Link?

 

 

Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan reports that Giancarlo Stanton (face) wants to return this season.

Stanton was diagnosed with multiple facial fractures, as well as dental damage, when he was hit by a Mike Fiers pitch Thursday. Passan also adds that Stanton had a tooth lodged in his cheek and a hole in his lip so big "the doctor's index finger could fit in it." There's a big difference between wanting to return and being cleared to return, but Passan notes that "Stanton's spirits are high." The odds of him making it back still seem long, but we should known more in the coming days whether it's a possibility.

 

Giancarlo Stanton‏@Giancarlo81829s

 

The amount of support I have received from you guys has been tremendous & Heartfelt. I'm much better today & deeply appreciate your prayers!

 

 

HE TWEETS!

 

Giancarlo Stanton ✔ @Giancarlo818

 

The amount of support I have received from you guys has been tremendous & Heartfelt. I'm much better today & deeply appreciate your prayers!

 

Okay since Stanton is feeling better and stuff, you'd have to imagine this significantly increases the odds of him taking a contract from the fish FO this off season, eh?

 

 

Okay since Stanton is feeling better and stuff, you'd have to imagine this significantly increases the odds of him taking a contract from the fish FO this off season, eh?

 

 

I would say, yes, it absolutely does.

 

If you didn't think my argument for this exact reason wasn't persuasive enough just a few hours before it happened, you probably do now. One pitch can change his life, and that should be clear enough now that he will sign.

 

 

I would say, yes, it absolutely does.

 

If you didn't think my argument for this exact reason wasn't persuasive enough just a few hours before it happened, you probably do now. One pitch can change his life, and that should be clear enough now that he will sign.

 

 

Not gonna lie dude, as Stanton was laying on the ground and my mind was racing, I thought about you and this very argument. Very realistic now.

 

 

I would say, yes, it absolutely does.

 

If you didn't think my argument for this exact reason wasn't persuasive enough just a few hours before it happened, you probably do now. One pitch can change his life, and that should be clear enough now that he will sign.

 

 

I did not think it was persuasive enough then. I do think this probably has changed to some significant degree. My only worry is that the fish FO will try to low ball him now. They really need to go full throttle $ wise on signing. Would be so great for the team especially now.

 

 

Not gonna lie dude, as Stanton was laying on the ground and my mind was racing, I thought about you and this very argument. Very realistic now.

 

 

Well, it's true. Two years is a long time to wait. Is he guaranteed $12-15M next year? Yea, he is. Is he guaranteed a dollar after that? No, not unless he takes the $130-160M the Marlins throw him for the next 5-6 years.

 

What I am REALLY hoping this incident does is get him and his agency thinking long and hard... and instead of the shorter term extension, he takes the 10-year, $260M offer with a year 6 or 7 opt-out clause. That would make this a blessing in disguise for the Marlins.

 

 

Should be, he didn't mean it. His reaction to the dugout was wrong but likely stemmed from the emotional situation. He seems like a classy good guy.

 

 

 

The accidental beanings mean nothing to me- but to show up an already upset and distraught bench is what upsets me.

The accidental beanings mean nothing to me- but to show up an already upset and distraught bench is what upsets me.

 

 

Totally agree.

 

 

Well, it's true. Two years is a long time to wait. Is he guaranteed $12-15M next year? Yea, he is. Is he guaranteed a dollar after that? No, not unless he takes the $130-160M the Marlins throw him for the next 5-6 years.

 

What I am REALLY hoping this incident does is get him and his agency thinking long and hard... and instead of the shorter term extension, he takes the 10-year, $260M offer with a year 6 or 7 opt-out clause. That would make this a blessing in disguise for the Marlins.

 

 

Not to split hairs, but if he broke his leg in spring training and didn't play in 2015, he would replicate his arbitration number again in 2016 (as the Marlins would surely pay that), so he's kind of de facto guaranteed around $25 million the next two seasons, and a lot more based on any production in 2015. He'd have to be released and unable to play to not get it. Career ending injury level event. Despite last night, that is going to be very rare thing to happen.

