2 hours ago, Das Texan said:

I wouldnt put Sixto in the centerpiece category at this point at all.  There is far too much risk for him at this point.  

And this is going to be a problem for the Marlins in trying to get Reynolds.  If they arent willing to include Watson they arent getting Reynolds.  The lack of sure fire bats is going to make the cost of the secondary pieces that much more significant.  

It would cost them 2 plus maybe 1 almost premium bat (probably Bleday) plus another 2-3 really good prospects.

But yes, it would be easier to sign some big bats, just like it would have been easier to well sign Starling Marte.   The  Ketal Marte ask probably isnt that much less in terms of premium prospects btw.  I imagine he would cost you Watson as well and then its a matter of  what else. 

The thing with Sixto is, BA just released their updated list and kept him firmly in the 60s. They aren't a bunch of jerks, so despite some "Mish intel," I think it's fair to also acknowledge other industry sources still view him as a future big time arm. But, I do agree with you, if the Marlins are going one of these Reynolds/Ketel/Mullens trades, they can't argue Sixto versus Cabrera or Meyer. They give up whoever they will take. Any of these deals are definitely Eury/Watson and Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto. The only difference with Reynolds versus Marte is Reynolds gets a better 3rd player.

I can't wait for the offseason to be over so we can stop with the speculation. I also can't wait for Bleday and Sixto to ride in this season and take this team to the top without having to trade the farm.

1 minute ago, Entendu said:

I can't wait for the offseason to be over so we can stop with the speculation. I also can't wait for Bleday and Sixto to ride in this season and take this team to the top without having to trade the farm.

Victor Victor will be following JJ right to Miami and into the Marlin outfield right?

1 hour ago, Das Texan said:

Victor Victor will be following JJ right to Miami and into the Marlin outfield right?

Victor Jr. will.

You cock.

8 hours ago, Entendu said:

I can't wait for the offseason to be over

This lockout needs to be over first. 

19 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Uh no.  Moves should be made regardless of postseason expansion or not.

I think the post-season expansion would entice this team to strengthen their improvements.

34 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

I think the post-season expansion would entice this team to strengthen their improvements.

It would, yes, and push them to try more in the middle of the season as well. That said ... future moves shouldn't be predicated on playoff expansion. Make them anyways. Try to be part of the currently allowable field instead of hoping they lower some metaphorical stairs to allow you up.

4 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

I think the post-season expansion would entice this team to strengthen their improvements.

 

4 hours ago, Michael said:

It would, yes, and push them to try more in the middle of the season as well. That said ... future moves shouldn't be predicated on playoff expansion. Make them anyways. Try to be part of the currently allowable field instead of hoping they lower some metaphorical stairs to allow you up.

This.

 

They need to understand die hards are done if they don't continue to make big moves and push to actually compete regardless of a smaller or bigger field.

2 minutes ago, rmc523 said:

They need to understand die hards are done if they don't continue to make big moves and push to actually compete

Some of us anyway. Others would find a way to excuse them.

The best case scenario for the Starling drama would be : they setting a high limit for the offers to him due to his high age and not afraid to lose him due to they're 100% would acquire at least one of Reynolds /Ketel /Mullins /Castellanos /Schwarber /Conforto.

The worst case scenario would be : their determination to WIN is just not as high as we expected. 

11 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

The best case scenario for the Starling drama would be : they setting a high limit for the offers to him due to his high age and not afraid to lose him due to they're 100% would acquire at least one of Reynolds /Ketel /Mullins /Castellanos /Schwarber /Conforto.

The worst case scenario would be : their determination to WIN is just not as high as we expected. 

I wasnt aware Castellanos/Schwarber/Confortoto  have the ability to play CF.

 

7 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

 

what an idiotic headline.

Do they have the means to acquire Reynolds:  yes.

Do they have the gravitas to make that trade:  TBD.

Not really sure why that expresses any 'confidence' though.  

4 hours ago, Das Texan said:

what an idiotic headline.

Do they have the means to acquire Reynolds:  yes.

Do they have the gravitas to make that trade:  TBD.

Not really sure why that expresses any 'confidence' though.  

Should be have "confidence " to outbid all other teams. 

8 hours ago, Das Texan said:

what an idiotic headline.

Do they have the means to acquire Reynolds:  yes.

Do they have the gravitas to make that trade:  TBD.

Not really sure why that expresses any 'confidence' though.  

It's the fake news clickbait bullshit that Fish Stripes and all those other fan-written SB Nation websites are built on. Can't stand them. They're all a disaster. Random people speculating on things and trying to pass it off as actual news. It's only made worse by the people who share those articles as if they're worth anything. 

