SilverBullet Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 "Five months," he said, "doesn't change five years." Well that's not encouraging. If this is Stanton's thinking then we're screwed. Nothing we do this year or next would change this mindset. Even a solid playoff run this year wouldn't keep him here. He could be raising the NLCS MVP trophy up in the air, and when Ken Rosenthal asks him about this season changing everything he'll say "one championship doesn't change four losing years." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Card Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 If this is Stanton's thinking then we're screwed. Nothing we do this year or next would change this mindset. Even a solid playoff run this year wouldn't keep him here. He could be raising the NLCS MVP trophy up in the air, and when Ken Rosenthal asks him about this season changing everything he'll say "one championship doesn't change four losing years." That's a bit extreme. I agree with him that 5 months of .500 ball doesn't change things. But if it turns into NL Champs? Yea that changes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 So your stance is that he's surely turning everything down until free agency? Just curious. Not necessarily, I just don't think it's a guarantee he'll accept a substantial offer just because we make it. We had that leverage, we no longer do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
graycircle Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I want to sign Stanton, but if he doesn't want to be here, then its OK. I am almost certain that Yelich will not carry the same drama when his time comes. I'm not too sure about Fernandez, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pollythewog Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Well, the drama is all the FO's fault to be fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piazza31 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 Crush on him while we can. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/marlins--playoff-push-not-enough-for-giancarlo-stanton-to-commit-to-future-in-miami-044107815.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter I'd love to know the rest f that "5 months " quote. I have when players thoughts are cut to suit a narrative. That entire quote could even be changed around- something like "5 months doesn't beat 5 years, but the way things are going I can certainly see myself here long term. We just need to keep working on making us better as a team". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverBullet Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 ^ what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edmeister Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I'd love to know the rest f that "5 months " quote. I have when players thoughts are cut to suit a narrative. That entire quote could even be changed around- something like "5 months doesn't beat 5 years, but the way things are going I can certainly see myself here long term. We just need to keep working on making us better as a team". I seriously doubt Stanton would say something as controversial as "5 month doesn't beat 5 years". I would expect something like that from Hanley Ramirez or any dodger for that matter. Nah, Stanton is way to classy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piazza31 Posted August 26, 2014 Share Posted August 26, 2014 I seriously doubt Stanton would say something as controversial as "5 month doesn't beat 5 years". I would expect something like that from Hanley Ramirez or any dodger for that matter. Nah, Stanton is way to classy.. Exactly. Stanton may get pissed, but he's very calculated about what the media reports. That tweet was justified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinsLou Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 And sorry for the consecutive posts but if the marlins don't make a competitive offer for him something needs to be done with this ownership with MLB. There were excuses with the old park including not getting ticket revenue and parking revenue and things like that but what is the excuse now? Don't worry, they'll offer him $150 million and he'll decline. That's competitive and in good faith right? As stated by many for years, the problem was they didn't offer 7/$90 two off seasons ago and realized what they had. Really idiotic. I think a bigger problem is if they don't offer Yelich a 7 year deal prior to the 2016 season. Preferably this offseason, because really why wait. He's a keeper. That's the thing we need to judge this front office on. Stanton they already messed up. Will they do it again? That's how they should be judged or the pattern will keep repeating until Loria leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotcorner Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I don't see any problem whatsoever with what Stanton said. The fact that the team is playing better isn't any sign that Loria has changed course. If they locked up Yelich, went out & got Shields or something in the offseason, maybe an infielder, then they approach Stanton with a megadeal, maybe he really considers it. I'm sure that Stanton's happier this season playing on a team when the games still count, no question. But separate yourself from Marlins fandom for a sec. Last I checked this team is still near last in payroll, and it's a big climb to 3rd. If you're arguably the biggest