 

I think the correct approach is 4/$100-110 or 5/$120-130. That comps just below Trout on an annual basis for the same years of service time and lets him be a free agent in his prime.

 

If this horrific event has done anything, it moves the possibility of that happening to above 0%, which is where it was yesterday. It's sad an injury does that, but such is the game. I'd be really happy with a 5/$125.

 

That would also mean the Marlins will have paid him 7/$132 for those years.

 

Meaning they left $40+ million on the table if they had signed him 2 years ago based on all reasonable comps.

 

Totally great Loria.

 

 

HEY LOOK AN ARTICLE FILLED WITH THINGS YOU GUYS ALREADY KNOW!

 

http://www.therunnersports.com/2014/09/12/giancarlo-stanton-suffers-severe-injury-hit-pitch/

 

 

Not to split hairs, but if he broke his leg in spring training and didn't play in 2015, he would replicate his arbitration number again in 2016 (as the Marlins would surely pay that), so he's kind of de facto guaranteed around $25 million the next two seasons, and a lot more based on any production in 2015. He'd have to be released and unable to play to not get it. Career ending injury level event. Despite last night, that is going to be very rare thing to happen.

 

I think the correct approach is 4/$100-110 or 5/$120-130. That comps just below Trout on an annual basis for the same years of service time and lets him be a free agent in his prime.

 

If this horrific event has done anything, it moves the possibility of that happening to above 0%, which is where it was yesterday. It's sad an injury does that, but such is the game. I'd be really happy with a 5/$125.

 

That would also mean the Marlins will have paid him 7/$132 for those years.

 

Meaning they left $40+ million on the table if they had signed him 2 years ago based on all reasonable comps.

 

Totally great Loria.

 

Assuming he would have accepted a 7/92 contract 2 years ago or some other variation on your comparable fair for the franchise only "dream contract". He wouldn't, and he won't sign for 5/125 now. 5-6/150-160 would be fair for the franchise AND Stanton.

 

 

Assuming he would have accepted a 7/92 contract 2 years ago or some other variation on your comparable fair for the franchise only "dream contract". He wouldn't, and he won't sign for 5/125 now. 5-6/150-160 would be fair for the franchise AND Stanton.

 

10/200 and pray he accepts?

 

 

Assuming he would have accepted a 7/92 contract 2 years ago or some other variation on your comparable fair for the franchise only "dream contract". He wouldn't, and he won't sign for 5/125 now. 5-6/150-160 would be fair for the franchise AND Stanton.

 

 

100% chance Stanton takes 7/$92 before the 2013 season. 100%. Above Cargo and would have been the highest contract in the history of baseball for a player with that amount of service time (since trumped by Trout, Ryan Howard also made $94 those service time years so yea he made negligibly more, but over multiple deals and not in 1 single buyout. More than Pujols by a few million). If you think that is only fair for the franchise, I will post a picture of face palming.

 

Anyways, 6 years is going to be pushing it if he can cash in again on another mega deal. He is over 30 a year by then. This cannot be overstated and I still don't know why anyone thinks he would sign a 6-8 year deal here at this point, 2 years from freedom and after having plenty of money in the bank come arbitration next year.

 

4-5 is the answer. Marlins get some, Stanton get $100+ million, and Stanton can get the mega contract at 29 years old.

 

Trout is making 5/$134.25 the same service years as Stanton's next 5. You can't really put him very far above that, but 5/$120-140 is the range easily. 5/$150 is really pushing it when 2 arbitration years are involved. That is valuing Stanton's free agent years at around $38.33 million a season (I am valuing his next two arbitration years at $35 million). That's ludicrous. Of course he'll sign that.