22 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

It's the fake news clickbait bullshit that Fish Stripes and all those other fan-written SB Nation websites are built on. Can't stand them. They're all a disaster. Random people speculating on things and trying to pass it off as actual news. It's only made worse by the people who share those articles as if they're worth anything. 

I believe everyone here knows that's something written by somebody not professional baseball journalist and it's not a big deal to share it when nothing is available in a lockout …

3 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

I believe everyone here knows that's something written by somebody not professional baseball journalist and it's not a big deal to share it when nothing is available in a lockout …

You can share it here all you want, the people on here know what it is but many other people see those articles on Twitter and other places and share them and quote them and reference them as if they have any value. 

11 hours ago, Das Texan said:

what an idiotic headline.

Do they have the means to acquire Reynolds:  yes.

Do they have the gravitas to make that trade:  TBD.

Not really sure why that expresses any 'confidence' though.  

It's a very, very, bad article. But let's use this as an opportunity to rank the bad takes because that's all there is to do here and we can use this as a learning experience:

1 - Reynolds is BETTER than Yelich - WUUUUUUUUUUUUT? Yelich was coming off multiple years of performance (making him safer), younger, a better defender for a higher floor, and controlled for more years at the time of trade. This take is just as awful as the product of the Yelich trade. 

2 - Who in the actual fuck gives a shit about leading the league in triples? Why is this emphasized? What does this suggest? I struggled whether to put this 2-8 on the bad takes list (#1 is really hard to overlook), and this is minor so who cares, but this is such a fundamental problem with people in the "media" emphasizing stats that don't matter, it needs to be on the higher end of the list. Who cares at all about this? Reynolds is fantastic and a triples counting stat does nothing to tell us if he is good or not. He could hit none next year and be awesome.

3 - Pablo Lopez being a potential trade fit because he has 3 years of control and is cheaper than Reynolds - For a team not close to contending, why do the Pirates want a centerpiece with LESS team control than Reynolds? Pablo is literally THE WORST pitcher in the organization for the Pirates to target in a trade with the Marlins. Reynolds is so valuable, they can pluck pretty much any two guys in the minors plus another guy in the Marlins top 7-13 range prospects. Pablo has the least control of all major assets the Marlins could trade, and will cost more than anyone but Sandy and Rogers. This is terrible. The Pirates will have no interest in him. I almost put this # 2, but financial analysis is a deeper dive than core baseball stats so the triples won the bad take.

4 - Saying JJ Bleday restored his prospect stock by having a nice AFL  - NO. Encouraging, but small sample size. Do it for 3 months in AA. Small plate appearance blips do not tell us complete stories. This is why this is a bad take.

5 - Then immediately saying you can sell high on JJ Bleday - who has not restored his prospect stock and is unarguably not re-ranked in top 100 lists to date, so how can you sell high on a guy who has lost his prospect statute since drafted? This is not selling high - trading him now is selling him LOW without knowing if the AFL hot streak is real or not. Or, you are so low on Bleday and think he sucks, that any good news (e.g., AFL) means sell him, and then at that point, this goes back around to why are you not seeing the AFL streak is real? And do you think all other teams are stupid? If Bleday has "restored" his prospect stock, he is virtually untouchable or the # 1 piece in a deal for a center fielder. More than likely, he's a HOLD until there is more information. He's an ideal third player in a deal for the Pirates (who will try and sneak him in for upside), meaning that's likely a very bad deal for the Marlins (absent packages both ways, etc.). 

6 - Suggesting one "may not like seeing these names discussed as trade chips." No - anyone with a clue knows Reynolds (or any other major superstar bat) will cost two major centerpieces from the farm. The footnote here is, this could be uncomfortable versus they could just spend $50m bucks, run a bottom 12 payroll, and keep all the farm together and reassess at the deadline. But this goes into a different rabbit hole of being uncomfortable they are cheap to a fault. No one should be uncomfortable moving prospects for an all star centerpiece bat.

7 - And following that, not mentioning Eury and Watson, because THAT is the "starts to get uncomfortable" part about getting Reynolds in a trade. He likely gets at least 1 of them, maybe both. And at that point, the organization has to think hard about can they immediately extend Reynolds for 6 years of service time, can he stay in CF for 4+ years (not the best defender, etc.), and how good are Watson and Eury going to be compared to that. A case can be made Reynolds is worth it, but you're now playing with fire as this is a bigger package than Yelich got (and as mentioned, Reynolds is not as good as Yelich).

8 - Caring about trading Max Meyer (who has major reliever risk), versus Cabrera, Eder (massive injury risk!), and Sixto (also reliever risk and conditioning/injury risk!). Who cares which one or two you trade in a package if you can get Bryan Reynolds (who is awesome). The Marlins still have Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Elisier, and two other of these guys in this hypothetical. They are good here. They have plenty of arms, the names don't matter.

