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Hot Stove (2021-2022 offseason)

Featured Replies

2 minutes ago, Entendu said:

Did he mention anything about how close any of this is... Seems like nothing is close

I heard it as no but you also can never tell because they're definitely still trying. 

He did say within a week we're probably already talking about them doing something and said we'd be happy. 

He's confident good things are still coming but says the frustration is warranted because they haven't executed anything yet. 

Also, said this wasn't an excuse but if they had made all the same moves but had gotten Stallings and Wendle within the last week the frustration wouldn't be there because you would know that they're working so the timing of things is also probably making things seem worse than they are. 

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27 minutes ago, Michael said:

Also said FO has been completely honest with him outside of Sixto's status.

Why can't be honest with Sixto's stuff ? Sixto got the nude pics of Sherman ?

3 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Why can't be honest with Sixto's stuff ? Sixto got the nude pics of Sherman ?

Could be they wanted to keep his value up in case of a trade but even then, physical examination would have wiped out any trade with him in it.

My guess is the FO didn't want to be embarrassed and were hopeful whatever he was going through were just minor setbacks that would get corrected quickly so they didn't feel the need to alarm anyone.

12 minutes ago, Michael said:

Could be they wanted to keep his value up in case of a trade but even then, physical examination would have wiped out any trade with him in it.

Also, teams and players couldn't communicate during the lockout.  Maybe they were unaware of a setback until the lockout was over?

I'd rather try and pry Kyle Lewis away from Seattle for a more reasonable prospect return than bet the farm on Reynolds. They have have a full outfield without him already and Julio Rodriguez on his way.  They have a good outfield situation. Also, they could use some pitching which we have plenty of.  

I think Reynolds is a nice player but not a superstar, and I don't want to pay a superstar premium in talent for him.

There has to be an out of the box solution here somewhere.  Id rather they over spend money than prospects 

And just like that, several hypothetical targets lou and others have mentioned have either been signed (Duffy/Tepera) or are rumored to be connected to other clubs (Braves interested in Soler, teams looking at Mullins, etc).

Options are coming off the board FAST, and the Marlins continue to do NOTHING as of yet.  Hope is fading, and time is running out.

The usual "we tried, but couldn't get what we wanted at our asking price" line will NOT work this year, and they don't seem to understand that.

There's still time to save this, but that time is dwindling.

 

32 minutes ago, Rydawg said:

I'd rather try and pry Kyle Lewis away from Seattle for a more reasonable prospect return than bet the farm on Reynolds. They have have a full outfield without him already and Julio Rodriguez on his way.  They have a good outfield situation. Also, they could use some pitching which we have plenty of.  

I think Reynolds is a nice player but not a superstar, and I don't want to pay a superstar premium in talent for him.

There has to be an out of the box solution here somewhere.  Id rather they over spend money than prospects 

Reynolds >>> Lewis. Take a look at Bryan Reynolds baseball savant page, which way he’s trending, what his profile looks like over the next 3-5 years and tell me that’s not a “super star”. 

 

Edit: no interest in getting into semantics about what constitutes a superstar or not. What I know is this is a hitter with a tremendous approach, is going to hit .280-300 with a 900ish ops and play great defense in CF. If that’s not a superstar, it’s pretty damn close. Put him in a yankee uniform and his brand looks much different 

Edited by marlins_09

8 hours ago, Michael said:

"It's time for the team to stop worrying about five years down the road."

Yep!

Yeah. This cycle of looking to the future needs to end. We have a big league squad that is close to contention. Time to trade some prized prospects for a guy who can help now. It isn’t like Reynolds is a rental either, he would be here for years.

The farm can be rebuilt even if it was damaged. Meanwhile we can be winning in the bigs which is supposed to be the ultimate goal anyway. 

And like @hovertical said in another thread, if they refuse to trade prospects -- they NEED to sign productive free agents. Doing neither isn't an option.

2 hours ago, SonOfJack said:

Yeah. This cycle of looking to the future needs to end. We have a big league squad that is close to contention. Time to trade some prized prospects for a guy who can help now. It isn’t like Reynolds is a rental either, he would be here for years.

