This is awesome.. 10 years though? Wow.. I think I'd prefer a 6/120 deal with Prince compared to a 10/200+ deal with Albert but won't complain either way. I'll worry about the later years when that time comes.

I want Albert Pujols and a solid starting rotation

 

 

Touché, good sir.

I've got these disgruntled Cardinals and Mets fans friends. This one Mets fan wrote on my Facebook: "The Marlins are going crazy. Watch this spending spree blow up in their face."

 

Awww, boo hoo!

I've got these disgruntled Cardinals and Mets fans friends. This one Mets fan wrote on my Facebook: "The Marlins are going crazy. Watch this spending spree blow up in their face."

 

Awww, boo hoo!

 

 

Its so funny because after its all said and done, the Yankees will still have double our payroll.

If we sign Pujols...a lineup of Reyes, Bonifacio, Hanley, Pujols, Stanton, Lomo, etc. + our bullpen...

 

And Gaby would obviously be traded for a pitcher.

 

Our starting rotation would be good enough to get into the playoffs, pending we stay fairly healthy.

 

Why would anyone be upset about such a thing happening? Because Volstad would be our #5? Big deal. Most #5's suck, anyway. Including Joe Blanton or whoever the hell the Phillies plan on trotting out there every 5th day this year.

 

 

Because you're trading away the opportunity to field a complete team with no real holes for a star-studded one that, given what you have already and still need, is unnecessary. That, the back-end of the Pujols contract and the fact that they're still not offering NTC's makes me nervous for the future.

 

You do realize that Pujols is worth about 3-5 more wins than Gaby, right?

 

 

Are you denying (or ignoring) the fact that there are obvious holes in our rotation and that there isn't one in 1B?

There is one hole in the rotation.

 

Even if you look at it believing that a #5 like Volstad is fine, you've got an opportunity to make Ricky Nolasco your #5 by either signing 2 SP's or signing 1 and trading for another. It isn't going to cost you a 10 year contract that is obviously going to hurt you at the back-end. This lineup is plenty.

 

Pujols was a 5.1 WAR player last year. Let's just throw that out as an anomaly and assume he'll be the 7.5 player he was the season before. Gaby was a 3.0 WAR player last season.

 

Volstad was 1.3 WAR, Wilson was 5.9, Buehrle was 3.4, Gio was a 3.5, Javy Vazquez was a 3.2

 

In this scenario, we'd lose Javy Vazquez (3.2) and Gaby Sanchez (3.0) and gain Albert Pujols (7.5) and Gio Gonzalez (3.5) for a total gain of ~4.5 WAR

 

Assuming that Pujols makes it impossible for the Marlins to sign anyone else, we could assume ~4.5 WAR gain with Pujols and, at best, no substantial gain if we trade for Gio (that's assuming we can somehow package Gaby in that deal or someone that isn't in our current starting lineup)

 

 

This scenario has us losing Javy Vazquez (3.2) and Chris Volstad (1.3) and gaining 2 SP's. We would gain anywhere from ~2.4 WAR to 4.9 WAR

 

If we didn't sign Pujols and look towards getting 2 SP's - between the players I highlighted above - we'd be looking at at least replacing Javy and making anything from a ~2-5 WAR gain depending on what other pitcher we sign. The longest contract here would probably be a CJ Wilson 6 year deal, which in that case we can assume the gain in WAR would be closer to 5 than to 2.

 

Signing Wilson and signing/trading for another starter on that list would probably cost a tiny bit more than just Pujols (I don't know what Pujols is going to make if he signs with the Marlins)

 

So if we sign Pujols instead of the pitchers and stick to the numbers I presented above, we can have anywhere from a ~.5 WAR net loss to a ~2.1 WAR net gain next season.

 

Is that worth the discrepancies in contract size and Pujols' age to you? This team is still competitive without Pujols if they sign the 2 SP's, and there are less long-term repercussions. I'm not going to do the numbers on the whole team with these scenarios, but I'm willing to bet they'll all get above 90 wins. If the risk is worth a max of 2.1 WAR to you, then that's fine. It isn't to me. Pujols most probably makes us a better team right now, but what about the future? Anibal Sanchez becomes a free agent next year, I believe, and if you look further down the line you'll need to extend LoMo and Stanton. I hate this idea.

 

 

 

 

These are just what I think are the most probable scenarios, and I got lazy with the Pujols WAR projection (but I believe I was generous given the fact that he's been declining in WAR for 3 years.)

#Marlins officials about to meet with Dan Lozano, there is a 10 yr offer on the table #Cardinals

tl;dr

 

Moar Pujols updates pl0x

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman

Marlins prez samson says they'll say more later today. #downtotwo

1 minute ago

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman

 

Loria samson beinfest hill like rock stars thru lobby. 1 way or other, today could be pujols day. #marlins, #cardinals

2 minutes ago

OMFG here we go....

Ken_Rosenthal Ken Rosenthal

 

Sources: #Marlins will not relent completely on no-trade for Pujols Compromise possible. Pujols will want significant deterrent. #MLB

 

Wonder what this could mean.

 

he'd want at least protection for the first 5 years of the contract

Is this cereal?

Joe Capozzi and Clark Spencer are both tweeting that the Marlins are meeting with Dan Lozano right now. Decision could happen in the next few hours, says David Samson.