star in the game just heading into your prime, why in the hell would you want to stay here? I hope like hell somehow this works out but I mean no one will be shocked if it doesn't. And it'll hurt like hell, just like Cabrera. Probably more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pierremvp1 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Don't worry, they'll offer him $150 million and he'll decline. That's competitive and in good faith right? As stated by many for years, the problem was they didn't offer 7/$90 two off seasons ago and realized what they had. Really idiotic. I think a bigger problem is if they don't offer Yelich a 7 year deal prior to the 2016 season. Preferably this offseason, because really why wait. He's a keeper. That's the thing we need to judge this front office on. Stanton they already messed up. Will they do it again? That's how they should be judged or the pattern will keep repeating until Loria leaves. So how much would you have them offer Yelich? 7/90? With retrospect you think maybe just maybe Stanton was worth more than Yelich? The Marlins don't do long-term deals at this stage of a player's career. Why risk the money on a low payroll team? Stanton WAS a player that had the potential to be an exception to that rule. At the time you thought he should sign worthy of a player like Yelich. Stanton had grander ideas and turned out to be the best judge of his talents. . They can still sign him to something in the 5-6, 140/160 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pierremvp1 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Don't worry, they'll offer him $150 million and he'll decline. That's competitive and in good faith right? As stated by many for years, the problem was they didn't offer 7/$90 two off seasons ago and realized what they had. Really idiotic. I think a bigger problem is if they don't offer Yelich a 7 year deal prior to the 2016 season. Preferably this offseason, because really why wait. He's a keeper. That's the thing we need to judge this front office on. Stanton they already messed up. Will they do it again? That's how they should be judged or the pattern will keep repeating until Loria leaves. So how much would you have them offer Yelich? 7/90? With retrospect you think maybe just maybe Stanton was worth more than Yelich? The Marlins don't do long-term deals at this stage of a player's career. Why risk the money on a low payroll team? Stanton WAS a player that had the potential to be an exception to that rule. At the time you thought he should sign worthy of a player like Yelich. Stanton had grander ideas and turned out to be the best judge of his talents. . They can still sign him to something in the 5-6, 140/160 range. So how much would you have them offer Yelich? 7/90? With retrospect you think maybe just maybe Stanton was worth more than Yelich? The Marlins don't do long-term deals at this stage of a player's career. Why risk the money on a low payroll team? Stanton WAS a player that had the potential to be an exception to that rule. At the time you thought he should sign a contract worthy of a player like Yelich. Stanton had grander ideas and turned out to be the best judge of his talents. . They can still sign him to something in the 5-6, 140/160 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 And it'll hurt like hell, just like Cabrera. Probably more. For me, the return might ease the pain. If we get back a really good haul [or as Rosenthal has put it a couple times, a "King's Ransom"], then maaaybe I can be OK with it. I was originally excited about the Cabrera trade because I heard Maybin and Miller were coming our way. Now I know how that turned out, but you just hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 So how much would you have them offer Yelich? 7/90? With retrospect you think maybe just maybe Stanton was worth more than Yelich? The Marlins don't do long-term deals at this stage of a player's career. Why risk the money on a low payroll team? Stanton WAS a player that had the potential to be an exception to that rule. At the time you thought he should sign a contract worthy of a player like Yelich. Stanton had grander ideas and turned out to be the best judge of his talents. . They can still sign him to something in the 5-6, 140/160 range. This off-season for Yelich? 7/65. A year and a half under his belt. Carlos Gonzalez got the 7/80 after his 2010 season which was basically his 3rd year [his first full season, but he had another year and change under his belt]. Not sure why you think Lou was saying 7/90 for Yelich, he didn't say that. But, 7/65. Covers 2015 and 2016, all 3 arb years, and 2 FA years - becomes a free agent after 2021 at age 30, a chance to sign a rather nice deal, and if it's this off-season, for sure, 7/65 would get it done considering his service time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Card Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 This off-season for Yelich? 7/65. A year and a half under his belt. Carlos Gonzalez got the 7/80 after his 2010 season which was basically his 3rd year [his first full season, but he had another year and change under his belt]. Not sure why you think Lou was saying 7/90 for Yelich, he didn't say that. But, 7/65. Covers 2015 and 2016, all 3 arb years, and 2 FA years - becomes a free agent after 2021 at age 30, a chance to sign a rather nice deal, and if it's this off-season, for sure, 7/65 would get it done considering his service time. You wouldn't offer a lesser deal with similar terms for Ozuna as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pierremvp1 Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 This off-season for Yelich? 