seems reasonable.

 

It's definitely scary. This does seem to be a grand experiment that they have great faith in. But if it is still struggling/failing in about 5 years, I have no idea what would follow.

flexibility till no one wants to eat that sh*t if the players aren't good. and if they are we're keeping them.

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