They're clearly throwing Stanton a bone there with that arb # they gave him. If it went to arb court, Stanton would have received at least $1m less.

I 100% disagree with this and think Stanton (and cishek) would have waxed the floor with the Marlins when they tried to lowball them. Hence why I see they stepped up and made settlements (maybe since they are learning how bad they are at arbitration, worst record in baseball last 10 years in that forum). We would have to discuss what the marlins/stanton numbers were to do a real comparison, but it was really clear Stanton was going to make that sum this year. Marlins didn't do him any favors. Don't kid yourself.

Soooo best case scenario the fish improve by a handful of wins this year, Stanton has a better year, and we at least attempt to offer a reasonable multi year deal? Then if he doesn't accept we explore other options?

The Marlins should just trade Stanton now.

Please just trade him now... It even sets us up for a worse record and a better draft pick the following year. I don't give a shit about a few extra wins when it won't make any difference. The prospects we'd get for him would probably far outweigh the 3 extra years we'd have him for anyway.

I agree with the two of you. I want to keep Stanton but it's pretty damn obvious they have no intention of keeping him here long term. Keeping him for the sake of keeping him is just a dumb move.

I would rather lose Stanton at the end of the 2016 season then trade him for garbage like the front office will do.

Soooo best case scenario the fish improve by a handful of wins this year, Stanton has a better year, and we at least attempt to offer a reasonable multi year deal? Then if he doesn't accept we explore other options?

There isn't going to be a reasonable multi year offer. This was the last chance to get a reasonable multiyear offer, before he made any real money. Once we get to next offseason (for contractual purposes, we are pretty much already there since 2014 salary is now guaranteed), Stanton is guaranteed another $7-10 million payday based on how arbitration works and how well he plays. That number ain't going down. At that point, he'll be "guaranteed" somewhere around $15+ million total through his career (through 2015). That's enough money to say, if I never play again that's pretty damn good so I'm not signing crap unless getting a full fledge free agent contract. They would have to offer him $250+ million, literally. Or else he will just go to free agency post 2016. It's just how the business works.

 

They are literally keeping him just to keep him right now knowing they have no intention of retaining him past 2016. There is only one reason to do something like this - contend. Like I said above, if they go out and get 3 major free agents next year, this makes sense (as those guys would probably all be the same price as Stanton long term and they could benefit from stanton playing for paychecks and free agency which is kind of exciting). However, and which is why these guys suck, they aren't going to do that because Loria is cheap and doesn't give a shit. They are just keeping him for the hell of it with no plan for the future and will take 75% of what they could get for him next year versus what they could get right now to win a few more games and "sell tickets" in 2014. No vision.

 

He's gone. It's a when not an if. Thank ownership for yet again failing at player management.

I would rather lose Stanton at the end of the 2016 season then trade him for garbage like the front office will do.

The Cabrera trade was disappointing in reality (not on paper), but just because those things happen doesn't mean you don't do whats best for the team. Despite how crappy Loria is which handcuffs them (Brantly, Valaika situation, forcing Heath Bell and John Buck signings, mandating Carlos Lee for Matt Dominguez), they do a pretty solid job of identifying young talent and last couple of years its hard to argue with their draft successes and other acquisitions (Stanton, Fernandez, Cishek, Yelich, Heaney, Marisnick, Nicolino, Ramos, and a serious group of young pitchers). You keep Stanton if you are going to build a team around him and contend in 15/16. You dish him if you aren't going to invest in the team and are trying to develop a contender. It's that easy. I see nothing screaming that this organization is going to buy guys 2015/2016 to help, so it should be a SELL scenario and right now. He is close to maximum value. Cash in when someone loses Tanaka and the front office is desperate for a splash.

 

No vision. They are going to win 75 this year at best, maybe hover .500, and waste years of Stanton when they could have gotten kids who they can control for 6+ seasons.

I feel like the Mariners would have done something incredibly stupid this offseason if we dangled Stanton in front of them.

Good lord I was trying to find positives with my best case scenario post but there really isn't much except inevitable bad decisions concerning Stanton. This sucks and it hurts. Even with our bad history (which I'm not trying to ignore) I had hopes that we'd at least try to do the right thing with Stanton and so far it looks bad.

The incessant trade talk and rumors we're going to be hearing all season long about Stanton and Cishek is going to be particularly depressing. It will be the theme of Marlins Baseball 2014 to the point where season performance will be pretty much irrelevant. No let up to the frustration of being a fan of this team.