 

I still think it's a tough sign, but if they could do 4/$100+ or 5/$125+ sort of thing, give or take a few million, that could work if his paranoia of getting a career threatening injury is that severe. It gives Stanton a good annual, on a contender (the team is pretty good assuming Fernandez is back and they spend on a veteran or two), and free agent in prime. That's the scenario.

 

 

100% chance Stanton takes 7/$92 before the 2013 season. 100%. Above Cargo and would have been the highest contract in the history of baseball for a player with that amount of service time (since trumped by Trout, Ryan Howard also made $94 those service time years so yea he made negligibly more, but over multiple deals and not in 1 single buyout. More than Pujols by a few million). If you think that is only fair for the franchise, I will post a picture of face palming.

 

Anyways, 6 years is going to be pushing it if he can cash in again on another mega deal. He is over 30 a year by then. This cannot be overstated and I still don't know why anyone thinks he would sign a 6-8 year deal here at this point, 2 years from freedom and after having plenty of money in the bank come arbitration next year.

 

4-5 is the answer. Marlins get some, Stanton get $100+ million, and Stanton can get the mega contract at 29 years old.

 

Trout is making 5/$134.25 the same service years as Stanton's next 5. You can't really put him very far above that, but 5/$120-140 is the range easily. 5/$150 is really pushing it when 2 arbitration years are involved. That is valuing Stanton's free agent years at around $38.33 million a season (I am valuing his next two arbitration years at $35 million). That's ludicrous. Of course he'll sign that.

 

I still think it's a tough sign, but if they could do 4/$100+ or 5/$125+ sort of thing, give or take a few million, that could work if his paranoia of getting a career threatening injury is that severe. It gives Stanton a good annual, on a contender (the team is pretty good assuming Fernandez is back and they spend on a veteran or two), and free agent in prime. That's the scenario.

 

I got the 92 from your post above that talked about 7/132 and "leaving 40M" on the table. I don't recall what 7 year contract number you proposed 2 years ago. Maybe your idea of a fair contract was 7/70. Whatever, what's past is past. Going forward as I said a month or so ago you and I get closer to the "fair deal" in our minds. Now, you're at 5/140 "pushing it". Push 2M more a year and we're there.

 

 

It was always around $80 (the Cargo number). Give or take $5 million. $92 would have been epic for Stanton.

 

5/$150 is valuing free agency years at $38.33 million. That's nuts.

 

He takes that. I don't think they need to go that far though.

 

And this is all contingent he just doesn't want to go to free agency in 2 years and go to the Dodgers

 

 

You're right lou in that this increases the chances of Stanton signing if offered a reasonable contract. Stanton may look at that beaning as a freak occurrence that probably won't happen in the next 2 years.

 

Does adding a no trade clause for a 5 year deal help any? Marlins need any form of leverage they can get.

 

 

Does adding a no trade clause for a 5 year deal help any? Marlins need any form of leverage they can get.

 

Absolutely, better chance he signs but dollar wise it'll be the same regardless.

 

 

You're right lou in that this increases the chances of Stanton signing if offered a reasonable contract. Stanton may look at that beaning as a freak occurrence that probably won't happen in the next 2 years.

 

Does adding a no trade clause for a 5 year deal help any? Marlins need any form of leverage they can get.

 

 

The Marlins leverage is simple:

 

Sign James Shields (or other good veteran SP)

 

Buyout yelich for 7 years

 

Buyout Alvarez for 5 years

 

Sign a veteran infielder for $2-5 million

 

Trade Cishek and Eovaldi for more young infielders

 

Get a good medical report on Fernandez in the winter

 

That's the leverage to make Stanton happy. Show him the organization is building a winner, and we want you to be our alpha dog for 4-5 years before inevitably going to California. We're a winner, stay here, we'll give you real money, and we'll let you be a free agent in your prime. Works for everyone.

 

A no trade couldn't hurt, but end of the day I think it's changing the environment and culture which is 99% of the issue. The money is easy. There are comps and he is worth what he is worth. Showing him the organization isn't full of schmucks is the real challenge.

