And the closer Miami gets to a playoff spot, the more possible it is for Loria to reach the numbers Stanton would accept. That is all.

 

 

Btw, I tweeted the Marlins it's time for the Giancarlo MVP campaign on social media.

 

#G4MVP

Btw, I tweeted the Marlins it's time for the Giancarlo MVP campaign on social media.

 

#G4MVP

 

 

There's a Gatorade campaign waiting to happen there. Probably a sweet looking commercial to go along with it too.

 

 

There's a Gatorade campaign waiting to happen there. Probably a sweet looking commercial to go along with it too.

 

 

 

You're on to something, Don Draper.

 

That campaign is good for AFTER he wins, though.

He's starting to get more momentum behind him, as well.

 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/93999952/mike-bauman-stanton-deserves-nl-mvp-regardless-of-marlins-finish

 

The longer we stay in the race, the more we are going to keep seeing these articles.

they're going to offer him 6/110 or something dumb

 

 

 

Don't forget without a no-trade clause.

 

This is simply to tell the fans well, we tried...

I will be bold to say as much as I Love Giancarlo but if he rejects a long term contract this off-season the Marlins should trade him before the 2015 season begins. His value will never ever be higher, I know Stanton says he will like to win in Miami and there is a good chance they may have a winning season next year but unless they get a WS ring Stanton may be headed to the Angels, Dodgers or even the Giants as a F/A. He alone can give us 3 prime prospects (Our 1st baseman, middle infielder another power-hitting outfielder) Starting next season with Stanton in the lineup without a long term contract, which is very likely, would be a huge mistake.

 

 

I was thinking about this dilema yesterday, and I've concluded that they're going to sign him to a 5-6 year deal no matter what. Whether it's a reasonable deal or a ridiculous one, they're not going to let him go because there is zero downside to making the commitment and next to nothing positive about letting him go.

 

Think of it this way; if the Marlins sign Giancarlo longterm:

 

1. The team will earn back respect from the fan base, league, media, etc. Extremely important to the Marlins brand.

 

2. The team will remain as competitive as possible. Important for obvious reasons.

 

3. He will still be earning less than FA market value for the first two years of the deal. If the team is not competitive after the first 2-3 years of the deal (when he is most affordable, FYI) they will be able to trade him and still get the same type of compensation as they would have this winter. I'm sure Giancarlo will get a no-trade clause; I'm also certain he would be willing to waive it immediately if they aren't able to win.

 

For all those reasons, they will make a deal, no matter how fair or ridiculous. Personally, I think it will end up being between 5-years, $120-135 Million or 6-years, $145-160 Million. But after thinking about it the last day or so, there's no way they don't get a deal done.

 

Also, FWIW, I think we will see extensions for Yelich, Alvarez, and maybe Ozuna all before Stanton signs. Ozuna is the only wild card IMO, not only because he's the biggest risk but also because he is a Scott Boras client.

 

 

I was thinking about this dilema yesterday, and I've concluded that they're going to sign him to a 5-6 year deal no matter what. Whether it's a reasonable deal or a ridiculous one, they're not going to let him go because there is zero downside to making the commitment and next to nothing positive about letting him go.

 

Think of it this way; if the Marlins sign Giancarlo longterm:

 

1. The team will earn back respect from the fan base, league, media, etc. Extremely important to the Marlins brand.

 

2. The team will remain as competitive as possible. Important for obvious reasons.

 

3. He will still be earning less than FA market value for the first two years of the deal. If the team is not competitive after the first 2-3 years of the deal (when he is most affordable, FYI) they will be able to trade him and still get the same type of compensation as they would have this winter. I'm sure Giancarlo will get a no-trade clause; I'm also certain he would be willing to waive it immediately if they aren't able to win.

 

For all those reasons, they will make a deal, no matter how fair or ridiculous. Personally, I think it will end up being between 5-years, $120-135 Million or 6-years, $145-160 Million. But after thinking about it the last day or so, there's no way they don't get a deal done.

 

Also, FWIW, I think we will see extensions for Yelich, Alvarez, and maybe Ozuna all before Stanton signs. Ozuna is the only wild card IMO, not only because he's the biggest risk but also because he is a Scott Boras client.

 

Agree with all of this, especially your third point. Nicely written.

 

 

Hope you're right WC, but it's gonna take 5/140-150 or 6 175/185 to get him to stay with us.

 

 

Hope you're right WC, but it's gonna take 5/140-150 or 6 175/185 to get him to stay with us.

 

 

I think that's a bit much, personally. That's $29-31M AAV including arbitration years, which won't happen.

 

Remember, the first two years are buying out arbitration. Next year he will probably command $15 Million or so, and the final year $20-25 Million depending on his '15 season. Then the next 3-4 years are market value, which can be anywhere from $25-30 Million, so my guess would probably be in the middle at $27.5M per year.

 

So, say he earns $15M for '15, $25M for '16, and $27.5 for '17-20... you get 6-years, $150 Million which is right in the middle of my prediction. The HIGHEST I see it going is $160M, which would be $15M for '15, $25M for '16, $30M for '17-20.

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-a-giancarlo-stanton-extension-might-look-like/#comment-4718701

 

FanGraphs piggy backing off my post, lol.

