5 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

 

Very good read. Good to see they haven't forgotten Bleday exists...

1 hour ago, Entendu said:

Very good read. Good to see they haven't forgotten Bleday exists...

And that he did well!

2 hours ago, Entendu said:

Those teams are usually out of the race by April.

which is a major issue for the union (and should be).

you'd think the commissioner's office would invoke best interest of the game or something but since he works for owners.....

12 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

 

I don't love Reynolds defensively, but he is OK and can really hit so I'd be open to this with the idea of getting a longterm CF in 2-3 years and he gets to a corner. I think you'd try and blow them away with quantity and try and preserve Eury and Watson. This is something like...

Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Eder/Fulton, Salas/Cappe/Morisette/Nunez, McCambley, Neidert, and Harrison/Diaz/Poteet throw in.

Effectively, this is one of their top 4 prospects, and three more in their top 6-15 range with two dart throw throw ins. It's a quantity lowball, but those guys don't suck. Try. I don't think they'd do it for lack of a top end prospect (others in baseball would certainly include better centerpieces), and the actual trade would be something like...

Eury/Watson, Meyer, Burdick/Bleday/Eder/Fulton, Neidert/Poteet/Outside top 20 arm, and Harrison as a throw in

I'd still do it. They need an impact CF that bad and are kidding themselves if they don't. Maybe they'll realize they can't mortgage the future if you get a guy with 4 years of control and the future is now. You know, how the Brewers traded even better prospects for Yelich.

I really hope its a flurry of moves once the lockout ends. I want to know if they care or just are interested in running a bottom 5 payroll, with imperfect teams, and excess prospects.

22 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Meyer, Bleday/Burdick, Eder/Fulton, Salas/Cappe/Morisette/Nunez, McCambley, Neidert, and Harrison/Diaz/Poteet throw in.

Lou, I love your posts, they're just about always informative.

That said, any combination shown here is ... a bit much, I think. Seven players for one? I understand the final choice is a "throw-in" (unless Neidert is too), so we can say really five or six, still seems too much.

Including the Stallings trade, we would basically be giving them their entire starting rotation for the next few years. For two players.

2 hours ago, Michael said:

Lou, I love your posts, they're just about always informative.

That said, any combination shown here is ... a bit much, I think. Seven players for one? I understand the final choice is a "throw-in" (unless Neidert is too), so we can say really five or six, still seems too much.

Including the Stallings trade, we would basically be giving them their entire starting rotation for the next few years. For two players.

Is it possible be a “7 for 3” or “7 for 2” in the Reynolds trade ?

Edited January 27, 20224 yr by taiwanmarlin

5 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Is it possible be a “7 for 3” or “7 for 2” ?

We did a 6 for 2 with the Cabrera trade.

We also effectively did a 0 for 1 with the Yelich trade!

 

**This would also then be a 10 for 2 trade once you factor in the Stallings' return.

3 hours ago, Michael said:

Lou, I love your posts, they're just about always informative.

That said, any combination shown here is ... a bit much, I think. Seven players for one? I understand the final choice is a "throw-in" (unless Neidert is too), so we can say really five or six, still seems too much.

Including the Stallings trade, we would basically be giving them their entire starting rotation for the next few years. For two players.

Thanks, but I have to disagree. Reynolds (4+ WAR projection for 4 cheapish years, all non-guaranteed via arbitration, and a prime candidate for a Sandy style buyout) is extremely valuable. More than Ketel (3 years of control).

Yelich brought three top 100 prospects. Brinson was in the 30s, Monte the 60s, and Diaz in the 90s. Based on BA's most recent list, Watson is in later 40s, Meyer 70s, and someone like Eder/Bleday/Burdick is not there (however, I assume they are all healthy 101-150 guys, with Eder and Bleday moving up quickly with health and if AFL was real). 