The farm can be rebuilt even if it was damaged. Meanwhile we can be winning in the bigs which is supposed to be the ultimate goal anyway. 

And like @hovertical said in another thread, if they refuse to trade prospects -- they NEED to sign productive free agents. Doing neither isn't an option.

What I don't get is the concept of a farm being damaged. The farm is a pipeline. If you have years of control at the MLB level, who cares what the farm looks like today. 1-2 IFA and draft cycles can fix things quickly. Controlled talent should be the barometer for them.

Basically, they can field this INTERNALLY for 2/3 seasons so let's deal with problems in 2024/2025. This satisfies the years of control thing. It's important to note they can always spend on top of this.

C - Stallings and maybe Fortes, Jackson, Henry, Astudillo, and Banfield work out
1B/DH - Cooper, Lewin
2B - Jazz and maybe Isan, Morisette, Devers, or Nunez work out
SS - _______ (But you have Rojas and Wendle for 2 years), and maybe Devers or Nunez works out
3B - _______ (But you have Anderson and Wendle for 2 years), and maybe Isan works out
CF - ________, and maybe Harrison works out
Corner OF/DH - Sanchez, Garcia, Bleday, Burdick, and maybe DLC, Jerar, Conine, and Harrison work out
SP - Sandy, Rogers, Pablo, Hernandez, Luzardo, Cabrera, Meyer, Sixto, Eder, and maybe Eury is a fast riser, and still have Garrett, Neidert, and Poteet
RP - Bender, Pop, and maybe there is a trickle down from above, as well as Okert, Head, Holloway, McCambley, Velez, and other emerging arms

The quick assessment here is:

Great shape - SP, RP, Corner OF, 2B (Really good pitching and corner OF pipeline, and I am a Jazz believer and think the others will be backup types)
Alright shape - C, SS, 3B (solid veterans, definitely need someone in farm to emerge but there is major hope with Mack, Watson, Salas, etc.)
Skeptical shape - 1B/DH (could work with OF trickle downs for DH, but a longterm bat would be preferred. Especially who can play some 1B)
Bad Shape - Nothing
Atrocious, Worst in baseball shape - CF (duh, and this may be generous to only say atrocious)

What are the top prospects here not reflected above..... Watson, Salas, Mack, Fulton, Cappe, Lewis, Mesa Jr., others who emerge, and.... 2022 # 1, 2023 # 1, 2024 #1, and other later round gems plus new IFA signings. So they can park all of these guys in the minors for TWO TO THREE FULL SEASONS... meaning the farm system is going to be loaded because these guys can't even crack the roster.

So there isn't even a farm rebuilding here when you do:

Trade two major arms from the bolds above
Trade Bleday or Burdick (even Sanchez)
Get a CF and more for them. That's a healthy AF 3-1 trade package, and they can lop in guys outside top 15 of the farm who are still pretty good prospects

Sign a mashing 1B/DH, preferably who can play some 1B in case Cooper/Lewin are terrible but can settle for a straight bat

Sign a bullpen arm, preferably a lefty but anyone works. If Pablo moved, an innings eater to bridge to Cabrera/Meyer

You do that, you are kicking the can to 2025 easily. What team can say that? 3 years of MLB control for basically the entire roster? Maybe you need a stop-gap Stallings/Rojas/Wendle type at C/SS/3B and that may be it to bridge to Watson/Salas/Mack/others.

 

Nothing here is impacting the concept of DEPTH doing that type of prospect trade and spending an extra $20-25m on the team for a DH and RP.

The MLB team is loaded with years and years of control. Let's say they don't trade Eury... the 2026 rotation could be Sandy, Rogers, Eury, Luzardo/Eder/Fulton, and Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto very very easily. That's not adding a SP for 5 seasons. That is INSANE. Five seasons! The farm is still deep enough (and maybe VERY deep depending on 22/23 IFA and drafts) - and if we're assessing SS and 3B as future concerns your top two hitters are...... Watson and Salas. As well as you can do worse than Mack as a prospect right now and they seem to draft a catcher in the 2nd/3rd round every year or so (a good draft policy).