I feel like the Mariners would have done something incredibly stupid this offseason if we dangled Stanton in front of them.

I'd take it even farther. I'd trade the house to Seattle right now - Stanton, Cishek, and Alvarez/Turner (whomever you like least). That is conveying 3 years of Stanton, 4 years of Cishek, and 4/5 years of Alvarez/Turner so its hard to ignore that would be Seattle selling out for them because that is a lot of years of talent going over.

 

You ask for something crazy - Walker, Peterson, Franklin, Smoak, Montero, Ackley, Pike, and C. Taylor.

 

I'm not sure how they could say no despite all of that young talent. Mariners clear out 1B for Morrison for years / DH Hart for now, plop Stanton behind Cano and settle RF, get a solid and legitimate #3/4 SP with Alvarez (which they could use those innings), and supercharge the back end of their bullpen beyond belief. That is probably a 5-8 win improvement for Seattle, and if they went out and got Tanaka or another LF, yikes. Nothing else comes off their 25 man roster they won't have an answer for, for seasons with all those years of control going over to Seattle so the trading of their minor league depth means little. Marlins get a future 1/2 SP Walker, the opposite corner IF starter to Moran with Peterson, their longterm 2B with Franklin, a stopgap 1B with 3 years of control with Smoak (hits righties hard), two big time projects to rehabilitate with Montero (who crushes LHP, could be perfect with Salty/Smoak) and Ackley, a good Nicolinoish SP in Pike, and a developmental SS who would push Hech in a year or two. Across the board fills all the needs and saves $7 million on 2014 payroll (would be thrilling for Loria to save money). The Marlins could then make Dunn closer, get some saves, and trade him at the deadline too for whatever. Nothing short term is really impacted as Jones/Ackley could play RF, Smoak 1B, and they'd just fill the rotation with two of Hand/Flynn/Koehler/Slowey until Walker and Heaney come up mid-June.

 

Seattle would do it in some permutation to get Stanton. Maybe they'd want to keep Ackley for LF and exchange for something else, but whatever. That doesn't really matter. I know its a video game hypothetical, but the real point is, they should move him unless they plan on going a free agent binge in 15/16 to build a year team around him. Cash in, build the the team around Fernandez/Yelich/Heaney/Marisnick/Moran/etc if you're not going to build it around Stanton.

I'd take it even farther. I'd trade the house to Seattle right now - Stanton, Cishek, and Alvarez/Turner (whomever you like least). That is conveying 3 years of Stanton, 4 years of Cishek, and 4/5 years of Alvarez/Turner so its hard to ignore that would be Seattle selling out for them because that is a lot of years of talent going over.

 

You ask for something crazy - Walker, Peterson, Franklin, Smoak, Montero, Ackley, Pike, and C. Taylor.

 

I'm not sure how they could say no despite all of that young talent. Mariners clear out 1B for Morrison for years / DH Hart for now, plop Stanton behind Cano and settle RF, get a solid and legitimate #3/4 SP with Alvarez (which they could use those innings), and supercharge the back end of their bullpen beyond belief. That is probably a 5-8 win improvement for Seattle, and if they went out and got Tanaka or another LF, yikes. Nothing else comes off their 25 man roster they won't have an answer for, for seasons with all those years of control going over to Seattle so the trading of their minor league depth means little. Marlins get a future 1/2 SP Walker, the opposite corner IF starter to Moran with Peterson, their longterm 2B with Franklin, a stopgap 1B with 3 years of control with Smoak (hits righties hard), two big time projects to rehabilitate with Montero (who crushes LHP, could be perfect with Salty/Smoak) and Ackley, a good Nicolinoish SP in Pike, and a developmental SS who would push Hech in a year or two. Across the board fills all the needs and saves $7 million on 2014 payroll (would be thrilling for Loria to save money). The Marlins could then make Dunn closer, get some saves, and trade him at the deadline too for whatever. Nothing short term is really impacted as Jones/Ackley could play RF, Smoak 1B, and they'd just fill the rotation with two of Hand/Flynn/Koehler/Slowey until Walker and Heaney come up mid-June.