Reynolds isn't as valuable as Yelich at time of trade (Yelich was signed for another year, and was more of a 5+ WAR projection guy), but we cannot sell Reynolds short at all (coming off a 5.5 WAR season). He is worth double prospect centerpieces (and Meyer is barely one), and a really good third player. Look at what the Blue Jays gave up for Jose Berrios (Reynolds is better). The Blue Jays gave up two awesome prospects.

Nearly everyone in baseball will be on Reynolds if he is made available. You gotta convince the Pirates and beat them all, it's not just what will the Marlins extend. Honestly, Watson/Meyer/Burdick may be TOO LOW if anything. The Pirates have no incentive to move him with that control. This is why Reynolds is unlikely, you gotta blow them away. The only way I see that happening is starting with Watson and Meyer(or Eury or Cabrera).

Also, I'd gladly give up for two players with combined 7 years of service time who project for 6-7 WAR per year, and making $6-7million in 2022, for call it a FV55(Watson), FV55 (Meyer/Cabrera), FV45(Burdick/Fulton), FV45(Misner), FV40(Nicolas), Zack Thompson, Nick Neidert, Monte Harrison/throw-in, and FV35(Scott). It's a lot of potential talent, versus proven production.

Maybe Reynolds doesn't perform and it's a bust, but I like his hit tool. They gotta take some swings for the fences eventually. He's one of the few guys in baseball I'd do it for (Ketel is another, maybe Mullens, etc.)

51 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Nearly everyone in baseball will be on Reynolds if he is made available

It's why I want a biggest playoff expansion. 

Pfft. Make the moves regardless. Make the moves if they SHRINK the playoffs. Make them if best record is automatically champion. Just make the moves.

1 hour ago, Michael said:

Pfft. Make the moves regardless. Make the moves if they SHRINK the playoffs. Make them if best record is automatically champion. Just make the moves.

Should always be attempting to put the best product on the field.  Not making moves because they playoff field is too small means they have zero intention of competing year after year and are already throwing in the towel. They've had their rebuild. Time is now. SPEND.

9 minutes ago, hovertical said:

They've had their rebuild. Time is now. SPEND

I mean it's like 9:30 am on a random Friday in January. "Now" seems like a bit of a stretch don't ya think?

Just now, SilverBullet said:

I mean it's like 9:30 am on a random Friday in January. "Now" seems like a bit of a stretch don't ya think?

NO

RIGHT NOW

3 minutes ago, Michael said:

NO

RIGHT NOW

CAN I AT LEAST HAVE BREAKFAST FIRST?

43 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

CAN I AT LEAST HAVE BREAKFAST FIRST?

Skip breakfast

46 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

CAN I AT LEAST HAVE BREAKFAST FIRST?

A SMOOTHIE, AT MOST

35 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

Skip breakfast

 

32 minutes ago, Michael said:

A SMOOTHIE, AT MOST

26 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

 

I need to watch this show, I've heard it's good.

If the Marlins are going to even CONSIDER getting Reynolds from the Pirates the ask will be MASSIVE.

Supply/Demand for one with there being no real CF on the free agent market.

Length on control remaining for Reynolds will factor in.

Actual production Reynolds has made will factor in.

Lou is pretty much spot on.

Its going to be 2 massive premium prospects (Cherington has favored position player fyi in his past).  This really could be 2 bats.

And then 2-3 high upside prospects.  

None of this hope to hit on a guy with some type of massive power potential the Marlins were infatuated with when they were making their big trades a few years ago, but guys that are highly projectable Major League regulars.  This could be 2 arms and a bat.

If the Marlins can acquire Reynolds it will HURT in terms of organizational depth.

 

Its why the massive FUCK UP this team made with Starling Marte is so idiotic.  Its like these fucking idiots cant even read the room, and look at the upcoming market along with the lack of CF depth organizationally, so ya lets low ball Marte completely and piss him off when he would sign for something fairly reasonable because we are smarter than everyone and he said he wants to play here so, there is that!  And then they had a second chance to sign him in free agency but werent willing to swallow that pill,  so now the only alternative to acquire a real CF is going to be even MORE painful.  Just so stupid and all because of immense cheapness. 

