1 hour ago, SilverBullet said:

That was the previous front office and the thought that this new FO was doing it too was silly as that's not something ever set in stone. I remember Scoop talking about this and it was dumb.

Scoop also said yesterday he thinks Jazz should lead off simply because of his speed, and also thinks people "dismiss" Jazz and "assume he's the player they saw last year with no room for growth" (basically).

Good ol' Scoop Frisaro. 

I’m going to call my shot. Laureano is going to be a marlin within the first couple weeks of the big league season. 
 

It makes too much sense for both parties; the marlins clearly don’t want to give up Meyer/Eury/Edward, and that’s what it’s going to take to get an elite player. The A’s can’t reasonably expect to get that type of package for Laureano, especially not after the suspension. 

The marlins have a void at CF, both on the MLB roster and in the system. They know this. They can cover up with Bleday playing there in AAA for now, but they know. 

Laureano is going to get dealt. It’s not if, but when. They’ll get a package of Fulton,  VMJ, and Fitterer, and that’s about it. 

 

5 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

If they win 100 games and sweep the WS that's a fair assessment? I get it but his point was that they could prove everyone wrong and still go with the same narrative.

well, again, you'd have to wait and see if they actually retain the talent that got them that WS win and added to it. until then, it would be a 100% fair assessment to wonder if they'd do another firesale when the talent gets expensive.

29 minutes ago, hovertical said:

well, again, you'd have to wait and see if they actually retain the talent that got them that WS win and added to it. until then, it would be a 100% fair assessment to wonder if they'd do another firesale when the talent gets expensive.

Shoot with every player having 47 years of control, better keep em all together.

You are correct.

34 minutes ago, Michael said:

Shoot with every player having 47 years of control, better keep em all together.

You are correct.

Fwiw, I do get irritated at how 98% of articles are negative too. You're not alone in that sentiment but it's pretty easy to see why that is and this regime hasn't really done anything to sway that stench of cheapness either. Not yet anyway.

8 hours ago, Das Texan said:

This isnt even about writers writing stories though.

This is about actually making moves indictive of wanting to win as many baseball games as possible. 

Omg stfu, they basically made every move but trading the farm for a CF’er.

You’re talking like they didn’t make a single move. 

You also don’t know what the asking price was for the players they wanted. 

1 hour ago, marlins_09 said:

I’m going to call my shot. Laureano is going to be a marlin within the first couple weeks of the big league season. 
 

It makes too much sense for both parties; the marlins clearly don’t want to give up Meyer/Eury/Edward, and that’s what it’s going to take to get an elite player. The A’s can’t reasonably expect to get that type of package for Laureano, especially not after the suspension. 

The marlins have a void at CF, both on the MLB roster and in the system. They know this. They can cover up with Bleday playing there in AAA for now, but they know. 

Laureano is going to get dealt. It’s not if, but when. They’ll get a package of Fulton,  VMJ, and Fitterer, and that’s about it. 

 

While I don't disagree that this may happen and works for everyone, if I was Oakland I'd laugh at that package and hang up. If you're right, Ng is a genius for getting Laureano for a FV45, FV40+, and FV40 prospect. 

It's very hard not to project Laureano as a 3+ WAR player moving forward (career 4.5+ per 600 PA). Sure, suspension (Marlins said in Miami Herald that doesn't sway them and thinks an accident) and injuries... but ultimately this is a very good, high floor (defense) and pretty decent ceiling player (hit tool, some power, big time speed). He's not Reynolds bat, but he's good. Makes a lot of sense for Miami also being a guy who hits lefties too. Oakland is going to say hey he got hurt, he's better than that too. Prior to the suspension FG had him as the 40th most valuable player in baseball - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-31-to-40/. 40th! This is like trading for Pablo Lopez. That's who Laureano is. We'd want A LOT for Pablo.

A 3+ WAR player for 3 years (ages 27-29) and not going to make much more than $15-18m bucks during that time which is very important as this is not guaranteed money and that is nothing.... is at absolute minimum to me, (1) Sixto/Eder, (2) Bleday/Salas, (3) Burdick/Lewis/Fulton, and (4) Jerar/throw in.  Maybe they chuck in Kemp or Trivino (which also would be helpful).

I can't see them getting out of this without trading two of the top 8 (Watson, Eury, Meyer, Cabrera, Bleday, Sixto, Eder, Salas) and one of the next 10 (Fulton, Burdick, Lewis, Mack, McCambley, Cappe, VMJR, Morisette, Nunez, Fitterer or so). Laureano's warts probably push this to "guy 7 and 8" to avoid the top end and then depending if you get the Trivino/Kemp kicker you get someone better in that next 10 than being stuck one of the later ones. Marlins basically need to pony up Bleday here.