Maybe the hold up here is everyone wants Watson and that's the hard line. And yes I know they said that with Eury also, so maybe that's the second problem. I just see no scenario they can't turn two of those SP and Burdick/Bleday into Reynolds, Laureano, Mullins, etc., or turn Pablo into a Brandon Marsh type (and then we ADD prospects as a secondary piece there). These are great player packages waiting to happen.... just like Brinson, Harrison, and Isan.

There is something really really really wrong with the Marlins players, or the front office's idea of value and team building, if you look at this depth chart and think you have longterm issues. You are set up for tremendous success with 1 major trade on depth you can afford to move and spending on 2 medium free agents right now....... And if you put on your big boy (or girl) pants, how about go to - gasp - 17th lowest in payroll and drop Correa on top of this. Now you actually have a scary baseball team in 3 weeks.

 

TLDR - They are jerks if they think they need to preserve the farm as any trade target/FA have years of control so they'll have years to figure out future problems. There is plenty of depth everywhere (as well as money even when crying poor).

1 minute ago, MarlinsLou said:

What I don't get is the concept of a farm being damaged.

Just to clarify, if you're referring to this, Mish just threw one line and used the word "crush" the farm but he didn't go further than that so I don't think he meant debilitating the whole farm as much as just pointing out that they'd have to lose maybe 2 of their top prospects. He did say he thinks it should still be done so I wouldn't think he meant the entire system goes to shit.

It's also possible the guy who wanted to really preserve/hoard the farm was Jeter more than Sherman especially if we believe the rumors that Jeter wanted more money in free agency and less interest in big trades.

If Sherman has his way I would think he prefers trades more than reckless free agency.

Just now, SilverBullet said:

It's also possible the guy who wanted to really preserve/hoard the farm was Jeter more than Sherman especially if we believe the rumors that Jeter wanted more money in free agency and less interest in big trades.

If Sherman has his way I would think he prefers trades more than reckless free agency.

Well since Jeter is gone, if things don't start to change, we'll know he wasn't the issue.

17 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

I think he's possible but might be seen as a backup plan or a complimentary piece. I think they know he's not the big get they need.

But that's the thing here. Let's say you DFA Aguilar - payroll is now call it $55m

Add Soler and Kiermaier (nominal trade, absorb all salary) - we're probably at $77m . Kiermaier had a 2.5 WAR last year, and Soler (if he is .900 OPS soler) is a 3 WAR player (2019, post-2021). The prospect horde still exists, Pablo wasn't traded, and then sign Kenley on top of this (pay someone a prospect to take Bass off hand).... and you are south of $90m. With every prospect. 

If there is skepticism about the young arms/Jazz/Sanchez breaking out.... you just adequately kicked the can to June/July where you control the trade market as you can trade MULTIPLE starting pitchers if everything cuts right.

Will we be happy opening day? No - BUT - I'm not angry as I see the actual development strategy and let's buy guys in the summer.

8 minutes ago, SilverBullet said:

Just to clarify, if you're referring to this, Mish just threw one line and used the word "crush" the farm but he didn't go further than that so I don't think he meant debilitating the whole farm as much as just pointing out that they'd have to lose maybe 2 of their top prospects. He did say he thinks it should still be done so I wouldn't think he meant the entire system goes to shit.

Sure - that's the thing. Farm system depth is irrelevant. Team depth is all that matters. We should not be thinking of things in terms of farm depth at all.

One cannot crush team depth getting Reynolds or Laureano in any scenario - these guys are 4+ WAR players, 27 years old, 3-4 years of control. The only crushing that happens is other teams once the Marlins get their prospect breakouts. Sandy happened. Rogers happened. Reynolds/Laureano adds a third stud. They have 6-8 dart throws left for monsters (Jazz, Sanchez, Bleday, Luzardo, insert all SP here), and a solid core around them (Garica, Stallings, Rojas, Wendle, Anderson, Cooper, Hernandez, etc.). Plus bottom 7-8 payroll to add if they ever stop being egregiously cheap.

 

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