9 - Using ESPN versus FG WAR calculations. Use Fangraphs. This is a personal quib, but I find it more reasonable how they calculate things and are are open to change/transparent about calculations. Ultimately, 1-8 make me angry, this one not so much.

 

We can end on a positive - the last sentence is: There are so many exciting opportunities out there for the Fish to finish upgrading for 2022!

This is TRUE. Let's get excited to see how they start operating as a real team or blow it. As said above, Do they have the gravitas?

2 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

You can share it here all you want, the people on here know what it is but many other people see those articles on Twitter and other places and share them and quote them and reference them as if they have any value. 

You inspired me

2 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

I believe everyone here knows that's something written by somebody not professional baseball journalist and it's not a big deal to share it when nothing is available in a lockout …

Fuck that, they are passing themselves off as professional baseball journalists though tbh. 

6 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

It's a very, very, bad article. But let's use this as an opportunity to rank the bad takes because that's all there is to do here and we can use this as a learning experience:

1 - Reynolds is BETTER than Yelich - WUUUUUUUUUUUUT? Yelich was coming off multiple years of performance (making him safer), younger, a better defender for a higher floor, and controlled for more years at the time of trade. This take is just as awful as the product of the Yelich trade. 

2 - Who in the actual fuck gives a shit about leading the league in triples? Why is this emphasized? What does this suggest? I struggled whether to put this 2-8 on the bad takes list (#1 is really hard to overlook), and this is minor so who cares, but this is such a fundamental problem with people in the "media" emphasizing stats that don't matter, it needs to be on the higher end of the list. Who cares at all about this? Reynolds is fantastic and a triples counting stat does nothing to tell us if he is good or not. He could hit none next year and be awesome.

3 - Pablo Lopez being a potential trade fit because he has 3 years of control and is cheaper than Reynolds - For a team not close to contending, why do the Pirates want a centerpiece with LESS team control than Reynolds? Pablo is literally THE WORST pitcher in the organization for the Pirates to target in a trade with the Marlins. Reynolds is so valuable, they can pluck pretty much any two guys in the minors plus another guy in the Marlins top 7-13 range prospects. Pablo has the least control of all major assets the Marlins could trade, and will cost more than anyone but Sandy and Rogers. This is terrible. The Pirates will have no interest in him. I almost put this # 2, but financial analysis is a deeper dive than core baseball stats so the triples won the bad take.

4 - Saying JJ Bleday restored his prospect stock by having a nice AFL  - NO. Encouraging, but small sample size. Do it for 3 months in AA. Small plate appearance blips do not tell us complete stories. This is why this is a bad take.

5 - Then immediately saying you can sell high on JJ Bleday - who has not restored his prospect stock and is unarguably not re-ranked in top 100 lists to date, so how can you sell high on a guy who has lost his prospect statute since drafted? This is not selling high - trading him now is selling him LOW without knowing if the AFL hot streak is real or not. Or, you are so low on Bleday and think he sucks, that any good news (e.g., AFL) means sell him, and then at that point, this goes back around to why are you not seeing the AFL streak is real? And do you think all other teams are stupid? If Bleday has "restored" his prospect stock, he is virtually untouchable or the # 1 piece in a deal for a center fielder. More than likely, he's a HOLD until there is more information. He's an ideal third player in a deal for the Pirates (who will try and sneak him in for upside), meaning that's likely a very bad deal for the Marlins (absent packages both ways, etc.). 

6 - Suggesting one "may not like seeing these names discussed as trade chips." No - anyone with a clue knows Reynolds (or any other major superstar bat) will cost two major centerpieces from the farm. The footnote here is, this could be uncomfortable versus they could just spend $50m bucks, run a bottom 12 payroll, and keep all the farm together and reassess at the deadline. But this goes into a different rabbit hole of being uncomfortable they are cheap to a fault. No one should be uncomfortable moving prospects for an all star centerpiece bat.

7 - And following that, not mentioning Eury and Watson, because THAT is the "starts to get uncomfortable" part about getting Reynolds in a trade. He likely gets at least 1 of them, maybe both. And at that point, the organization has to think hard about can they immediately extend Reynolds for 6 years of service time, can he stay in CF for 4+ years (not the best defender, etc.), and how good are Watson and Eury going to be compared to that. A case can be made Reynolds is worth it, but you're now playing with fire as this is a bigger package than Yelich got (and as mentioned, Reynolds is not as good as Yelich).

8 - Caring about trading Max Meyer (who has major reliever risk), versus Cabrera, Eder (massive injury risk!), and Sixto (also reliever risk and conditioning/injury risk!). Who cares which one or two you trade in a package if you can get Bryan Reynolds (who is awesome). The Marlins still have Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Luzardo, Elisier, and two other of these guys in this hypothetical. They are good here. They have plenty of arms, the names don't matter.

