I'm tired of seeing Stanton on base all the time. This selfish prick needs to spend more time in the dug out talking to his teammates.

 

 

Seriously. What an anti-social asshole. He stays on the bases so he only has to talk to a first baseman and catcher at worst.

From July 21st. This sums up Stanton's general frustrations in his own words. People will draw their own uninformed conclusions from body language and whatnot, but I find it more interesting to see what the hitter has to say.

 

 

"It hasn't been there all year," Stanton said of his performance. "It's like I'm me for two days, and then I'm back to crap for 10. Kind of how it's been all year. But we still have the second half."

 

Stanton said he can't find a rhythm. When games are close and late, he's not seeing many pitches that he can hit.

 

"It seems a little different this year in terms of getting walked a little bit more," he said. "Like, if you start to feel good and then the game's close, and you don't really get pitched to, that kind of backs you up again, if that makes any sense. You could almost be there and then -- boom boom -- maybe get thrown off again."

 

Stanton said he can't find consistency from one day to the next.

 

"It's 'Who's going to show up today?' Am I going to swing at the nonsense? Look at the stats. You'll see more than one me."

 

"Feet (in distance) doesn't matter," he said. "They haven't come at all, let alone far. I'm not getting it done."

 

 

He's been all over the place so far and I'm not surprised considering what this 23 year old has had to deal with.

 

Like Erick said in another thread, get him some protection and build around him.

If he's not getting pitched to, and I'm sure there is a way to see how pitchers have been pitching to him this season vs last, then he should stop swinging at garbage and start walking a lot more.

 

 

I've seen the same garbage ABs you have.

 

His BB rate from 250 PAs (before today) was 15.4% - 3rd in all of Baseball.

His K rate is 25.3% which is 3% lower then 2012 and the lowest of his MLB career.

 

His O-swing % (pitches a batter swings outside the strike zone) is 30.8%, down 6% from last season and lowest of his MLB career.

His Z-swing % (pitches a better swings at inside the strike zone) is 60.9%, down 5% from last season and lowest of his MLB career.

His Swing % (total percentage of pitches a batter swings at) is 41.7%, down 7% from last season and lowest of his MLB career.

His Zone % (percentages seen inside the strike zone) is 36.4%, down 5% from last season and lowest of his MLB career.

His Swinging Strike percentage is 13.2%, down 1.5% from last season and 12.8% was the lowest of his career in 2010.

His Z-contact % (percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone) is 85.3%, which is 2.3% higher then last season and the highest of his career.

His Contact % (percentage of contact made when swinging at ALL pitches) is 67.7%, which is the lowest of his career.

 

What can we take from those numbers?

From July 21st. This sums up Stanton's general frustrations in his own words. People will draw their own uninformed conclusions from body language and whatnot, but I find it more interesting to see what the hitter has to say.

 

 

 

"It hasn't been there all year," Stanton said of his performance. "It's like I'm me for two days, and then I'm back to crap for 10. Kind of how it's been all year. But we still have the second half."

 

Stanton said he can't find a rhythm. When games are close and late, he's not seeing many pitches that he can hit.

 

"It seems a little different this year in terms of getting walked a little bit more," he said. "Like, if you start to feel good and then the game's close, and you don't really get pitched to, that kind of backs you up again, if that makes any sense. You could almost be there and then -- boom boom -- maybe get thrown off again."

 

Stanton said he can't find consistency from one day to the next.

 

"It's 'Who's going to show up today?' Am I going to swing at the nonsense? Look at the stats. You'll see more than one me."

 

"Feet (in distance) doesn't matter," he said. "They haven't come at all, let alone far. I'm not getting it done."

 

 

He's been all over the place so far and I'm not surprised considering what this 23 year old has had to deal with.

 

Like Erick said in another thread, get him some protection and build around him.

 

 

 

He's young but he should realize that not getting pitches to hit and getting walks is not "backing up." You can only control what you can control. I think he put way to much pressure on himself this year. Also the injuries.

I think he put way to much pressure on himself this year.

 

 

I agree with this, I think this is the root of his frustration. Sometimes it looks like he is pressing too much and just produces some outlandish swings at garbage pitches outside the zone. My impression is that these are mostly down and away breaking balls.

 

Looking at the numbers, I can understand that maybe some people feel he should be walking more. The fact that he's swinging less at pitches inside the strike zone (lowest of his MLB career) suggest he's taking some pitches he shouldn't. Then again... maybe these are pitches painted on the outside of the strike zone. We know he's getting pitched around for the most part. Maybe he's missing some pitches though.

 

When he does swing at pitches inside of the strike zone, he's making more contact than ever before in his MLB career. So, when he identifies the pitch, he's doing what he should be. His BABIP is lower then this MLB career average so maybe he's been a bit unlucky.

 

Its a tough situation for the 23 year old, but I still believe he's part of the future and, as Erick said in another thread, we should get protection for him and build this team around him.

Hes choking at more ABs than not.....

