June 9, 201313 yr It's easy to say that about the park, but that's a rather subjective observation to make about balls that "should have been" home runs. The average fly ball distance pretty definitively suggests that the low HR/FB rate is more Ozuna than outside factors (like park). Again, I think that the home run numbers will increase at some point, but I don't think you can fairly say that the park has been the main culprit so far. I don't think it's subjective to watch a game and say a player would've had a HR in just about any other park if he hits a ball 400+ ft. and it doesn't go out. The ball he hit against Aroldis Chapman the night Chapman blew the save here is just one example. It's basically Broncobob "what my eyes tell me" logic. You have no way of reliably estimating what should have been a home run in an average MLB park. I also suspect that the occurrences of robbed home runs are more infrequent than you think they are. There's actually a mathematical correlation with avg. fly ball distance. That's a much more reliable evaluation than your "eyes." The reason for this thread is because he only has 1 HR. My point is that he'd have more than 1 HR if not for the ballpark. I'm sure you believe in park factors. A ball that hits the wall in CF at Marlins Park is gone in many other ballparks/stadiums. A ball that is caught at the warning track at Marlins Park is gone in many other ballparks/stadiums. It's really not a BroncoBob Spring Training observation; it's fact based on the dimensions of many other stadiums. I'm not disputing average flyball distance. I'm just saying that there have been specific instances in which he's simply hit a ball in the wrong ballpark at the time. But you're using your own eyes to tell you what should be or shouldn't be a home run. That's subject to certain biases, which is why it's Broncobob logic. The point here is that avg. flyball distance correlates pretty well with HR/FB ratios--a stat you brought up here. Wouldn't you agree that if Ozuna's average fly ball is only going 15 feet further than Juan Pierre's that maybe the problem lies more with Ozuna himself than Marlins Park? Even if Ozuna would have gotten 1-2 more home runs by simply playing in Nationals Park or wherever, the figures still tell us that he isn't exhibiting much home run power at all right now.
June 9, 201313 yr Here's a spray chart of all of Ozuna's balls in play in Marlins Park, but superimposed upon the dimensions of Dodger Stadium (the median in HR park factors): As you can see, only one ball would have gone out that otherwise wouldn't have in Marlins Park. I'd guess Marlins Park has suppressed 1 home run--maybe 2 at the absolute most.
June 9, 201313 yr Also, I'm pretty sure that ball you see in the spray chart is the aforementioned triple off of Aroldis Chapman. It also would have only gone out in 7 of 30 MLB parks. That's why you don't rely on the Broncobob eye test.
June 10, 201313 yr The best young player on the roster, terrific on defense and hitting over 300 and with risp Let us all beat the hell out of him.
June 10, 201313 yr Not worried if he hits for average with little power The Marlins need more power, however. If they had an abundance of home run hitters, no one would care.
June 10, 201313 yr Not worried if he hits for average with little power The Marlins need more power, Aye, That they do, laddie
June 10, 201313 yr Also, I'm pretty sure that ball you see in the spray chart is the aforementioned triple off of Aroldis Chapman. It also would have only gone out in 7 of 30 MLB parks. That's why you don't rely on the Broncobob eye test. I have no idea how my name came into this. But .... Aaaaah, never mind. Not biting for a schoolyard debate. Just keep watching those numbers!! That's all anyone needs to know.
June 10, 201313 yr Author If you only look at math problems and computer programs to watch baseball then why even watch the games on tv or in person? Just watch them on the computer. The eye test is the best way to know how good a player is and unless you rely on the eyes you ne'er know what the number are telling you. Especially in defense where the computer has no clue of how good somebody I at fielding. You have to watch the players to know what they are good at. The computer does not know how good a guys arm is or how much I the field they can cover or if they have gentle hands or not.
June 10, 201313 yr perhaps I'll be considered crazy for mentioning this as well - but the ball coming off Ozuna's bat has that "sound" to it as well. Certain players just generate that beautiful loud "crack" when the ball meets the wood, Stanton has it (when he's actually healthy), Miggy had/has it, Floyd had it....I don't know if it just means the ball is lining up with the sweet spot on the barrel of the bat or what - but there is a certain sound that seems to only consistenly come from good players making contact. We can joke all we want to about how any marlin actually making contact will make a joyful noise but that sound is just...there...when he makes contact. Anyone else have an ear for what I'm talking about?