9 - Using ESPN versus FG WAR calculations. Use Fangraphs. This is a personal quib, but I find it more reasonable how they calculate things and are are open to change/transparent about calculations. Ultimately, 1-8 make me angry, this one not so much.

 

We can end on a positive - the last sentence is: There are so many exciting opportunities out there for the Fish to finish upgrading for 2022!

This is TRUE. Let's get excited to see how they start operating as a real team or blow it. As said above, Do they have the gravitas?

I didnt even take the time to read past the headline thats how fucking idiotic it was!

They are even suggesting Pablo as part of a trade package for Reynolds is amazing.  I'm glad I'm on my second cup of coffee, cause wow.   These jackasses are even more clueless than I thought.

I should start writing again ( I dont really have the time to do it right currently sadly) cause fuck, its like they take the dumbest fans and say, how crazy of an article can you write?  ok sounds great. 

I also didnt even realize ESPN had a WAR calculation, then again I dont use that site for anything stats related.  If they were using baseball refernece WAR fine.  The problem I have with WAR is that there is no actual calculation that is an industry standard, and thats why using WAR as a baseline for anytihng incentive based when it comes to money is so fucking stupid.  Sorry back on topic.  

Reynolds control is better than Yelich's?  Does that count?    I think Reynolds has the ability to be really special.  He wont stay at CF for the long term, but for the next 2-3 years he is probably fine there.   Hopefully one of your lower minors guys can develop himself by then and take care of that problem long term. 

I like Bleday overall.  I think he can still be really good.  If the Pirates want him in a deal, sure.  But he would be in the secondary phase of your prospect haul, not your top primary blue chippers.  If the Pirates say, no Bleday = no Reynolds, well then sure.  Thats an easy call.  The Pirates hold the chips and can virtually extract whatever they want generally speaking from any team.  They have no real reason to move him, but if they are simply blown away..

Thats the thing way too many dont realize.  Acquiring Reynolds WILL HURT.  It will cost a LOT.  It will be PAINFUL.

Service time in this day and age, along with player costs are king these days, more so than when the Marlins stupidly traded Yelich.  So the package for Reynolds will already be so much greater, simply becuase of how the industry is changing.

Its why the decision with Marte was such a critical, fatal error in my estimation.  

25 minutes ago, Das Texan said:

Reynolds control is better than Yelich's?  Does that count? 

The Pirates hold the chips and can virtually extract whatever they want generally speaking from any team.  They have no real reason to move him, but if they are simply blown away.

Its why the decision with Marte was such a critical, fatal error in my estimation.  

To avoid a longer thread than needed, just parsing out 3 things as I generally agree with the rest.

Reynolds has 4 years of control right now; at the time of trade Yelich was locked in for 5 (4+ an option). So at time of trade, Yelich had another (non-guaranteed) year and was younger. There is just no level of analysis, absent potentially inflation in acquiring players now versus 4 years ago, that suggests Reynolds is more valuable then Yelich.

Yes, the Pirates hold all the chips. I just want to hammer this home. They would have to be blown away. Eury/Watson, Meyer/Cabrera, Bleday/Eder/Burdick/Mack/Fulton, and Nunez/Morisette/Lewis/Cappe floor kind of 4 player package. If I were the Pirates, I'd sign him for 6 years (just as the Marlins did with Sandy). He's their Sandy, and they shouldn't make the same "Yelich" mistake. This is why I think Ketel Marte is more realistic - 3 years of control and he's a year older.

I'm still going to disagree though about Marte being "fatal." There are certainly scenarios where signing him would have been one of the best ideas, but I don't think betting on Luzardo and $50-60m in free agency money versus a 33-36 year old, relatively speed dependent CF with a very high BABIP, is a bad idea. I love the guy as a player, but I'm fearful for years 3 and 4 from now. At the end of the day, I'd take Luzardo and Avisail over him as the money is basically a wash at that point. If Garcia is a solid 2.5+ WAR player, and Luzardo does anything, the Marlins likely "win" this either or its close to a push. Maybe I'm wrong and Marte has a 3-4 year old later career peak though. That being said, they still REALLY need a CF but I'm not going to get "see ya ever franchise" made until it's opening day. They know they need one. Something will be coming.

1 hour ago, MarlinsLou said:

Using ESPN versus FG WAR calculations.

They actually used ESPN WAR???

Guess we won't be including Guzman in any deals...lol

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/giants-sign-jorge-guzman-minors.html

9 hours ago, CyggyMarlin said:

Guess we won't be including Guzman in any deals...lol

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/giants-sign-jorge-guzman-minors.html

I don't think he has any value.