It may be the most colossal mistake since actually trading Yelich for no real reason at the time other than to reduce payroll and put more money in ownership's pockets.  

 

17 minutes ago, Michael said:

I need to watch this show, I've heard it's good.

This is getting to the point where now I'm questioning if I've even seen it.

22 minutes ago, Das Texan said:

If the Marlins are going to even CONSIDER getting Reynolds from the Pirates the ask will be MASSIVE.

Supply/Demand for one with there being no real CF on the free agent market.

Length on control remaining for Reynolds will factor in.

Actual production Reynolds has made will factor in.

Lou is pretty much spot on.

Its going to be 2 massive premium prospects (Cherington has favored position player fyi in his past).  This really could be 2 bats.

And then 2-3 high upside prospects.  

None of this hope to hit on a guy with some type of massive power potential the Marlins were infatuated with when they were making their big trades a few years ago, but guys that are highly projectable Major League regulars.  This could be 2 arms and a bat.

If the Marlins can acquire Reynolds it will HURT in terms of organizational depth.

 

Its why the massive FUCK UP this team made with Starling Marte is so idiotic.  Its like these fucking idiots cant even read the room, and look at the upcoming market along with the lack of CF depth organizationally, so ya lets low ball Marte completely and piss him off when he would sign for something fairly reasonable because we are smarter than everyone and he said he wants to play here so, there is that!  And then they had a second chance to sign him in free agency but werent willing to swallow that pill,  so now the only alternative to acquire a real CF is going to be even MORE painful.  Just so stupid and all because of immense cheapness. 

It may be the most colossal mistake since actually trading Yelich for no real reason at the time other than to reduce payroll and put more money in ownership's pockets.  

 

Marlins don't have two centerpiece bats to send. They got Watson and Bleday is not that (today, give him two months obliterating AAA and may skyrocket). Eury, Cabrera, Sixto, Meyer, and maybe Eder are their other centerpieces. 

Getting Reynolds would definitely "hurt" the farm, but ask the Brewers or mid 2000s Detroit Tigers how that worked out for them.

Or they can just sign Bryant/Correa (dump Aguilar for payroll help), trade for Keirmaier/Hicks for free, and sign a luxury reliever.

Keep everyone and run a... still bottom 10 payroll. Maybe bottom 12 worst case scenario.

24 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Marlins don't have two centerpiece bats to send. They got Watson and Bleday is not that (today, give him two months obliterating AAA and may skyrocket). Eury, Cabrera, Sixto, Meyer, and maybe Eder are their other centerpieces. 

Getting Reynolds would definitely "hurt" the farm, but ask the Brewers or mid 2000s Detroit Tigers how that worked out for them.

I wouldnt put Sixto in the centerpiece category at this point at all.  There is far too much risk for him at this point.  

And this is going to be a problem for the Marlins in trying to get Reynolds.  If they arent willing to include Watson they arent getting Reynolds.  The lack of sure fire bats is going to make the cost of the secondary pieces that much more significant.  

It would cost them 2 plus maybe 1 almost premium bat (probably Bleday) plus another 2-3 really good prospects.

But yes, it would be easier to sign some big bats, just like it would have been easier to well sign Starling Marte.   The  Ketal Marte ask probably isnt that much less in terms of premium prospects btw.  I imagine he would cost you Watson as well and then its a matter of  what else. 

8 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

It's why I want a biggest playoff expansion. 

 

Uh no.  Moves should be made regardless of postseason expansion or not.

 

37 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Or they can just sign Bryant/Correa (dump Aguilar for payroll help), trade for Keirmaier/Hicks for free, and sign a luxury reliever.

Keep everyone and run a... still bottom 10 payroll. Maybe bottom 12 worst case scenario.

Yes please.  But wont happen 😞