Personally, I'd trade for Laureano, Kemp, and Trivino in a SECOND for Sixto/Eder, Bleday/Salas, Burdick/Lewis, Fitterer, and 1-2 outside top 20 throw ins. They get Laureano and two solid veterans and effectively retain their top 6 prospects? We're back where we started. Ng is a genius.

11 minutes ago, Erick said:

Omg stfu, they basically made every move but trading the farm for a CF’er.

You’re talking like they didn’t make a single move. 

You also don’t know what the asking price was for the players they wanted. 

Yea but that CF move is really massive. Really massive.

Fangraphs has them as an 82-80 team.... and payroll is around $75m and they have 8-9 of the top 125 or so prospects in baseball considering Eder, Bleday, Salas, and Burdick have all made top 100 lists. They don't really need the prospects right now except for 1-2 pitchers.

Criticism is VERY warranted for not spending more for an upgrade and/or trading the farm when a reasonable analysis says you're .500. What's the plan here? Why spend all of this money to be average?

We're talking "one" 5 WAR guy (Reynolds/Correa) from this being a TEAM and considering they are spending $20m on Aguilar/Soler, there is definitely budget to have done this and only lose 3 of their 10 prospects. So they'd still have many goods ones and great 2022 first round pick.

They should have signed Correa (+$32), traded for Reynolds (+$7), never signed Soler (-$12), DFA Aguilar (-$7)..... and this is a $95m team and only Watson, Eury/Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Eder, and Bleday/Salas/Burdick were sacrificed. Who is mad? They have arms and other guys in the farm.

That's at least an 88 win projection. For what..... $95 million and the team is club controlled for years? 

When do they want to win, 2024?

 

22 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Yea but that CF move is really massive. Really massive.

Fangraphs has them as an 82-80 team.... and payroll is around $75m and they have 8-9 of the top 125 or so prospects in baseball considering Eder, Bleday, Salas, and Burdick have all made top 100 lists. They don't really need the prospects right now except for 1-2 pitchers.

Criticism is VERY warranted for not spending more for an upgrade and/or trading the farm when a reasonable analysis says you're .500. What's the plan here? Why spend all of this money to be average?

We're talking "one" 5 WAR guy (Reynolds/Correa) from this being a TEAM and considering they are spending $20m on Aguilar/Soler, there is definitely budget to have done this and only lose 3 of their 10 prospects. So they'd still have many goods ones and great 2022 first round pick.

They should have signed Correa (+$32), traded for Reynolds (+$7), never signed Soler (-$12), DFA Aguilar (-$7)..... and this is a $95m team and only Watson, Eury/Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Eder, and Bleday/Salas/Burdick were sacrificed. Who is mad? They have arms and other guys in the farm.

That's at least an 88 win projection. For what..... $95 million and the team is club controlled for years? 

When do they want to win, 2024?

 

They probably didn't even bother contacting Correa.

 

 

They want to win the best system award 80 years in a row.  

This is also not the last year in the Marlins competitive window. I get the frustration, but this isn't some aging club on expiring contracts.

I think Bleday surprises us this year, kicks the door down and they are forced to have a mess in the outfield, but so fucking what?

This also isn't exactly wishful thinking. There is reason to believe this has a decent chance of happening, kind of how young players that cost a lot to acquire have a decent chance of regressing.

I get that we’re impatient because this team hasn’t made the playoffs in a very long time (not counting the fluke Covid season), but I’m not really going to criticize the front office this offseason as much as it’s been criticized lately. Especially Kim Ng who hasn’t been here for most of the disastrous past years.

She got a very good catcher upgrade, signed Garcia/Soler (which seems redundant to me, but improves the offense either way), added depth, and just traded nearly nothing for 2 MLB caliber relievers when we were complaining about the bullpen just a few days ago.

I don’t know what the Pirates wanted for Reynolds. Is Reynolds even available? He’s still in Pittsburgh. 

I also don’t know that Carlos Correa wanted to sign here (if that’s even the smart move for this organization, I don’t know).

If Jesus Sanchez can be average in CF, we’re not even talking about this moving forward. I think we all expect to him hit just fine so we’ll see. Defensively, there are some metrics to suggest he can do it.

Also, not that it should be fully excused, but it’s worth noting that maybe OF defense isn’t prioritized as much because the pitching doesn’t allow many fly balls. We mostly have a staff of pitchers who can get their strikeouts and primarily keep the ball on the ground. Maybe that’s part of the mentality when building this team. The Braves won the World Series last year with an OF of Soler-Duvall-Rosario. Not exactly 3 Gold Glovers. If the outfielders all hit the ball this year, we’ll probably care a little less about the questionable defense. 

