A+post and 100% agree Lou

 

 

I would not. He is more volatile (27.5% K rate) and a lot of value is tied to defense, at a position he may not last longterm. Yelich is quite a few notches above him on the spectrum, no offense to Ozuna. Yelich is just that good. I think Yelich and Alvarez if you aren't scared about health are the buyout candidates. I would not do it on Eovaldi, Ozuna, or Koehler.

 

 

I disagree on Ozuna. You can't let his K rate scare you away when everything else says he's a very good ball player. It's that same theory that led to being in this situation with Stanton today. You don't see anyone concerned about Stanton's K rate affecting his long term value, and it's nearly identical to Oz. I also think any concern of him sticking in CF is unwarranted, maybe that would be an issue at the end of the deal when he's 30, but there is zero that points to him not being able to stay in center. And outside of a freak accident last year, Ozuna has proven to be super durable his entire professional career. If I'm Jennings or Hill, my only priority is locking down that entire OF for 5-8 years.

I disagree on Ozuna. You can't let his K rate scare you away when everything else says he's a very good ball player. It's that same theory that led to being in this situation with Stanton today. You don't see anyone concerned about Stanton's K rate affecting his long term value, and it's nearly identical to Oz. I also think any concern of him sticking in CF is unwarranted, maybe that would be an issue at the end of the deal when he's 30, but there is zero that points to him not being able to stay in center. And outside of a freak accident last year, Ozuna has proven to be super durable his entire professional career. If I'm Jennings or Hill, my only priority is locking down that entire OF for 5-8 years.

 

 

It's hard for me to want to commit to a guy, having a good year, with a .316 OBP. Also, Stanton is a different beast and its unfair to compare anyone to him. There are a lot of other reasons besides the K rate why you commit to Stanton, and really no reason to get into them.

 

I'm encouraged by Ozuna's BB rate uptick, his replication of defense in CF, and the power returning after disappearing last year, but at the same time his LD rate is down, hitting more ground balls, that K rate is a HUGE spike, and if we're talking about buying out 6-8 years, I have doubts he remains in CF longterm, and putting him into a corner will drastically impact his defensive value. It's a real concern.

 

He reminds me of a better defensive and less splits-centric version of Marcus Thames or Craig Monroe (look at the Tigers teams 2005-2008 range). Those guys were really solid for Detroit those years, and then the bottom dropped out. May not happen to Ozuna, but on risk assessment, I shy away from guys like this.

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Ozuna a lot. He is much better than I expected already and feel safe keeping him around for awhile. I just don't think it would be wise to throw $40-50 million at him and expect him to keep this level of production up, or get better. Also, if he is real good again next year and starts looking like a legitimate longterm force, they can still do a buyout after 2015 as they'll have him under control for 4 years. He'll hit arbitration as a likely Super 2, but that won't matter much. They could secure 2-3 cheap FA years by guaranteeing the arbitration where it still makes sense for all parties and Marlins have some leverage.

 

Yelich is just a do now, no brainer, future (if not already) star. There is just no point in waiting. I wait on Ozuna. He doesn't scream "foundation" level player to me like Stanton, Fernandez, Yelich, and Alvarez do. He's in that next category with Eovaldi, Heaney, and Cosart. Make them prove it and then give the deal.

 

 

I do agree Yelich is obviously the priority and no-brainer. The big advantage to locking down Ozuna as well is that he is a high risk high reward guy, he can be had long term for much less than Yelich and could very well end up giving us similar production for a fraction. If he fails long term, it's a much smaller loss than a major free agent failure.

 

And again, you keep mentioning Ozuna not sticking at CF. There's no evidence that might happen, it's literally just your opinion. Nothing points to that happening at all, and in my opinion it's nothing more than a fabrication.

I don't think he'll be much less than Yelich. The fact Ozuna will be a super 2 raises his whole numbers across the board. Also, I think the whole "high risk" part is exactly why you don't sign a guy like him to a massive arbitration buyout. Those deals, at least for me, should be reserved for the no brainers/low risk.

 

The scouting community thinks he is a prototypical RF and everyone is pretty surprised at how well he is doing in CF. I have no problem if you think he can stick in CF for 10 years, I just think he moves to a corner in 3-5 years and ends up being where he was projected. I could be wrong, but if we're assessing a buyout, I think some consideration needs to be placed on his defensive value which may radically change.