June 10, 201313 yr Author perhaps I'll be considered crazy for mentioning this as well - but the ball coming off Ozuna's bat has that "sound" to it as well. Certain players just generate that beautiful loud "crack" when the ball meets the wood, Stanton has it (when he's actually healthy), Miggy had/has it, Floyd had it....I don't know if it just means the ball is lining up with the sweet spot on the barrel of the bat or what - but there is a certain sound that seems to only consistenly come from good players making contact. We can joke all we want to about how any marlin actually making contact will make a joyful noise but that sound is just...there...when he makes contact. Anyone else have an ear for what I'm talking about? I know exactly what you are talking about. There is that very special sound that the bat makes and it sounds like a thunder clap and the ball jumps like a grass hopper. I love that sound but I have not noticed it from Ozuna but I have noticed it coming off other players sticks. I will keep ear open for Ozunas next time up and hopefully I hear that sound because it is something that you can't see looking at statistics.
June 10, 201313 yr All reports had Ozuna as a Soriano like player. To me he looks like he has an idea at the plate and will also be a 25 HR guy. Very impressed with his all around game.
June 10, 201313 yr All reports had Ozuna as a Soriano like player. To me he looks like he has an idea at the plate and will also be a 25 HR guy. Very impressed with his all around game. I'm thinking Raul Mondesi might be a good comparison.
June 10, 201313 yr Author All reports had Ozuna as a Soriano like player. To me he looks like he has an idea at the plate and will also be a 25 HR guy. Very impressed with his all around game. I'm thinking Raul Mondesi might be a good comparison.Raul Mondesi was a monster if Ozuna turns into him I would be very happy.
June 10, 201313 yr TOP 5 most impressive about Ozuna to me: 1) Can hit with RISP. Ozuna is the ultimate run producer on this team. We haven't had a player that can consistently drive guys in since a young Miggy. I'll take that anyday over a 450+ ft bomb solo shot. 2) Rocket arm. Teams should know by now not to test his arm or else he'll gun you down. He didn't make minor league Defensive team last season for nothing. Already statistically one of the best outfield defenders in the league. 3) Very good approach at this plate. Almost never looks overwhelmed/overmatched at the plate and looks to come in with a plan. Does lay off outside pitches most of the time and almost always ropes balls when making contact.
June 10, 201313 yr perhaps I'll be considered crazy for mentioning this as well - but the ball coming off Ozuna's bat has that "sound" to it as well. Certain players just generate that beautiful loud "crack" when the ball meets the wood, Stanton has it (when he's actually healthy), Miggy had/has it, Floyd had it....I don't know if it just means the ball is lining up with the sweet spot on the barrel of the bat or what - but there is a certain sound that seems to only consistenly come from good players making contact. We can joke all we want to about how any marlin actually making contact will make a joyful noise but that sound is just...there...when he makes contact. Anyone else have an ear for what I'm talking about? Agreed entirely.
June 10, 201313 yr TOP 5 most impressive about Ozuna to me: 1) Can hit with RISP. Ozuna is the ultimate run producer on this team. We haven't had a player that can consistently drive guys in since a young Miggy. I'll take that anyday over a 450+ ft bomb solo shot. 2) Rocket arm. Teams should know by now not to test his arm or else he'll gun you down. He didn't make minor league Defensive team last season for nothing. Already statistically one of the best outfield defenders in the league. 3) Very good approach at this plate. Almost never looks overwhelmed/overmatched at the plate and looks to come in with a plan. Does lay off outside pitches most of the time and almost always ropes balls when making contact. Impressive list of 5.
June 10, 201313 yr All reports had Ozuna as a Soriano like player. To me he looks like he has an idea at the plate and will also be a 25 HR guy. Very impressed with his all around game. I'm thinking Raul Mondesi might be a good comparison.Mondesi or Jose Guillen.Mondesi was a great all around player and good comparison. I'd hope for Mondesi like career over Guillen. But good call.
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