Edited April 6, 20224 yr by Erick

Stupid organization, continue to waste a roster spot to him, I blame Ng on this one. 

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

While I don't disagree that this may happen and works for everyone, if I was Oakland I'd laugh at that package and hang up. If you're right, Ng is a genius for getting Laureano for a FV45, FV40+, and FV40 prospect. 

It's very hard not to project Laureano as a 3+ WAR player moving forward (career 4.5+ per 600 PA). Sure, suspension (Marlins said in Miami Herald that doesn't sway them and thinks an accident) and injuries... but ultimately this is a very good, high floor (defense) and pretty decent ceiling player (hit tool, some power, big time speed). He's not Reynolds bat, but he's good. Makes a lot of sense for Miami also being a guy who hits lefties too. Oakland is going to say hey he got hurt, he's better than that too. Prior to the suspension FG had him as the 40th most valuable player in baseball - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-31-to-40/. 40th! This is like trading for Pablo Lopez. That's who Laureano is. We'd want A LOT for Pablo.

A 3+ WAR player for 3 years (ages 27-29) and not going to make much more than $15-18m bucks during that time which is very important as this is not guaranteed money and that is nothing.... is at absolute minimum to me, (1) Sixto/Eder, (2) Bleday/Salas, (3) Burdick/Lewis/Fulton, and (4) Jerar/throw in.  Maybe they chuck in Kemp or Trivino (which also would be helpful).

I can't see them getting out of this without trading two of the top 8 (Watson, Eury, Meyer, Cabrera, Bleday, Sixto, Eder, Salas) and one of the next 10 (Fulton, Burdick, Lewis, Mack, McCambley, Cappe, VMJR, Morisette, Nunez, Fitterer or so). Laureano's warts probably push this to "guy 7 and 8" to avoid the top end and then depending if you get the Trivino/Kemp kicker you get someone better in that next 10 than being stuck one of the later ones. Marlins basically need to pony up Bleday here.

Personally, I'd trade for Laureano, Kemp, and Trivino in a SECOND for Sixto/Eder, Bleday/Salas, Burdick/Lewis, Fitterer, and 1-2 outside top 20 throw ins. They get Laureano and two solid veterans and effectively retain their top 6 prospects? We're back where we started. Ng is a genius.

I appreciate your thorough response. I don’t disagree with a majority of what you’re saying, and if I was Oakland, I’d ask for those same prospects you’re mentioning. However, i do believe they’re inclined to move Laureano given his arb status, their window (see move for Pache) and then there’s the PED deal of course. I don’t believe that fangraphs reference is an accurate reflection of his trade value today. We’re talking about a high floor CF given his defense, but one that hasn’t  put up a significant offensive season in 2+ calendar years. 
 

Yes, he is absolutely still a valuable player and will require at the very least parting with quality, if not extraordinary prospects. However, I get the sense his value on the market might be closer to a Kiermier type than a Reynolds/Mullins (or at least closer than you might think). 

I genuinely try not to send fan proposals attempting to get an impact player for peanuts. I believe the lack of suitors paired with his stock being at an all-time low will result in a surprisingly low return for whoever ends up acquiring him 

Edited April 6, 20224 yr by marlins_09

Eh. They'll sign Marisnick and keep De La Cruz in the minors.

Blah blah blah. 

Catch our Sails in 2022!

3 hours ago, Major-Minor said:

Eh. They'll sign Marisnick and keep De La Cruz in the minors.

Blah blah blah. 

Catch our Sails in 2022!

Marisnick already signed with Texas so that's out.

6 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Stupid organization, continue to waste a roster spot to him, I blame Ng on this one. 

At least he isn't on the 40 man anymore.

If he performs like this, though, in AAA, he's absolutely getting released soon.

2 hours ago, Michael said:

Marisnick already signed with Texas so that's out.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/rangers-release-jake-marisnick-brandon-workman.html

8 hours ago, Erick said:

If Jesus Sanchez can be average in CF, we’re not even talking about this moving forward. I think we all expect to him hit just fine so we’ll see. Defensively, there are some metrics to suggest he can do it.

Also, not that it should be fully excused, but it’s worth noting that maybe OF defense isn’t prioritized as much because the pitching doesn’t allow many fly balls. We mostly have a staff of pitchers who can get their strikeouts and primarily keep the ball on the ground. Maybe that’s part of the mentality when building this team. The Braves won the World Series last year with an OF of Soler-Duvall-Rosario. Not exactly 3 Gold Glovers. If the outfielders all hit the ball this year, we’ll probably care a little less about the questionable defense. 