 

And that starts from the top. Build a team, invest in the future. Stop firing a manager every 18 months. Stop trading guys you signed after 1 year for minor leaguers no one has heard of and NOT use the money you cleared to get anyone new. Stop keeping Dietrich in the minors when its clear he is one of the best 13 position players in the organization.

 

Make him believe in the system and he'll stay for a few years, provided that the money isn't an insult.

 

 

Trout is making 5/$134.25 the same service years as Stanton's next 5. You can't really put him very far above that, but 5/$120-140 is the range easily. 5/$150 is really pushing it when 2 arbitration years are involved.

 

 

Well, you and I are in agreement on dollars for 5-years, my estimate is $120-135 Million.

 

My question to you is why wouldn't Stanton sign a mega 10-year, $260M deal with a year 6 opt-out clause? There's literally no risk for him, he gets paid through 5-years and either stays if he's declining or leaves if he's not...

 

 

The Marlins leverage is simple:

 

Sign James Shields (or other good veteran SP)

 

Buyout yelich for 7 years

 

Buyout Alvarez for 5 years

 

Sign a veteran infielder for $2-5 million

 

Trade Cishek and Eovaldi for more young infielders

 

Get a good medical report on Fernandez in the winter

 

That's the leverage to make Stanton happy. Show him the organization is building a winner, and we want you to be our alpha dog for 4-5 years before inevitably going to California. We're a winner, stay here, we'll give you real money, and we'll let you be a free agent in your prime. Works for everyone.

 

A no trade couldn't hurt, but end of the day I think it's changing the environment and culture which is 99% of the issue. The money is easy. There are comps and he is worth what he is worth. Showing him the organization isn't full of schmucks is the real challenge.

 

And that starts from the top. Build a team, invest in the future. Stop firing a manager every 18 months. Stop trading guys you signed after 1 year for minor leaguers no one has heard of and NOT use the money you cleared to get anyone new. Stop keeping Dietrich in the minors when its clear he is one of the best 13 position players in the organization.

 

Make him believe in the system and he'll stay for a few years, provided that the money isn't an insult.

 

 

Take this with a grain of salt.

 

One of the reasons I had written my "epiphany" post yesterday regarding the Stanton situation is because my colleagues' wife works in the FO directly with the executives. They went on the annual family/work road trip with the team and FO in Colorado a few weeks back, and sitting very closely to the Hill/Jennings/etc table during a dinner he was able to evesdrop on the conversation, but it didn't come up until a few days ago when we were discussing Stanton for MVP.

 

Not that anything is in written in stone, but he heard some of the ideas that would be put into motion this off-season. Starting with "locking up our guys around Stanton", which wasn't too surprising, but encouraging. The surprising mention by name was Jon Lester, who is supposedly BEST FRIENDS with Salty. Not like they're good buddies, more like they're obsessed with each other type BFF's that could actually have an influence.

 

The point of me writing this was to confirm that just about everything you wrote sounds pretty accurate in comparison to what I was able to gather from my game of telephone. It should be an exciting off-season...

 

 

HELL TO THE MOTHERFUCKIN' YEA

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11543275/miami-marlins-preparing-possible-giancarlo-stanton-return

 

 

HELL TO THE MOTHERFUCKIN' YEA

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11543275/miami-marlins-preparing-possible-giancarlo-stanton-return

 

At least a few at bats aren't ruled out.. but, it still doesn't seem promising for MVP unless people give him the vote for morality's sake. However, stats wise, Kershaw seems more likely with all the time out Stanton has and is going to miss.

 

 

At least a few at bats aren't ruled out.. but, it still doesn't seem promising for MVP unless people give him the vote for morality's sake. However, stats wise, Kershaw seems more likely with all the time out Stanton has and is going to miss.

 

 

 

Wild Blue- did you move out or something?

Wild Blue- did you move out or something?

 

just think more rationally sometimes. Either way, I guess the Stanton not returning news is official now?