 

Seattle would do it in some permutation to get Stanton. Maybe they'd want to keep Ackley for LF and exchange for something else, but whatever. That doesn't really matter. I know its a video game hypothetical, but the real point is, they should move him unless they plan on going a free agent binge in 15/16 to build a year team around him. Cash in, build the the team around Fernandez/Yelich/Heaney/Marisnick/Moran/etc if you're not going to build it around Stanton.

 

This inspired me to do a 25-man roster projection with that hypothetical trade. Here's what the team would look like for 2015 (an extra year to give time for top-flight talent in the farm system to graduate)

 

Lineup

1. Christian Yelich, CF

2. Dustin Ackley, 2B

3. Colin Moran, 3B

4. Marcell Ozuna, LF

5. Jones/Smoak, 1B

6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C

7. Jake Marisnick, RF

8. Hechavarria/Replacement, SS

 

Bench

1. Jesus Montero, C/1B

2. Ed Lucas, 3B

3. Nick Franklin, UTL

4. Brent Keys, OF

5. Jones/Smoak, 1B

 

Starting Pitchers

1. Jose Fernandez

2. Andrew Heaney

3. Taijuan Walker

4. Henderson Alvarez (trade Turner)

5. Koehler/Eavoldi/Flynn/FA Signing

 

Bullpen

1. Long Relief (Whoever doesn't make that 5 spot)

2. Dan Jennings

3. Grant Dayton

4. Nick Wittgren

5. Mike Dunn - SU

6. Carter Capps SU

7. AJ Ramos - CL

 

That looks like a competitive team in my eyes. Maybe a 2010 San Francisco Giants like team with a slightly better offense. It solves so many question marks like middle infield and makes the pitching staff (both SPs and RPs) one of the best in the game. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat.

I was going to say there's no chance Loria makes big FA pickups in 2016 to make a run before Stanton walks, but it actually kinda does sound like something he would do. He's not a long-term vision guy but I could see him making a short-term splash if they're a contender.

I was going to say there's no chance Loria makes big FA pickups in 2016 to make a run before Stanton walks, but it actually kinda does sound like something he would do. He's not a long-term vision guy but I could see him making a short-term splash if they're a contender.

 

I'm afraid that will never happen as long as this ownership is in place.

I'm afraid that will never happen as long as this ownership is in place.

 

Fortunately the owner doesn't throw a ball, wear a glove, swing a bat, or sign the line up card. So this is preposterous.

Pay Stanton. Please, just pay the guy. He's the best player on this franchise and he has perennial MVP potential. Please Loria, open that wallet

MLB network said they haven't discussed it and both sides "feel it's not the right time." :|

MLB network said they haven't discussed it and both sides "feel it's not the right time." :|

 

So when do they feel the right time is? Im dying to know.

About 2 years ago.

 

Yeah we here all know that. I honestly wanna know when Loria thinks is the right time.

Well I would like to see Stanton go through a full season healthy first. Injuries have been a concern for Stanton

Yeah we here all know that. I honestly wanna know when Loria thinks is the right time.

 

When it's already too late.

Yeah we here all know that. I honestly wanna know when Loria thinks is the right time.

 

 

Read it again. It says BOTH sides don't feel it is the right time. Apparently, Loria only gets half the "blame" here.

As I said maybe a year or so ago, Loria gains maximum value from Stanton by keeping him through the trade deadline in 2015.

 

For 3 years he got a 15+ mill/year guy for 400-500K/yr, never mind the injury history. This year he gets him for 6.5 mill. Still a very, very good deal.

 

Next year maybe he gets him for 10-12 mill. Still a bargain, but a minor one, having nearly reached the end of bargain-city. In 2016, he'd have to pay full-price, so forget that.

 

Which is why he'll be traded at the deadline for a bunch of talent either this year or next year to some contender desperate for a big bat.

 

I'll guess it happens this year, especially if Stanton has a decent year and they're not contending. Even if they win the WS this year, he'll still be gone next year, as he's no longer a bargain and Loria can't compete with LA or NY for 200 mill+ to a FA.

The trade value diminishes when the arbitration figures go up and the club controlled years go down. A team would give more in return in a trade if they have a greater chance of extending Stanton. That value will drop if the Marlins wait until the trade deadline of 2015 to deal.

 

Also keep in mind that Stanton's "value" will do little good in 2014 if the team will suck (which it will).

 

Loria will probably wait until Stanton's arbitration numbers increase, but that doesn't mean that it's the right move. If they can't sign him, they should deal now.