 

I don't agree with quite a bit of this. I don't think he would agree to an 8-10 year deal in Miami. I also think the Marlins will compensate him better than they believe during his two arb years, but I can't see him getting more than $30 AAV in the final 3-4 years of an extension... While he has had an MVP season, the Marlins can (and will) use the injury risk against him to obtain a small discount, IMO.

 

 

the marlins have to overpay a l lot to get him as he can just wait out his arb years at this point. That's what you're missing imo. But I agree with your fundamental argument, I just don't think Stanton really wants to be here.

 

 

the marlins have to overpay a l lot to get him as he can just wait out his arb years at this point. That's what you're missing imo. But I agree with your fundamental argument, I just don't think Stanton really wants to be here.

 

 

I'm also over-compensating him for the two arb years, though. I think he and his agent would see value in taking a little more right away and settling on a fair AAV of $27-30M for the final 4 years.

 

 

I also think it'll help if we not only lock up our young talent around him but sign a free agent such as Sandoval to bat around him.

Or he can wait 2 years with set for life money already coming to him and make 300 million dollars over 10 years. He would also have his choice of teams.

 

Exactly, our big problem is we waited too long probably leverage wise. I hope he signs but he is more likely to reject whatever we do offer

 

 

Yes, it really comes down to the fact that the front office royally fucked this up. This shouldn't even be a topic of discussion right now.

 

 

Or he can wait 2 years with set for life money already coming to him and make 300 million dollars over 10 years. He would also have his choice of teams.

 

 

Or he can wait two years, suffer multiple injuries, and never sign any long term deal of significance at all.

 

 

Exactly, our big problem is we waited too long probably leverage wise. I hope he signs but he is more likely to reject whatever we do offer

 

 

Yes, it really comes down to the fact that the front office royally fucked this up. This shouldn't even be a topic of discussion right now.

 

 

Two years is still a long time. That's a Grady Sizemore-sized gamble with your career...

 

 

If by some weird miracle he signs a 5 year or shorter deal (he wont sign a 6 because his agent isn't a moron) it will be for ludicrous money and honestly I wouldn't want that. A team with a baby dick sized payroll shouldn't be spending this kind of money on a single player. It simply cannot afford it. Unless of course we all truly enjoy watching the marlins parade of washups and has beens to fill out the roster.

 

Plus I think Loria is going to sell the team fairly soon. As in within 5 years. He's old. The fewer long term liabilities the marlins have the more money he stands to make from the sale.

 

I think he makes an offer, but it will be less than what stanton is worth, and they will do this so they can say they tried. Then we will make the postseason in 2016, probably lose, and stanton will walk to fa with loria to sell shortly after. The end.

 

 

I estimated a 5-year deal at $120-135 Million, which is monsterdong. It sounds small, but double that... and it's Pujols/Cabrera/A-Rod money. It's long enough that it satisfies both parties and short enough to make him a FA at 29-years-old. It eliminates the injury risk, and gives him the flexibility to cash in big a second time.

 

Also, you think not having Stanton under contract is a positive for re-sale? I would have to say I disagree, I think it makes the franchise more valuable having an established MVP player that generates interest and sales.

 

 

Two years is still a long time. That's a Grady Sizemore-sized gamble with your career...

 

Problem is Stanton has nearly 8 million banked already and is going to come close to (or top) 20 mil in career earnings after arby next year. That's enough for him to "risk it" probably.

 

 

Problem is Stanton has nearly 8 million banked already and is going to come close to (or top) 20 mil in career earnings after arby next year. That's enough for him to "risk it" probably.

 

 

Well, $8 Million gross salary... so he has $4 Million net earnings, and probably less than $2-3M of it actually saved. Yes, his earnings next year are guaranteed and that's another $6-8M net, but beyond that he isn't guaranteed anything and IDK about you, but me..? $65-80M CASH > $10-12M CASH

 

The question is would he rather risk $160M for $15M... or risk $300M for $160M? I'm going with option B.

 

 

Stanton Will get 10-15 mill this season either way, there is no risk on his behalf, the question is he willing to commit to the Marlins... We will know soon enough but the Marlins FO has not made it easy on themselves. Stanton was an easy sign in 2012 and is a very hard sign 2014...He will be an impossible sign in 2015. Talk about a Fuckup on the FO behalf! What was the FO thinking? Were they worried about injuries or a subpar season? They is no justifiable reason to have put this off until now. At the moment when he has an MVP type season under his belt is when they decide to finally say to Stanton: "Ok lets talk contract.." How stupid is that?...There is no reason for Giancarlo to believe or trust in this FO, they can sign whoever it would not mean anything to him. They have signed players in the past, brought in top level F/As and they all ended up being traded sooner rather than later. IMO for Stanton to sign they have to offer him everything including the kitchen sink or Loria needs to sell the franchise

 

 

IMO for Stanton to sign they have to offer him everything including the kitchen sink or Loria needs to sell the franchise

 

Why not both?

 

 

http://blog.masslive.com/redsoxmonster/2014/09/major_league_baseball_2014_don.html

 

Someone of reason in New England...

 

 

I hate to bring this up right now, but tonight is the perfect example why he does not reject a mega offer two years away from free agency.

 

I hope he's OK.

I hate to bring this up right now, but tonight is the perfect example why he does not reject a mega offer two years away from free agency.

 

I hope he's OK.

 

Yeah, it's not the best time to say that.

 

However ... you are correct.