Out of the Past

I'm assuming JJ's agent is not retarded and will use the most favorable comps to make his case.

According to something called "AccuScore" we have an 18.0% chance to win the division and a 3.6% chance to win the WC. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ArvsyN4p5Wjwq0SDcqHkri0h0bYF?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffodds062109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

We've being fortunate that a few of his blow-ups were in three-run save opportunities so he could screw-up and still not blow the game.

I skipped through most of your post because it was too long and was not relevant to the issue on hand... JJ's 2010 salary. It seems to me the comment about how JJ's 2010 salary will be based almost exclusively on his '09 season was not understood.

Article: http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?Itemid=41&id=490&option=com_content&task=view

Last year or maybe two years ago I read an article that said that in a player's first arbitration year they look at both his career and his last season but in each subsequent arbitration year (such as JJ next season) they look primarily at his last season. So when he goes to arby this winter his CY type season will pretty much determine his salary and his injured plagued '07 and '08 seasons wont hurt him much. He can compare himself with Zambrano and will make a lot of money... upwards of $7 million.

I'm surprised no one has blamed Fredi Gonzalez on this thread. It was clearly the idiot's fault. On the TV you could clearly see him saying "f*** me" to himself. It could be his fault or Coglan's or De Aza's but as usual our beat reporters were too lazy or scared to look into it.

I bet the Marlins would like a do-over from when Girardi sent JJ back out his rookie year after the 45 minute rain delay. Cock sucker. I dunno, man. JJ wasn't throwing 98 before the arm surgery... Can you imagine a guy that's not any good having TJ surgery to see if he gets better.

If the goal was to select the most deserving players, which it's not, then the voting would begin until a week or two before the game. That the voting begins a month or so into the season is ridiculous.

What are the chances the Marlins give him a long term deal and, assuming JJ remains consistent the rest of the season, what would be his estimated salary for next season? My guess is he could pull-off $7.5 million next year. I don't like the chances of a long-term deal.

The only change I think is necessary is that EVERY team's payroll should exceed the amount of money that team receives in revenue sharing/luxury tax. Well said. But it will never happen.

Last year the Phillies went 79-0 when leading at the start off the 9th. This year they're 28-6 on those games. It's a good thing their closers, Lidge and Madson, have both struggled closing games.

If we are to make the playoffs this year, do u think it will be via the Wildcard or by winning the East? The East. It's the weakest division in baseball.

According to UZR/150 he's 22nd out of 29 LF with 250+ innings. Pretty bad but has improved.

Peter Gammons is so enamored with Admin Beinfest that anything he writes about the Marlins is best ignored but today he outdid himself. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4273173&name=gammons_peter Speaking of the A's, Marlins catcher John Baker keeps being asked who's going to play him in the forthcoming "Moneyball" movie based on Michael Lewis' best seller about Billy Beane and the 2002 A's, in which Brad Pitt will play Beane. Baker was, along with Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher and Mark Teahen, part of the Moneyball Draft. "I've already had one movie credit," Baker, who has developed into a premier defensive catcher, said. "I was in 'Summer Catch.'" To Baker's credit, he admits it. "Summer Catch" ranks as one of the five worst sports movies ever made.

His OPS+ is 36th out of 92, not out of 240. His OPS+ is exactly the same as the average for corner OFers. I still think he's had a mediocre (at best) career. I don't think one or two good weeks erase the work done over 4+ years. I'm not ready to put him in the Hall of Fame. I'm not willing to ignore stats when I evaluate his accomplishments.

Both Nunez and Ross deserve blame but that error was a killer and changed the whole inning. It turned a bases loaded situation into a runner on first with 3 runs in.

I think how a guy hits depends on his talent and not on the spot of the lineup where he hits. I think most of us typically feel this way. The whole point of this thread the NNYs original post is to suggest that there may be an exception here. Many people subscribe to the batting order theory and pull it out when players they like struggle. Go look at the Maybin threads. Supposedly he struggled because he was hitting 8th. I don't buy it. BTW, Baker OPSed .959 hitting 8th last year.

I think how a guy hits depends on his talent and not on the spot of the lineup where he hits.

Cody Ross ranks 58th out of 68 in UZR among qualified outfielders this year. I know Cody gets praise for his defense, but he has been bad. In RF. He's still been good in CF. UZR/150 disagrees with you. Among CFers with 200+ innings he's ranked 32nd out of 36. +/- has him at 0. Do you have a link?

Does anyone know the record our pitchers should have if the bullpen didn't blow these kind of games? Miller should be like 4-2 now, JJ would have an extra 2 wins same with Volstad. I really wanna know. Not sure of this answers your question but our bullpen has blown 9 save opportunities. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/aggregate?sort=blownSaves&split=0&group=8&season=2009&seasonType=2&statType=pitching&type=exp1

Cody Ross ranks 58th out of 68 in UZR among qualified outfielders this year. I know Cody gets praise for his defense, but he has been bad. In RF. He's still been good in CF. UZR/150 disagrees with you. Among CFers with 200+ innings he's ranked 32nd out of 36.

Hanley only has 6 extra base hits since May 15th.

el penguino prompted me to look through the video. Hope you liked what you saw. I sure did. Pretty girl.

This is how it rates runs based off one "base" aka single first base = .73 runs second base = .76 runs third base = .76 runs ss = .76 runs lf = .56 runs cf = .56 runs rf = .58 runs I'm not sure what UZR goes by but it should be close to that. So is closer for OF, though again we then can't take arm ratings into account for plus/minus because it then isn't based off an average Those numbers seem reasonable. If a fielder's screw-up turns a likely out into a "single" the cost of the screw-up is not only the "single" but also the out he gave away. An out is worth -0.09 runs. So for example a CF drops a fly ball and the hitter ends up at 1B. The cost of the screw-up is the 0.50 for a single plus the 0.09 of the out he gave away. For IF the numbers are probably higher because some of the screw-ups give away potential double plays and a double play is worth 0.37 runs.