Its just frustrating for fans (and probably him) more than anything. You know he's a lot better than what he's shown. Whether its injuries or just pressing too hard, he looks lost a lot.

 

I feel like sometimes he goes up thinking "I really need to get a hit or knock one out" rather than taking what they give him. Protection might make HIM more comfortable more than it will change how people pitch to him

I agree that Stanton would feel more comfortable with protection, but not having it has changed how teams have pitched to him. His Zone % is the percentage of pitches seen inside the strike zone. It is 36.4% this season, it was 41.6% last season.

 

To put that into more perspective, through 250 PAs this season... only Pablo Sandoval has seen less percentage of his pitches inside the strike zone at 33.3%. Stanton is #2 in all of MLB in terms of how they're pitching around him.

 

The difference between Kung Fu Panda and Stanton is that Pablo swings at 48.4% of his pitches outside of the strike zone when Stanton swings at 30.8%. Pablo also swings at more pitches inside the strike zone (78.8% compared to 60.9%) and the contact made from pitches inside the strike zone is 89.3% compared to 85.3% from Stanton. Pablo's contact at swinging outside of the strike zone is a crazy high 80% compared to 47.8% from Stanton. I assume he fouls them off like crazy? He's not hitting a high average or showing a high BABIP.

 

Pablo strikeouts at 14% and walks at 6.2%.

Stanton strikeouts at 25.3% and walks at 15.4% - 3rd highest in MLB.

 

What I will say is that Stanton would seem to not be identifying the pitches to hit when he rarely gets them. LoMo swings at even less outside of the strike zone (25.4%) but has a 92.9% of contact made when swinging at pitches inside of the strike zone. Stanton is 85.3%.

 

LoMo is also swinging at 69.4% of pitches inside the strike zone with Stanton at 60.9%.

LoMo is also seeing 40.1% of pitches inside the strike zone, Solano is at 49.8% which is the highest on the Marlins and 15th highest in all of Baseball for 180 PAs.

 

Why pitch to Stanton (36.4%) or even LoMo (40.1%) when you can pitch to Solano (49.8%)?

 

I will admit that he could still walk some more though with more discipline. LoMo has a career high/worse of 26% swinging outside the strike zone, Stanton's career low/best is 30.8% and that is this season. Take that down to 28% and he could be above Votto in BB% rate (17.1%) for this season.

 

The data speaks for itself really, Stanton is getting pitched around like crazy, his BB% has exploded because of it and it could still go up more. My post earlier on this page showed of his career lows etc. so I don't need to repeat that again. This post just puts it into perspective that in all of Baseball, only 1 person sees less pitches inside the strike zone.

 

Get the kid some protection.

Just from watching him, it seems like he does lack a plan. If he gets up 2-0, it is almost as if he says, "OK, I am swinging at the next one" and he does, regardless of where the pitch is.

Let's say Stanton finishes the season between .800-.830 OPS... How much does that effect his arbitration price for 2014?

Just from watching him, it seems like he does lack a plan. If he gets up 2-0, it is almost as if he says, "OK, I am swinging at the next one" and he does, regardless of where the pitch is.

 

 

That sounds like the definition of a plan.

 

Not a good one, but a plan nonetheless.

Just from watching him, it seems like he does lack a plan. If he gets up 2-0, it is almost as if he says, "OK, I am swinging at the next one" and he does, regardless of where the pitch is.

 

1- that is a plan, so not sure what you mean by that.

2- could it be that hes looking fastball and because this lineup sucks and he is a premiere hitter, pitchers pound him with off speed even when behind in the count? I'd say yes

OK, consensus (or at least the last two posts) is a plan is a plan, meaning unless you wipe your mind clean, anything is a plan. Sort of, " I will not have a plan or any idea what I will look for against this pitcher" is a plan. A plan is to look for a certain pitch to drive, or a location-sorry, I didn't consider just swinging at any pitch on a certain count to be a plan. Clearly over the weekend Giancarlo came up to the plate and did just what the plan must have been-no idea what to look for and just swing away. Let's not get caught up on the semantics-he is struggling and not being very smart about it. I am not hating on Giancarlo, it is just frustrating for him and all of us and it is just what it is at this point.

Stanton is definitely seeing more sliders then ever before, but that could also be the result of going up against pitchers who throw it more. Whatever the reason, it would explain why some of our impressions are that he's looking garbage against sliders, especially down and away. I recall this being a problem in previous seasons, but it seems to be even more so now.

 

He's also showing more of a negative result against those sliders, but is he coming up against better quality ones or is he just not recognizing the pitch? My "impression" would be the latter.

 

He is also seeing more 2 seamers, which is resulting in a 10% higher GB% and GB/FB ratio compared to last season. Once again, is he just seeing more of those pitchers or are they changing the pitches they throw to him? Either way, seeing more 2 seamers is going to see more of a GB/FB ratio.

 

At 2-0, you're going to naturally bet that most hitters have good results so you'll see inflated figures as a result. That's no surprise, but if you compare the results to hitters in the same situation, you're more likely to see a pattern. 2-0 was the example used here so lets throw out a few comparisons.

