8 hours ago, marlinsmaniac said:

12 million dollars for a guy with a negative war last year but they couldn’t come up with 20 for Castellanos or Schwarber? Or 18-19 for Marte? Ridiculous and does absolutely nothing to move the needle.

He's half of Schwarber, and 1/3rd of Castellanos. They all have risk - they all SUCKED in 2020. All of them. Soler is the best deal of the bunch easily and he's already in a contract year for $$$$ motivation factors with the opt out. Please see Soler's 2019 and post-2021 (including playoffs) and Soler's 2021 BABIP. Something is going to give here, and if it's bad, it's not that much money to kill them with how low their books are already. He mashes lefties at a minimum.

As for Marte, I'd rather have Luzardo, Garcia, and Soler versus 33-36 year old Marte. That is though, assuming they address CF elsewhere which they should.

They absolutely need to still address CF in a major way. Major way. That's the story here. Let's not get frustrated in evaluating other moves until they actually do this.

But if they do nothing for CF, feel free to bomb them and grab the pitchforks.

7 hours ago, UnitFox said:

Lou makes good points. Does anyone think De La Cruz can be a success in CF? A gamble after a good 35% of a season, but still very good numbers offensively and damn good defense too. 

Thanks and no. DLC had a .380 BABIP. The bottom likely drops out of the offense. 12th/13th man on the bench, ideally not on the team and they acquire TWO centerfielders - a stud/longterm option with superstar potential and a veteran backup.

I still think the best scenario (including how expensive in prospects it it to get these guys) is a Brandon Marsh and Kevin Kiermaier platoon. The highest defensive floor imaginable and superstar upside. I know Marsh also had a horrible BABIP last year, but I defer to his top 10 in baseball prospect status and getting feet wet. I'd take a swing on him and he wouldn't need to play every day with KK who is a perfect 400-450 PA guy against right handers/late game defense.

1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

For what its worth on the Sportsbooks -

O/U wins before Soler -76.5

O/U wins after Soler - 76.5

How the fuck 

2 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

How the fuck 

Vegas doesn't believe he added any wins to the team it seems

7 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Vegas doesn't believe he added any wins to the team it seems

Probably waiting till the deal is offical.

9 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

Probably waiting till the deal is offical.

Nah Vegas doesn't wait for that. Everyone knows this deal is done.

2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

For what its worth on the Sportsbooks -

O/U wins before Soler -76.5

O/U wins after Soler - 76.5

Are you sure this doesn't mean how many wins for the Oklahoma University football team?

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

He's half of Schwarber, and 1/3rd of Castellanos. They all have risk - they all SUCKED in 2020. All of them. Soler is the best deal of the bunch easily and he's already in a contract year for $$$$ motivation factors with the opt out. Please see Soler's 2019 and post-2021 (including playoffs) and Soler's 2021 BABIP. Something is going to give here, and if it's bad, it's not that much money to kill them with how low their books are already. He mashes lefties at a minimum.

As for Marte, I'd rather have Luzardo, Garcia, and Soler versus 33-36 year old Marte. That is though, assuming they address CF elsewhere which they should.

They absolutely need to still address CF in a major way. Major way. That's the story here. Let's not get frustrated in evaluating other moves until they actually do this.

But if they do nothing for CF, feel free to bomb them and grab the pitchforks.

I’m not sure what you mean by those fractions. If you’re referring to total money guaranteed I’m referring to average annual value.

Statistically, it’s safe to consider both 2019 (juiced ball) and 2020 (complete cluster fuck) to be anomalies in most players careers. Soler has always been and will always be the exact kind of bat the marlins don’t need any more of which is power with very high strikeout numbers. That just contributes more and more to the feast or famine that seems to always be their issue.

As for the fact that it’s not a lot of money to lose if they’re wrong, that isn’t the point. This was their opportunity to finally spend on something that wasn’t riddled with question marks. I haven’t seen an off-season with so much inventory in a LONG time. There were top tier players available in free agency or via trade at pretty much every position and the marlins have both payroll space and prospect depth to have KILLED this offseason and they didn’t. Whether you think Castellanos or Schwarber are great or not, The point is our division rival got BOTH of them to add to a lineup that already includes a perennial MVP candidate in Harper and hits in a matchbox. Same goes for Marte and the Mets. Their lack of action not only directly made them worse but indirectly increased the gap between them and their competition by allowing them to sign them. So forgive me if I choose to judge Soler on who he’s always been.
 

