6 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

Best GM in baseball!

 

Some impeccable photoshop work on that.

1 hour ago, SilverBullet said:

Geez.

Also this morning on local sports radio... "The Heat won... and that's all for sports!"

No mention of the Marlins defeating the great Jacob deGrom and adding the best available bat at the trade deadline while holding a playoff spot with just 30 games to go. An amazing day for the Marlins gets ZERO news coverage? I know this team has done A LOT to screw over the fan base but that doesn't mean the media should purposely ignore them in their reports. They're still a professional sports team here.

Maybe we should write them

47 minutes ago, QbanCastillo said:

We can trade one of those ball-boys out by left field for Dugger, and that's being generous.

Hahaha. Dugger is still here and Jesus Tinoco got DFA. 

 

Probably Billy the Marlin would give the Marlins a better shot on the mound then  Dugger. 😂

So does Griffin Conine rank on our Top 30 mlb.com prospects... and if so, where?

21 minutes ago, CyggyMarlin said:

So does Griffin Conine rank on our Top 30 mlb.com prospects... and if so, where?

Probably at 30 which is not bad.

27 minutes ago, CyggyMarlin said:

So does Griffin Conine rank on our Top 30 mlb.com prospects... and if so, where?

Just below Justin Twine.

1 minute ago, SilverBullet said:

Just below Justin Twine.

He was released, please pay attention

4 minutes ago, SonOfJack said:

He was released, please pay attention

He's still on my top prospect list. I refuse to remove him.

Hey guys I found the idiot...

On 8/31/2020 at 11:55 PM, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

It can definitely be frustrating when these guys aren't hitting, but you gotta remember this is the Yankees way. They go after all sorts of big power, high upside guys, and some turn into Greg Bird (not much) and some turn into Luke Voit (thunder boy).

Look it at it another way: Would you rather have 10 lottery tickets that are guaranteed to make $2 each, or 10 lottery tickets that have a 50% of being with $2 and a 10% chance to be worth $100? On average, those second tickets are worth $11 each, even though there's a very real likelihood the first 5 you open are all worth $0.

This is exactly right. But keep in mind the 10 lottery tickets that are guaranteed to make $2 also have a non-zero chance of being worth $100. With this little caveat it changes the calculus. 

By taking on the higher chance of getting $100 you are also taking on a non-zero chance of getting nothing. Yes, this is the worst possible outcome, but this isn't a possible outcome by taking the lower payout. 

I, as a marlins fan, understand that they have thought about the bet they have made, and that they believe in the law of large numbers. And that unlike in the Loria years they are sticking to that plan long term. I just personally find it stressful to gamble this way. Again, because of the non-zero chance of coming away with nothing.

Just spit-balling here. But let's say the team anticipates not spending $20M+ annually on individual free agents

In that case, high-risk/high-reward prospects may be their best chance to get 4+ WAR players. And teams need those guys to make the jump to championship contention. A team full of 2-WAR guys (i.e. average starters) won't get you much beyond .500 typically.

Edited September 3, 20206 yr by mystikol87

On 9/1/2020 at 4:38 PM, SilverBullet said:

Just below Justin Twine.

Where is Kolek?

12 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

Just spit-balling here. But let's say the team anticipates not spending $20M+ annually on individual free agents

In that case, high-risk/high-reward prospects may be their best chance to get 4+ WAR players. And teams need those guys to make the jump to championship contention. A team full of 2-WAR guys (i.e. average starters) won't get you much beyond .500 typically.

I think a team of 2 WAR players will absolutely get you into the playoffs, but the problem is that with the volatility of a single season, a good third of the 2 WAR guys might play like 0 WAR or get hurt (while, granted, a few play above 2 WAR). So this is where the value of them 6 WAR boys comes in. If they suffer a -2 WAR season of volatility, you're still up 4 WAR.

I believe the As had a 2 WAR team a few years back and stormed into the playoffs, but they fizzled out the following year on account of a few of those fellers regressing. But folks like Arenado, deGrom, Harper, Trout -- the reliable 6 WAR types -- still give you 4 WAR in their bad years. The trick is still being able to surround them with 2 WAR guys on the cheap (something all 4 of those guys haven't had).

9 hours ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

I think a team of 2 WAR players will absolutely get you into the playoffs, but the problem is that with the volatility of a single season, a good third of the 2 WAR guys might play like 0 WAR or get hurt (while, granted, a few play above 2 WAR). So this is where the value of them 6 WAR boys comes in. If they suffer a -2 WAR season of volatility, you're still up 4 WAR.

I believe the As had a 2 WAR team a few years back and stormed into the playoffs, but they fizzled out the following year on account of a few of those fellers regressing. But folks like Arenado, deGrom, Harper, Trout -- the reliable 6 WAR types -- still give you 4 WAR in their bad years. The trick is still being able to surround them with 2 WAR guys on the cheap (something all 4 of those guys haven't had).

A team of 2 WAR players rarely if ever gets you into the playoffs, by my calculation.

BASELINE WAR: 52 wins for a team full of replacement players, ie 0 WAR. https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2012/08/the-relationship-between-war-and-team-wins/

Say:

- 8 position players = 16 WAR

- 5 starting pitchers = 10 WAR

- 8 bullpen pitchers = 4 WAR

- 4 Bench position players = 2 WAR

52 + 16 + 10 + 4 + 2 = 84 wins

84 wins has made the playoffs like 6 times ever.

On 9/1/2020 at 5:11 PM, CyggyMarlin said:

So does Griffin Conine rank on our Top 30 mlb.com prospects... and if so, where?

 

1 hour ago, SonOfJack said:

 

what does the marlins prospects have to do with wearing a mask?

1 hour ago, SilverBullet said:

what does the marlins prospects have to do with wearing a mask?

Cause the Marlins systems is SICK.

16 minutes ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

Cause the Marlins systems is SICK.

3 hours ago, Photo-Realistic Billy said:

Cause the Marlins systems is SICK.

We've gone viral

Toronto fans seem pretty annoyed with Villar. I'm still dumbfounded that a guy so talented can play like such shit. 

Just now, SilverBullet said:

Toronto fans seem pretty annoyed with Villar. I'm still dumbfounded that a guy so talented can play like such shit. 

Baltimore dumped him for a reason I guess