Post Game 9/24

[SilverBullet]

I suddenly wanna see Eovaldi vs Hand in a cage match.

 

 

[Wild Card]

Oh, good, glad we got that cleared up, at least. *phew*

 

Now, let's get one other thing cleared.

 

Eovaldi > Hand

 

Source: this thread

 

 

I won't disagree with that, either. I think Eovaldi has more potential, and I think he has more value. The statement that triggered this was that Hand has NO trade value, and that's just not correct. Considering his service time he probably has more value than most believe.

 

The problem with Eovaldi's stuff is that it appears to be superior because it's pretty. He has a pretty 98 MPH fastball, a pretty 12/6 curve, a pretty mid 80's slider, and even a change that's becoming better. But the problem is that most of those pretty pitches aren't that effective; the fastball is straight, the curve is slow and inconsistent, the slider was great until it wasn't, and the change was something new that could really help, but again, inconsistent.

 

Hand has so much movement on everything he throws, none of it looks as nice as Eovaldi, but it's all more effective. The 93 MPH fastball with sink, the slider that comes in hard on righties and tilts out of the zone on lefties, and also a change up with sink that will hopefully become the pitch that keeps him in a major league rotation. Hand's stuff is usually always present, the command is the issue.

 

Eovaldi has all the potential in the world because the stuff can be there and he can throw strikes, but he needs to be consistent. That was his problem last year, it was his problem this year, and it's going to be the same thing we continue to talk about next year. But if Hand continues to improve his command, don't be surprised to see him catch up to Nate...

 

 

[pollythewog]

Eovaldi's BB rate was 1.94 last year so if anything he's probably throwing too many strikes wild card.

 

In 199.2 IP Eovaldi was worth 3.0 WAR. In 110 IP Hand was worth .3 WAR. Can we end this discussion already?

 

 

[Michael]

Someone posted some stats (97marlin I think) that completely negates your whole post about Hand having more effective pitches.

[Wild Card]

Eovaldi's BB rate was 1.94 last year so if anything he's probably throwing too many strikes wild card.

 

In 199.2 IP Eovaldi was worth 3.0 WAR. In 110 IP Hand was worth .3 WAR. Can we end this discussion already?

 

 

 

I've probably said that like 6 times. Eovaldi throws strikes, but he has no command of the strikezone. You don't have to be wild to lack command, he can't pinpoint pitches and misses right over the plate trying to. That leads to strikes, but it also leads to getting ripped.

[pollythewog]

I've probably said that like 6 times. Eovaldi throws strikes, but he has no command of the strikezone. You don't have to be wild to lack command, he can't pinpoint pitches and misses right over the plate trying to. That leads to strikes, but it also leads to getting ripped.

 

 

Whatever the case may be he was still worth 3 WAR as a SP last year.

 

It'd be helpful to compare their heat maps: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=9111&position=P http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=9132&position=P)

 

By the looks at it, Eovaldi is much better at keeping the ball low and away than Hand is so my guess is your argument is pretty much bunk.

 

Also curious is Hand gets the away strikes called over 10% more of the time than Eovladi (Hand in the 80s versus Eovaldi in the 60s/70s). This shows our catchers suck at framing pithces (looking at you salty which is proven) and that Eo actually has more movement than hand.

 

 

[Wild Card]

How does getting less low and away strike calls equate to more movement?

 

And for the record, I am an Eovaldi supporter. Always have been, and I am not saying he's a bad pitcher nor am I saying Hand is better. I want to make that clear again. The only major reason their trade values could be comparable IMO is due to Hand's significantly less amount of service time. For two guys who have extremely similar numbers in their 2014 starts, Hand sure has a lot more time to prove himself on the cheap.

[pollythewog]

How does getting less low and away strike calls equate to more movement?

 

 

Because a straight fastball low and away in the strike zone would be called a strike. If there's movement, it's less likely to be called a strike as it would be harder to see even though it is a strike. Also, let's not forget Salty was actually really terrible at framing pitches last year and Eovaldi's pitch heat map really supports that (along with out other starters).

 

 

[pollythewog]

How does getting less low and away strike calls equate to more movement?

 

And for the record, I am an Eovaldi supporter. Always have been, and I am not saying he's a bad pitcher nor am I saying Hand is better. I want to make that clear again. The only major reason their trade values could be comparable IMO is due to Hand's significantly less amount of service time. For two guys who have extremely similar numbers in their 2014 starts, Hand sure has a lot more time to prove himself on the cheap.

 

 

Eovladi: 3 WAR in 199 IP

 

Hand: .3 WAR in 110IP

 

I'm not sure how you find those numbers comparable?

 

 

[Wild Card]

Eovladi: 3 WAR in 199 IP

Hand: .3 WAR in 110IP

 

I'm not sure how you find those numbers comparable?

 

 

 

What was Hand's WAR and IP as a SP?

 

Also, I think the low and away/movement argument is a reach. That's hardly a proven theory and the 10% difference could be pure coincidence.

[Michael]

:lol What was his WAR as a starting pitcher? Seriously? If it was 0.3 OVERALL, it's going to be a lower number as just a starter.

 

 

[pollythewog]

What was Hand's WAR and IP as a SP?

 

Also, I think the low and away/movement argument is a reach. That's hardly a proven theory and the 10% difference could be pure coincidence.

 

 

At least I'm using some basis of facts to defend my argument. Your argument is based purely on "what you see"

 

 

[Piazza31]

At least I'm using some basis of facts to defend my argument. Your argument is based purely on "what you see"

 

 

 

Nigga- the eye test is the shit. You can't trust the hype these days.