And a side note that stats won’t tell you is that Schwarber became a beast last season after working with Kevin Long to transform his swing and approach. The same guy who made Daniel Murphy a great hitter as well. And having watched him every day with the Sox the last month of the season and playoffs, make no mistake, the guy can carry a lineup on his back. 
 

P.S. Don’t read it aggressively, just friendly discourse lol

Edited March 20, 20224 yr by marlinsmaniac

This is a solid move, but I will be disappointed if this is it

Marsh looked like shit at the plate early on when he was called up - basically looked like Monte swinging at everything but by seasons end he had figured things out a lot better and was making adjustments.  I watched a fair number of Angels games last year because i really enjoy their broadcasting crew and well, Shohei was just something else last year. 

13 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

Some of the takes in here are dumb and emotional.

This is a good move. It's fine. Soler has WAY more upside than Aguilar or Cooper. He was insanely good in 2019/post-2021 with a ludicrously low 2021 BABIP.

 

You know, I don't honestly know what to make of Cooper.  It seems like he starts out stone cold every year and then turns into a bonafide +bat....and then he's injured.  I think the batting skillset is there and if he can stay healthy for a full season he might be a very good DH but he's just seemingly ALWAYS injured for long stretches of each season and it's hard to maintain your timing, etc. when you're on the IL all the time.  I'll bet you he'd absolutely rake for a team like the Rays if we traded him there.  Just a hunch.

Sometimes I think this team is just cursed too all things considered.

4 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

For what its worth on the Sportsbooks -

O/U wins before Soler -76.5

O/U wins after Soler - 76.5

Probably because he's a .220 career hitter who had one good year in which he still lead the league in strikeouts 

2 hours ago, marlinsmaniac said:

I’m not sure what you mean by those fractions. If you’re referring to total money guaranteed I’m referring to average annual value.

Statistically, it’s safe to consider both 2019 (juiced ball) and 2020 (complete cluster fuck) to be anomalies in most players careers. Soler has always been and will always be the exact kind of bat the marlins don’t need any more of which is power with very high strikeout numbers. That just contributes more and more to the feast or famine that seems to always be their issue.

As for the fact that it’s not a lot of money to lose if they’re wrong, that isn’t the point. This was their opportunity to finally spend on something that wasn’t riddled with question marks. I haven’t seen an off-season with so much inventory in a LONG time. There were top tier players available in free agency or via trade at pretty much every position and the marlins have both payroll space and prospect depth to have KILLED this offseason and they didn’t. Whether you think Castellanos or Schwarber are great or not, The point is our division rival got BOTH of them to add to a lineup that already includes a perennial MVP candidate in Harper and hits in a matchbox. Same goes for Marte and the Mets. Their lack of action not only directly made them worse but indirectly increased the gap between them and their competition by allowing them to sign them. So forgive me if I choose to judge Soler on who he’s always been.
 

And a side note that stats won’t tell you is that Schwarber became a beast last season after working with Kevin Long to transform his swing and approach. The same guy who made Daniel Murphy a great hitter as well. And having watched him every day with the Sox the last month of the season and playoffs, make no mistake, the guy can carry a lineup on his back. 
 

P.S. Don’t read it aggressively, just friendly discourse lol

You have to take into account total guaranteed money. That can't be ignored. Soler is a better deal than Schwarber or Castellanos, even if they other two are likely better. That does matter. If the larger critique is they should be spending $120-130m - YES. We are all there. They could have signed Correa and done every one of these moves, and still had payroll to jettison and trades to make to figure out CF. That's a team. It is stupid they didn't do it but hey, maybe next year. Correa is going back to free agency absent a catastrophic injury.

As for Schwarber, he had a .957 OPS post. Soler .911. Small sample size and is Schwarber better? Sure. But let's not cry about this one. Soler's 2019 is better than any season Schwarber has ever had. Soler has contract year money motivation and is 2 years younger than Schwarber.