7/65. A year and a half under his belt. Carlos Gonzalez got the 7/80 after his 2010 season which was basically his 3rd year [his first full season, but he had another year and change under his belt]. Not sure why you think Lou was saying 7/90 for Yelich, he didn't say that. But, 7/65. Covers 2015 and 2016, all 3 arb years, and 2 FA years - becomes a free agent after 2021 at age 30, a chance to sign a rather nice deal, and if it's this off-season, for sure, 7/65 would get it done considering his service time. I don't know what Lou has in his mind. That's why I put a ? after 7/90. Whatever....7/65,7/70 is more realistic...I was making a point that if you're risking 70 million already Stanton(at the time) was clearly worth an extra 2.5/3 million per year more in risk. We see the reward every day. And it's more than 2 1/2-3 million a year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 You wouldn't offer a lesser deal with similar terms for Ozuna as well? I would, but we were talking about Yelich specifically. And Ozuna would have to be about the same considering that he spent time on the MLB DL last year, that ate up some of his service time - so 7 years would buy out three FA years rather than two like Yelich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erick Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Loria sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinsLou Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 They can still sign him to something in the 5-6, 140/160 range. They absolutely can't do that. He is 2 years from free agency and you think he's going to sign an under market deal that takes him through 30-31? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 The deal has to be Trout-ish or it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinsLou Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 This off-season for Yelich? 7/65. A year and a half under his belt. Carlos Gonzalez got the 7/80 after his 2010 season which was basically his 3rd year [his first full season, but he had another year and change under his belt]. Not sure why you think Lou was saying 7/90 for Yelich, he didn't say that. But, 7/65. Covers 2015 and 2016, all 3 arb years, and 2 FA years - becomes a free agent after 2021 at age 30, a chance to sign a rather nice deal, and if it's this off-season, for sure, 7/65 would get it done considering his service time. I think they could do it for less, but I agree with the range you are in. McCutchen after his year 2.5 season (Yelich is 1.5 after this year), signed a 6/$51 deal with a 7th year club option that would make it 7/$65. McCutchen was coming off a 5.4 WAR season, which Yelich is probably not going to get to this year (he probably comes in as a high 4). Marlins also have the leverage here as he is 2 years from payday. I think they could get him around 6/$45+ with a 7th year option to bring it to $60+. Give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 I think they could do it for less, but I agree with the range you are in. McCutchen after his year 2.5 season (Yelich is 1.5 after this year), signed a 6/$51 deal with a 7th year club option that would make it 7/$65. McCutchen was coming off a 5.4 WAR season, which Yelich is probably not going to get to this year (he probably comes in as a high 4). Marlins also have the leverage here as he is 2 years from payday. I think they could get him around 6/$45+ with a 7th year option to bring it to $60+. Give or take. Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinsLou Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 You wouldn't offer a lesser deal with similar terms for Ozuna as well? I would not. He is more volatile (27.5% K rate) and a lot of value is tied to defense, at a position he may not last longterm. Yelich is quite a few notches above him on the spectrum, no offense to Ozuna. Yelich is just that good. I think Yelich and Alvarez if you aren't scared about health are the buyout candidates. I would not do it on Eovaldi, Ozuna, or Koehler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarlinsLou Posted August 27, 2014 Share Posted August 27, 2014 Best case scenario offseason for me is: 1 - Sign James Shields (or other top end SP, which there aren't many of), to an over market 3-4 year deal worth $20 million a season. This is basically the Marlins version of the Jayson Werth contract and have to overpay to get someone 2 - Buyout Yelich for 6 years with a 7th year option 3 - Buyout Alvarez for 5 seasons 4 - Trade Cishek and Eovaldi for young play now infielders 5 - Sign a veteran infield bat at any position for around $3-5 million (payroll is now around $75, i.e. the rumored number) 6 - Dump Jones/Baker/Dunn if it makes sense just to clear salary, and use that to buy anything better at any position 7 - Hope that all of the above convinces Stanton he should sign a small deal year wise because the team is going to be good and keep him here for at least the same time period as Fernandez, which lets him be a free agent in his prime, but guarantees him a boatload of money. 4/$110+ sort of thing which may work (but probably not) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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