 

 

The deal has to be Trout-ish or it won't happen.

 

 

 

This seems to be the bottom line and a scary one at that.

If Dongcarlo were a free agent after this season, there is no way his new deal's AAV would be anything less than $28 million. Given that the FO waited so damn long to work on this, he now only has two years of arbitration left. Not like he'll earn peanuts through arb, but his free agent years will obviously be more expensive. I don't see Giancarlo accepting (nor should he) anything less than $25 million per year (AAV) with some kind of decent length, maybe six years minimum. With a six year deal, he can make more money than a continent and still be set up for another massive payday at 30 years old as long as he keeps monstering his dong.

 

 

Power, particularly right handed power, is scarce.

 

Ozuna has it. Yelich not much.

 

Ozuna is a better defensive outfielder.

 

Lock them both up.

 

$90M should do them both.

If Giancarlo gets 28 million, I would venture to say salaries have absolutely jumped the shark.

 

No player should be getting 28 million. That's Cabrera territory.

 

Stanton is not Cabrera.

Trout is locked into $33,250,000 per in the latter part of his current deal. Stanton would 100% get a similar deal and if the Marlins don't come at him with one, they stand no chance really.

 

 

If Giancarlo gets 28 million, I would venture to say salaries have absolutely jumped the shark.

 

No player should be getting 28 million. That's Cabrera territory.

 

Stanton is not Cabrera.

 

 

 

See: Trout, Michael.

I would also note that considering there has been a massive increase in TV money, salaries are going to go up at least somewhat.

 

 

why the hell doesn't MarlinsLou have a job with a MLB FO somewhere? or does he?

 

 

why the hell doesn't MarlinsLou have a job with a MLB FO somewhere? or does he?

 

 

If he does, it sure as hell isn't ours.

 

 

Trout is locked into $33,250,000 per in the latter part of his current deal. Stanton would 100% get a similar deal and if the Marlins don't come at him with one, they stand no chance really.

 

 

 

28MM is cabrera,

30+ is trout.

 

I know we love Giancarlo but is he trout or cabrera? No fucking way in hell.

28MM is cabrera,

30+ is trout.

 

I know we love Giancarlo but is he trout or cabrera? No fucking way in hell.

 

He's actually better than both of them this season

 

 

28MM is cabrera,

30+ is trout.

 

I know we love Giancarlo but is he trout or cabrera? No fucking way in hell.

 

 

Yes Cabrera, no Trout.

28MM is cabrera,

30+ is trout.

 

I know we love Giancarlo but is he trout or cabrera? No fucking way in hell.

 

 

He's a franchise player just like they are.

 

 

28MM is cabrera,

30+ is trout.

I know we love Giancarlo but is he trout or cabrera? No fucking way in hell.

 

 

 

Cant argue on that one. I would be scared to death to pitch to trout or cabrera. On the different side of the coin, i would know how to pitch stanton.

Cant argue on that one. I would be scared to death to pitch to trout or cabrera. On the different side of the coin, i would know how to pitch stanton.

 

Do it.

 

Pitch to Stanton.

 

How do you get him out?

 

 

Do it.

Pitch to Stanton.

How do you get him out?

 

 

 

High or way outside. He will chase.

He's a franchise player just like they are.

 

 

 

He's the beginning of the second tier of franchise players, but he's not in that first tier.

 

I

.

High or way outside. He will chase.

 

 

 

Wrong-

 

 

Outside slider.

 

Low and away.

He's the beginning of the second tier of franchise players, but he's not in that first tier.

I

 

 

 

I think the only players in baseball you take over Stanton are Trout, Kershaw, and McCutchen. I could hear arguments for Tulo, Machado, and Fernandez, but they all have significant injury issues right now so that's hard. He's better than the next batch of guys, like Cabrera, Goldschmidt or Longoria who would also be "first tier" options.

 

He's better than Puig, Abreu, Posey, LuCroy - those are the second tier.

 

He is as first tier as it gets unless you want to put Trout alone at # 1. You can't name 5 better players in baseball to build around for the rest of the decade.