Frankly, Soler is the best financial contract of Castellanos (3x the cost), Schwarber (2x the cost), and Rosario (limited upside with him). We can bitch about A LOT of things, but this isn't one of them. For instance, the Garcia contract is worse than this - more years and corner OF redundancy, etc. The Marlins are going to look foolish if Sanchez, Bleday, and Burdick look good... but maybe there is a trade brewing that solves that.

Big picture it's the broken record - holy crap trade pitching and get a CF. Everything else is making sense. Unless we're all the dummies and Sanchez/Garcia can actually do it, then they are already in business and we'll all have to apologize as they were right.

47 minutes ago, Iowa said:

Probably because he's a .220 career hitter who had one good year in which he still lead the league in strikeouts 

You mean a career .246 hitter who had the lowest K rate of his career last year at 23.6% (and was better than that after the allstar break when he had Atlanta lineup protection). Yes, he hit .223 overall last year...... but with a .250 BABIP (career .297... over .300 2018-2020 combined) and an 11.1% BB rate (10.4% career so not an anomaly). That BABIP is insane. I always want the Marlins to sign .250 BABIP guys in free agency. Bet on them every time, assuming they are in their prime, etc.

Regression to the mean. He's an .800 OPS hitter (career .796), with low .900 OPS upside (2019/post 2021-over 900 PA). That's it. That's the story.

Why are we mad? This decision alone (along with Garcia) is perplexing, but if they actually get the CF, all of a sudden the team looks pretty good. Nothing wrong with this move on its own. I have no words if they don't get a CF, and will gladly eat crow if Sanchez/Garcia can do it well enough. I think we'd all love to be wrong there.

2 hours ago, hovertical said:

You know, I don't honestly know what to make of Cooper.  It seems like he starts out stone cold every year and then turns into a bonafide +bat....and then he's injured.  I think the batting skillset is there and if he can stay healthy for a full season he might be a very good DH but he's just seemingly ALWAYS injured for long stretches of each season and it's hard to maintain your timing, etc. when you're on the IL all the time.  I'll bet you he'd absolutely rake for a team like the Rays if we traded him there.  Just a hunch.

Sometimes I think this team is just cursed too all things considered.

It's why he's still around. He can hit.

It'll be interesting to see what they do though as Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, Aguilar, and Cooper all can't play at the same time (unless bizarro world has one of them in CF). And it gets worse if Bleday rakes for 2 months and has to come up. And they can't really keep one on the bench as they need a backup CF more (which is effectively Berti or DLC). 

Cooper is probably going to be traded as they seem to love Aguilar. Probably for a nothing prospect also, unless lopped onto a trade. Maybe he makes sense for Oakland to let DH and trade a cheap bat at the deadline. That's my guess.

7 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

You mean a career .246 hitter who had the lowest K rate of his career last year at 23.6% (and was better than that after the allstar break when he had Atlanta lineup protection). Yes, he hit .223 overall last year...... but with a .250 BABIP (career .297... over .300 2018-2020 combined) and an 11.1% BB rate (10.4% career so not an anomaly). That BABIP is insane. I always want the Marlins to sign .250 BABIP guys in free agency. Bet on them every time, assuming they are in their prime, etc.

Regression to the mean. He's an .800 OPS hitter (career .796), with low .900 OPS upside (2019/post 2021-over 900 PA). That's it. That's the story.

Why are we mad? This decision alone (along with Garcia) is perplexing, but if they actually get the CF, all of a sudden the team looks pretty good. Nothing wrong with this move on its own. I have no words if they don't get a CF, and will gladly eat crow if Sanchez/Garcia can do it well enough. I think we'd all love to be wrong there.