Is this cereal?

 

 

Yes it is. And not the cheap cereal you find at the bottom in plastic bags. We're talking HoneyNut or FruitLoops here.

entendu - I didn't read through all of it. I'm not sure if you accounted for the fact that we simply do not have Vazquez right now and probably can't get him no matter what.

 

If you're just comparing the overall improvement to this year, then that's fine. But if you're comparing what we could have for next year, I don't think Vazquez belongs in the discussion, because he's a goner regardless.

I have an exam in 10 minutes. Can someone call Loria and tell him to stall for a little bit?

I have an exam in 10 minutes. Can someone call Loria and tell him to stall for a little bit?

 

 

There won't be anything solid for the next few hours/days. You'll just miss out on the tweets that drives us fans nuts and gives us false hope that he really is coming.

@ Entendu

 

You never mentioned the upgrades of Reyes and Bell in your posts which should be mentioned since you're talking about everything we're losing (like Vazquez who in all likelihood isn't signing here, anyway).

 

Also, ever heard of the rich get richer? There's a reason, other than baseball #'s, why the Marlins are doing this. It's actually a business move more than anything else.

 

Even if Pujols declines, the fact that he'll be chasing milestones toward the latter part of his career = more money in Loria's pocket.

 

Right now, who knows how much Loria has in his pocket? For all we know, he can afford this signing and the extensions to come in the near future. I never expected this team to possibly be spending 350 million+ in free agents this offseason, but it's definitely a possibility.

Disgruntled Cardinals fan: "I'm hardly disgruntled (yeah right). If he goes to another team, that's fine with me. Don't you think that if he's as great as everyone's making him seem, he should have been the WS MVP twice now ('06, '11)? Meh...it doesn't matter because the Marlins won't win anyway."

 

Awww, honey. She's just mad because she flew up there for Game Two.

i never thought this was a legit possibility

 

if this gets done, screw it ... i'm picking up a red-orange shirt with that awful logo on it .......

 

a lot of buzz so far about the moves the marlins have made - only negative comment i've heard locally is "so does that mean there will be a 2013 firesale" and "the marlins think aquiring talent will help sell tickets - it's florida - it won't"

 

overall though, people are excited about what the marlins are doing and they aren't even marlins fans

entendu - I didn't read through all of it. I'm not sure if you accounted for the fact that we simply do not have Vazquez right now and probably can't get him no matter what.

 

If you're just comparing the overall improvement to this year, then that's fine. But if you're comparing what we could have for next year, I don't think Vazquez belongs in the discussion, because he's a goner regardless.

 

 

Yea, we lose Vazquez in both my scenarios.

i never thought this was a legit possibility

 

if this gets done, screw it ... i'm picking up a red-orange shirt with that awful logo on it .......

 

a lot of buzz so far about the moves the marlins have made - only negative comment i've heard locally is "so does that mean there will be a 2013 firesale" and "the marlins think aquiring talent will help sell tickets - it's florida - it won't"

 

overall though, people are excited about what the marlins are doing and they aren't even marlins fans

 

 

I said it here too- If we get Pujols, I would stop bitching about that logo and wouldn't care what they wore.

take it for what its worth, but a sales rep said. Loria authorized a $130 mil payroll. now he's a sales rep trying to sell tickets, but we already got our tickets prior to him saying this. So have fun with it, but we'll find out in 2-3 months if its legit or not.

take it for what its worth, but a sales rep said. Loria authorized a $130 mil payroll. now he's a sales rep trying to sell tickets, but we already got our tickets prior to him saying this. So have fun with it, but we'll find out in 2-3 months if its legit or not.

 

 

I would jizz in my pants. Right now.

take it for what its worth, but a sales rep said. Loria authorized a $130 mil payroll. now he's a sales rep trying to sell tickets, but we already got our tickets prior to him saying this. So have fun with it, but we'll find out in 2-3 months if its legit or not.

 

 

I would jizz in my pants. Right now.

 

Too late...

@ Entendu

 

You never mentioned the upgrades of Reyes and Bell in your posts which should be mentioned since you're talking about everything we're losing (like Vazquez who in all likelihood isn't signing here, anyway).

 

Also, ever heard of the rich get richer? There's a reason, other than baseball #'s, why the Marlins are doing this. It's actually a business move more than anything else.

 

Even if Pujols declines, the fact that he'll be chasing milestones toward the latter part of his career = more money in Loria's pocket.

 

Right now, who knows how much Loria has in his pocket? For all we know, he can afford this signing and the extensions to come in the near future. I never expected this team to possibly be spending 350 million+ in free agents this offseason, but it's definitely a possibility.

 

 

There's no reason to include Bell or Reyes. I'm talking about a net gain between the scenarios. Bell and Reyes are constants (so was Vazquez, but I put it in for the sake of following through with the full scenario.)

 

It's a terribly risky move. Nobody really knows how fans are going to react to this, and a bad team hamstrung by bad contracts could make fans lose interest in the team once again. Going the pitching route is much safer because everyone is off the books in 6 years time, and no one is going to be 40 and making 20M (being essentially unmovable.) Star power is nice, but I think they're getting carried away - and the fact that they're not giving NTC's away scares the hell out of me.