[Wild Card]

:lol What was his WAR as a starting pitcher? Seriously? If it was 0.3 OVERALL, it's going to be a lower number as just a starter.

 

 

Not if he posted a negative WAR as a reliever...

 

Did I really have to explain that to you?

 

 

[Michael]

OK, basically you're saying that Hand must have a -2.7 WAR as a reliever and a 3.0 WAR as a starter, since he's "not too far off from Eovaldi". Obviously not the case. He had better numbers as a reliever, anyhow.

 

Did I really have to explain that to you?

 

EDIT - OK, his reliever numbers weren't much better, although his K/9 was much higher. But, still.

 

89.1 IP as a starter, 49 Ks, 25 walks. Terrible.

 

His WAR as a starter was probably ... IDK ... 0.18?

 

I don't know why you even thought that would be a good argument point.

 

 

[Wild Card]

OK, basically you're saying that Hand must have a -2.7 WAR as a reliever and a 3.0 WAR as a starter, since he's "not too far off from Eovaldi". Obviously not the case. He had better numbers as a reliever, anyhow.

 

Did I really have to explain that to you?

 

EDIT - OK, his reliever numbers weren't much better, although his K/9 was much higher. But, still.

89.1 IP as a starter, 49 Ks, 25 walks. Terrible.

 

His WAR as a starter was probably ... IDK ... 0.18?

 

I don't know why you even thought that would be a good argument point.

 

 

 

Because he was terrible as a reliever and extremely comparable to Eovaldi as a starter.

 

And no, I didn't expect a -2.7 WAR as a reliever and a 3 WAR as a starter, since he started less than half the games Eovaldi did. But he could have posted a 1 WAR as a starter and a -0.7 WAR as a reliever, which in less than half the starts would have been decent enough.

[Michael]

All things considered, there's no way his WAR would be almost 2 difference between starter and reliever. ERA was similar, k/9 much better as a reliever (18 in 21.1 ip compared to 48 in over 80 innings), WHIP not too far off. Exception of K's, he was about the same in both areas.

[SilverBullet]

This is still happening? Peeps gonna think the 9/24 game had some serious postgame discussion.

[Wild Card]

This is still happening? Peeps gonna think the 9/24 game had some serious postgame discussion.

 

 

Nothing else to talk about, lol.

 

 

All things considered, there's no way his WAR would be almost 2 difference between starter and reliever. ERA was similar, k/9 much better as a reliever (18 in 21.1 ip compared to 48 in over 80 innings), WHIP not too far off. Exception of K's, he was about the same in both areas.

 

 

I guess his first half really brings him way down all together. Him and Eovaldi had totally opposite seasons...

 

Eovaldi 1st half: 106.2 IP, 3.71 ERA

 

Hand 1st Half: 24 IP, 6.38 ERA

 

Eovaldi 2nd Half: 93 IP, 5.40 ERA

 

Hand 2nd Half: 87 IP, 3.60 ERA

 

Eovaldi had the luxury of starting all season, Hand kind of had to flip flop. On the other Hand, Eovaldi threw 200 innings. Idk, I guess we'll see what happens next year. There's reason to be positive about both.

 

 

[Michael]

So is that done, then?

 

 

[97marlin]

So is that done, then?

 

 

I still think there is some over estimation of Hand's worth, but eh, I'll get over it. So yeah. I think so.

 

 

[Wild Card]

Whatever the case may be he was still worth 3 WAR as a SP last year.

 

 

According to ESPN, BTW, Hand was worth 0.5 WAR. Eovaldi was worth 0.3.

 

fWAR is not the end all, be all. So in about half the innings, Hand was worth more wins to this team.

 

 

[Erick]

When projecting the future, fWAR is better than the rest of the sites. In terms of what the results were this year, they're similar. Simply looking at results doesn't tell the whole story though and front offices have shifted their thinking this way. This is why plenty of pitchers have been getting paid based on projections rather than one-year results over the years.

 

As of right now, Eovaldi is much more valuable than Hand for this reason. If we were to trade Eovaldi, we'd get a major league caliber talent in return. If we were to trade Hand, we would get a Jacob Turneresque return.

 

 

[Wild Card]

When projecting the future, fWAR is better than the rest of the sites. In terms of what the results were this year, they're similar. Simply looking at results doesn't tell the whole story though and front offices have shifted their thinking this way. This is why plenty of pitchers have been getting paid based on projections rather than one-year results over the years.

 

As of right now, Eovaldi is much more valuable than Hand for this reason. If we were to trade Eovaldi, we'd get a major league caliber talent in return. If we were to trade Hand, we would get a Jacob Turneresque return.

 

 

This is where I disagree. AGAIN, I think Eovaldi is worth more, I agree with you, but Turner was a ticking time bomb and it was just a matter of time until the Marlins gave up on him. Hand is not a ticking time bomb, in fact he is the opposite, with a very good second half of the season where he showed great improvement and probably established some value. I also don't think service time can be overlooked here... Eovaldi is already arb eligible and Hand has two more years at the minimum.

 

 

[Piazza31]

This is where I disagree. AGAIN, I think Eovaldi is worth more, I agree with you, but Turner was a ticking time bomb and it was just a matter of time until the Marlins gave up on him. Hand is not a ticking time bomb, in fact he is the opposite, with a very good second half of the season where he showed great improvement and probably established some value. I also don't think service time can be overlooked here... Eovaldi is already arb eligible and Hand has two more years at the minimum.

 

 

 

Drop it.

 

 

Or I will find you....

 

 

And I will kill you.