My level of bitterness is at an all time high. I'll come out of it.. i always do lol

2 minutes ago, Iowa said:

My level of bitterness is at an all time high. I'll come out of it.. i always do lol

I think we are all here if the CF doesn't come and they are sitting on 5 universal top 100 prospects (Watson, Eury, Meyer, Sixto, Cabrera), with four more (Bleday, Burdick, Salas, Eder) who have all made a list or two (even if not a consensus) and are at worst are top 100-125. Doesn't include awesome flyers they can add like Fulton, Cappe, Morisette, Lewis, Nunez, McCambley, etc. Perfect 3rd/4th guys to really sweeten the deal. Marlins have depth and numbers. No reason to not go for it. Especially with Sandy, Rogers, Luzardo, Sanchez, Jazz, Lewin, Garcia, Bender, and others controlled 5 years minimum.

Like WTF if they don't get a CF here? 

36 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I think we are all here if the CF doesn't come and they are sitting on 5 universal top 100 prospects (Watson, Eury, Meyer, Sixto, Cabrera), with four more (Bleday, Burdick, Salas, Eder) who have all made a list or two (even if not a consensus) and are at worst are top 100-125. Doesn't include awesome flyers they can add like Fulton, Cappe, Morisette, Lewis, Nunez, McCambley, etc. Perfect 3rd/4th guys to really sweeten the deal. Marlins have depth and numbers. No reason to not go for it. Especially with Sandy, Rogers, Luzardo, Sanchez, Jazz, Lewin, Garcia, Bender, and others controlled 5 years minimum.

Like WTF if they don't get a CF here? 

@KmNg100

@BruCeyBoiSHerMaN

3 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

@KmNg100

@BruCeyBoiSHerMaN

The mention feature seems to be broken

36 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

The mention feature seems to be broken

We're on it!

Ketel marte still a thing or no?

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

It's why he's still around. He can hit.

It'll be interesting to see what they do though as Sanchez, Garcia, Soler, Aguilar, and Cooper all can't play at the same time (unless bizarro world has one of them in CF). And it gets worse if Bleday rakes for 2 months and has to come up. And they can't really keep one on the bench as they need a backup CF more (which is effectively Berti or DLC). 

Cooper is probably going to be traded as they seem to love Aguilar. Probably for a nothing prospect also, unless lopped onto a trade. Maybe he makes sense for Oakland to let DH and trade a cheap bat at the deadline. That's my guess.

I could see them swapping Cooper for Kiermeier to "solve" their CF issues as well and Cooper will have a helluva year as their DH. I love Aguilar and what he does for the team but if I had a gun to my head I'd take Coopers bat over his if I had to trade someone - I just feel they're infatuated with Aguilar as a "mentor" even though that role is vastly overrated.

22 minutes ago, hovertical said:

I could see them swapping Cooper for Kiermeier to "solve" their CF issues as well and Cooper will have a helluva year as their DH. I love Aguilar and what he does for the team but if I had a gun to my head I'd take Coopers bat over his if I had to trade someone - I just feel they're infatuated with Aguilar as a "mentor" even though that role is vastly overrated.

I'm not sure they would be interested in Cooper (Choi, Raley, Meadows, Choi, and J.Lowe and Brujan coming which could move Lowe around all over), but they've made it pretty clear they want to move payroll. Marlins have plenty to trade for KK if all longterm options fail. Rays will be all over Marlins 11-20 prospects, ala Misner. 

BTW - the best CF free agents next year are.... Kevin Kiermaier (club option) and Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo is interesting if he holds up, but basically... They need to trade for a CF. It's not getting better next year. 

1 hour ago, Iowa said:

Ketel marte still a thing or no?

Sure! It may be a 1 year thing and then move him back to the IF (maybe 3B?), but he rakes. He had a 2.9 WAR in 90 games last year playing defense like a jerk. Marlins need someone who rakes. Get him a superior 4th OF/CF type (ideally.... STILL Kevin Kiermaier) and mix and match the hell out of that lineup. This is true depth. And if the positions don't work out for 2023 as Jazz has to stay at 2B longterm and couldn't move to SS, and Ketel is hitting, trade KETEL then for a CF.

Only good things could happen here basically. Ketel is great. He's got over 10 WAR his last 1200+ PA over 3 years. It would work itself out. You make room for that guy and don't think twice about it.

9 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

For what its worth on the Sportsbooks -

O/U wins before Soler -76.5

O/U wins after Soler - 76.5

I mean, yeah he's put up more than 1 WAR only once in his career, so that makes sense.