May 7, 201412 yr He's not the caliber that Fernandez or Stanton were in the minors, but he's been good enough in the minors to warrant a watch thread. Went six innings, giving up a single run today. ERA for the season now at 2.31. Discuss anything you want about Heaney and when you think he could potentially be called up here.
May 7, 201412 yr When is the earliest he can be called up without potentially being super-2? Then. Because there is no real #5 starter. Sent from my SM-N900T using Tapatalk
May 7, 201412 yr Watched some of his highlight and he's starting to give me a half chub. Can't wait til he gets the call and we move Turner to the pen
May 7, 201412 yr By the time he's passed the Super 2 deadline, I wouldn't be shocked if Koehler becomes the longman/swingman out of the bullpen rather than Turner. I'm not impressed by Turner, but Koehler is significantly outperforming his peripherals right now; he's likely more like a 4.50 ERA guy long-term.
May 7, 201412 yr By the time he's passed the Super 2 deadline, I wouldn't be shocked if Koehler becomes the longman/swingman out of the bullpen rather than Turner. I'm not impressed by Turner, but Koehler is significantly outperforming his peripherals right now; he's likely more like a 4.50 ERA guy long-term. I say keep Koehler in the rotation until Turner proves he can pitch better than him this season. So basically, Jose Eovaldi Henderson Heaney Koehler. Or, whatever. It'll probably be Turner in the rotation, you're most likely right about Koehler becoming the long man.
May 7, 201412 yr It really depends on how long the Marlins are competitive, no earlier than the June Super 2 date. If he can maintain his performance he'll be in the show by the end of the year!
May 7, 201412 yr Koehler at a low to mid 4s era is still pretty solid for your 5th starter (3 runs in 6 IP is a 4.50 ERA which = a quality start). I wish he wouldn't BB so many and eat some more innings, but yeah, keep him in that 5th spot until he proves otherwise. He's been a really nice surprise so far (despite his peripherals which hint at regression). But at least Koehler gives us a chance to win unlike Turner who is the real problem. He's just so bad and I have absolutely no confidence in him when he takes the mound. I don't see any upside in his pitches I'd rather see Slowey start. Heaney has been really good this year, but he's had a few not so stellar outings in his last few games (last night's excluded) so yeah, we definitely won't seen him before the super 2 deadline and rightly so. But I think he'll definitely be up in June which is about the time I figure the FO will finally give up on Turner.
May 7, 201412 yr I agree with Pollys time frame. We should still be in contention in June, and once the super 2 deadline passes he will likely be up if he keeps this up.
May 7, 201412 yr Koehler at a low to mid 4s era is still pretty solid for your 5th starter (3 runs in 6 IP is a 4.50 ERA which = a quality start). I wish he wouldn't BB so many and eat some more innings, but yeah, keep him in that 5th spot until he proves otherwise. He's been a really nice surprise so far (despite his peripherals which hint at regression). But at least Koehler gives us a chance to win unlike Turner who is the real problem. He's just so bad and I have absolutely no confidence in him when he takes the mound. I don't see any upside in his pitches I'd rather see Slowey start. Heaney has been really good this year, but he's had a few not so stellar outings in his last few games (last night's excluded) so yeah, we definitely won't seen him before the super 2 deadline and rightly so. But I think he'll definitely be up in June which is about the time I figure the FO will finally give up on Turner. Koehler's peripherals SCREAM regression. Look at the FIP and xFIP. I agree that that's still decent for a #5 starter, but I'm hoping that Turner will be better than that -- not optimistic, just hoping.