 

Stanton: 46.6% BB, 10.3% K, 1580 OPS, 631 wOBA, 318 wRC+

Votto: 45.5% BB, 5.5% K, 1393 OPS, 560 wOBA, 266 wRC+

Sandoval: 22.7% BB, 9.1% K, 659 OPS, 304 wOBA, 97 wRC+

LoMo: 37.9% BB, 3.4% K, 1579 OPS, 625 wOBA, 313 wRC+ NOTE: Smaller sample size.

Hech: 26.2% BB, 4.8% K, 575 OPS, 285 wOBA, 78 wRC+

 

In there, you have two players in Votto and LoMo who have good plate discipline with Votto also a supreme run producer. Sandoval is in there because he sees less pitches in the zone then Stanton does (the only one) so interesting to see what he does in a 2-0 count. Hech is in there because he's someone who doesn't walk, isn't looking to walk and is a good comparison for someone you're not expecting to see hit HRs. He's also another Marlin comparison.

 

2-0 is Stanton's best count, he out produces Votto in that count in this sample size. When you go to more even counts, Votto wins as you would think he would. Stanton tends to do better in 3-1 counts, but that's it. In 3-2 counts, Votto does better due to his plate discipline.

 

LoMo is also better in 3-2 and 2-2 counts because of the plate discipline.

 

Someone like Hech has a huge personal difference in production with 3-0 and 3-1 counts, but his results greatly suffer from more even counts. Better hitters like Stanton, Votto and LoMo are still able to produce even with a tougher count.

 

So, when he gets 2 pitches ahead, he walks like Votto and is out producing him too. Stanton clearly feels more comfortable that he's either going to get a certain pitch (relevant to the pitcher at the time) or be pitched around. When things are more even, he's not as clear about what they're doing. They might go after him, they might pitch around him and maybe he'll make the wrong choice.

There's no real statistical explanation for Stanton's underwhelming performance. His plate discipline hasn't really deteriorated. His LD% is actually up (BABIP is down despite this so there might be a little bad luck at play), but more importantly his HR/FB is down from a 21.8 to a 16.5. For whatever reason he isn't hitting as many home runs as he used to, but I don't think the problem is pitch selection.

Stanton is definitely seeing more sliders then ever before, but that could also be the result of going up against pitchers who throw it more. Whatever the reason, it would explain why some of our impressions are that he's looking garbage against sliders, especially down and away. I recall this being a problem in previous seasons, but it seems to be even more so now.

 

 

He's seeing about 6% more sliders this season as opposed to the past. It's not a ton more but not negligible.

 

He hasn't had much problem with them in previous seasons. His success against sliders has fallen off this season, but his success against most pitches has fallen off. Sliders more than most, though.

 

This is part of the problem but as you suggest, there's likely much more to it than that.

I just realized that there is a pretty sizable difference between BR's (what I was using earlier) as opposed to Fangraph's batted ball data.

 

Fangraph's shows that more ground balls are a big problem (with LD and FB rates going down noticeably). He's hitting less fly balls overall and less of those fly balls are turning into home runs.

I'm not 100% sure what anotherrealfan is seeing - at least of late, Stanton has taken MANY 2-0 pitches. He's been more patient overall (exception of when he has two strikes then he flails at fuck all), and I've seen him in many more 3-0 counts lately than previously in the year.

I'm not 100% sure what anotherrealfan is seeing - at least of late, Stanton has taken MANY 2-0 pitches. He's been more patient overall (exception of when he has two strikes then he flails at f*** all), and I've seen him in many more 3-0 counts lately than previously in the year.

 

 

Good job at the comparisons-seriously. We had two close games with the Indians and he was up with opportunity and looked bad. He was 1-11 with 5 strikeouts this weekend, so it is fresh following a 1-12 against the Mets, so as of late he has been bad. If he is getting nothing to hit, then he is helping the pitchers out. He had a good series against the Pirates and got his average up to .261, but since then it is at .245 No disputing all the stats shown here, but the past 7 games has been real bad.

But I'm contesting the "he swings at all 2-0 pitches" argument.

Let's say Stanton finishes the season between .800-.830 OPS... How much does that effect his arbitration price for 2014?

 

 

2 or 3 million.

Let's say Stanton finishes the season between .800-.830 OPS... How much does that effect his arbitration price for 2014?

 

It won't affect him at all. Some people believe Stanton is actually playing half-arsed b/c he doesn't want to play in FLA, not because he's actually struggling. Remember the tweet?

Let's say Stanton finishes the season between .800-.830 OPS... How much does that effect his arbitration price for 2014?

 

It won't affect him at all. Some people believe Stanton is actually playing half-arsed b/c he doesn't want to play in FLA, not because he's actually struggling. Remember the tweet?

 

 

Whoever says that is a dummy or rgkeller. Stanton is playing just as hard as he always has.

 

It should effect him. Isn't your arbitration $ based on performance?

this is another miscarriage of justice.

this is another miscarriage of justice.

 

 

What?