If Sanchez can play average CF defense - which means he is better defensively than Reynolds or Mullins - yes we are all assholes, crow will be eaten, and Ng/FO is a genius for turning this guy into a viable longterm CF.

To note, FG thinks the Marlins have the 17th best CF situation in baseball (Sanchez/Garcia platoon basically). I think that's wrong (and ignores the negative impacts to LF, RF, and 3B through various position arrangements), but if they are right that isn't a disaster of course. Also, that isn't their worst position ranking in their system. 2B/Jazz is the low at 22 I believe.... they think he needs more time but acknowledge the upside. So maybe there are issues we're not thinking about right now.

In any event, criticism then shifts that if they KNEW that to be true because they've had Sanchez a few years and know he can do it, why wasn't he playing CF every day in the minors. And why are they hellbent at getting a CF this offseason and just saying it's cost-prohibitive?

More importantly, why is the team also an 82 win projection at a $75m payroll/all top prospects where you can luxury upgrade any spot on the field to get that up another 3-5 wins so your margin of error is lower? They are SO CLOSE to being a real contender on paper and they are stopping just short. It's literally 1 stud, or 2 "Soler" level upgrades from getting there. That's the frustration for me, and amplified with low payroll/8-12 amazing prospects where they can afford to move 3-4 of them to finish the job. 

They need a major bat upgrade somewhere, and ideally two. They should at minimum do 1 now (and CF makes the most sense by far for longterm purposes), and then that's reasonable to get to the deadline as maybe Bleday/Burdick/Lewin have exploded, or the SP are all amazing so they'll absolutely get a better impact bat than today.
 

17 minutes ago, Major-Minor said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/rangers-release-jake-marisnick-brandon-workman.html

Ooh we should sign Workman

8 hours ago, marlins_09 said:

I appreciate your thorough response. I don’t disagree with a majority of what you’re saying, and if I was Oakland, I’d ask for those same prospects you’re mentioning. However, i do believe they’re inclined to move Laureano given his arb status, their window (see move for Pache) and then there’s the PED deal of course. I don’t believe that fangraphs reference is an accurate reflection of his trade value today. We’re talking about a high floor CF given his defense, but one that hasn’t  put up a significant offensive season in 2+ calendar years. 
 

Yes, he is absolutely still a valuable player and will require at the very least parting with quality, if not extraordinary prospects. However, I get the sense his value on the market might be closer to a Kiermier type than a Reynolds/Mullins (or at least closer than you might think). 

I genuinely try not to send fan proposals attempting to get an impact player for peanuts. I believe the lack of suitors paired with his stock being at an all-time low will result in a surprisingly low return for whoever ends up acquiring him 

They have no rush to move him - let him come back in May and be "good" as he has the years of control left. He isn't blocking Pache. They can both start. I think it's a nominal discount from last summer. That's what we'd do if we were Oakland.

If we split the difference with your idea and mine as maybe I'm high and you're low, we're talking something like (1) Sixto/Eder/Bleday, (2) Salas/Fulton/Burdick, (3) VMJR/Cappe/Morisette/Nunez/Fitterer/McCambley, and (4) Outside 25 throw in. Kemp or Trivino can probably also be in that deal depending on preference in names, and both would be very helpful. I'm taking that risk. I think Laureano adds 3-4 wins to this team as even if he tracks low as a defender/lefty killer 2+ WAR guy, they'll make up ground at LF, RF, and 3B being able to play smarter defensive alignments and better LHP lineups.

But as you've said, this can absolutely happen May 1st. Hopefully Sanchez isn't so terrible teams smell the desperation. 

Elieser is good to go. No major damage.

7 minutes ago, Michael said:

Elieser is good to go. No major damage.

Good to go on the IL?

17 hours ago, Erick said:

Omg stfu, they basically made every move but trading the farm for a CF’er.

You’re talking like they didn’t make a single move. 

You also don’t know what the asking price was for the players they wanted. 

Doesn’t matter the cost. The cost could have honestly been 15 mil or less aav for 3-4 years.  
 

when they declined that option the other options were known. 
 

It’s like you solve issues b-g but issue a (buying a house for example) you refused to address so what’s the fucking point?

 

you either act like you want to win or just talk about it. 
 

talk is cheap. 
 

actions speak louder. 
 

the marlins failed miserably at fixing their biggest issue. 

6 hours ago, Major-Minor said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/rangers-release-jake-marisnick-brandon-workman.html

I think it's the same Marisnick.