May 8, 201412 yr By the time he's passed the Super 2 deadline, I wouldn't be shocked if Koehler becomes the longman/swingman out of the bullpen rather than Turner. I'm not impressed by Turner, but Koehler is significantly outperforming his peripherals right now; he's likely more like a 4.50 ERA guy long-term. I couldn't disagree more, Koehler has been a very consistent performer, for the most part he has been our most improved pitcher since the end of last season...Sometimes pitchers do get better, he is throwing harder, pitching smarter and is more confident than ever before. Turner is another story altogether, he is imploding again. He may need a few more starts after coming back from injury but I just see him lacking mound presence right now Koehler needs to stay in our rotation...there is no expected regression to the mean with him...He is a very good pitcher, dominant at times
May 8, 201412 yr I couldn't disagree more, Koehler has been a very consistent performer, for the most part he has been our most improved pitcher since the end of last season...Sometimes pitchers do get better, he is throwing harder, pitching smarter and is more confident than ever before. Turner is another story altogether, he is imploding again. He may need a few more starts after coming back from injury but I just see him lacking mound presence right now Koehler needs to stay in our rotation...there is no expected regression to the mean with him...He is a very good pitcher, dominant at times
May 8, 201412 yr Watched some of his highlight and he's starting to give me a half chub. Can't wait til he gets the call and we move Turner to the pen I think Turner's next move will be to the waiver wire
May 8, 201412 yr There are some pitchers that outpitch their peripherals and Koehler seems to be one of them. He's one of those that pitch to contact so using FIP, xFIP, etc.. isn't necessary the way to go in his case. He looks to locate his pitches well with improved control. He will regress a bit, but not terribly
May 8, 201412 yr There are some pitchers that outpitch their peripherals and Koehler seems to be one of them. He's one of those that pitch to contact so using FIP, xFIP, etc.. isn't necessary the way to go in his case. He looks to locate his pitches well with improved control. He will regress a bit, but not terribly Why do you think this is the case with him? Also, do you have other examples?
May 8, 201412 yr Why do you think this is the case with him? Also, do you have other examples? Henderson Alvarez is another example.
May 9, 201412 yr Henderson Alvarez is another example. No, he's not. Henderson Alvarez has performed right in line with his FIP and xFIP. He only has one full season under his belt, anyway, so he wouldn't be a good example regardless. Mark Buehrle came to mind as a prototype, but even his ERA/FIP/xFIP splits aren't too far off: 3.81, 4.12, 4.20.
May 9, 201412 yr Henderson Alvarez is another example. No he's not. They're completely different pitchers. Come on WC you can do better than that.
May 9, 201412 yr There are some pitchers that outpitch their peripherals and Koehler seems to be one of them. He's one of those that pitch to contact so using FIP, xFIP, etc.. isn't necessary the way to go in his case. He looks to locate his pitches well with improved control. He will regress a bit, but not terribly Even if you don't believe in the effectiveness of FIP and xFIP as predictive stats, Koehler is giving up a BABIP of .195 despite a career average of .270. BABIP isn't entirely luck based, seeing as how some pitchers tend to give up weaker contact than others, but .195 will never be sustainable.
May 9, 201412 yr Even if you don't believe in the effectiveness of FIP and xFIP as predictive stats, Koehler is giving up a BABIP of .195 despite a career average of .270. BABIP isn't entirely luck based, seeing as how some pitchers tend to give up weaker contact than others, but .195 will never be sustainable. Koehler's GB rate is at a career high so that's nice. His BB rate and K rate still stink though. I think he's just fine at home and will continue to be a useful SP there, but he's been beat up a little more on the road (still an acceptable 4.15 era though). This upcoming series will tell us a lot about Tom imo.
May 9, 201412 yr Koehler's GB rate is at a career high so that's nice. His BB rate and K rate still stink though. I think he's just fine at home and will continue to be a useful SP there, but he's been beat up a little more on the road (still an acceptable 4.15 era though). This upcoming series will tell us a lot about Tom imo. With guys like Hech, Dietrich, and Jones in our infield, we can never expect a guy who gets 50% ground balls to only give up hits on 19% of the balls in play. Not even a great defensive team could expect that, and our infield is far below average, let alone great.
May 9, 201412 yr No he's not. They're completely different pitchers. Come on WC you can do better than that. I guess I should have said Henderson Alvarez of 2013. This year the numbers match the success, last year they didn't. With guys like Hech, Dietrich, and Jones in our infield, we can never expect a guy who gets 50% ground balls to only give up hits on 19% of the balls in play. Not even a great defensive team could expect that, and our infield is far below average, let alone great. Far below average is an overstatement. The left side is fine, the right side is below average on most nights.
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.