This team better do something to keep improving the offense. 

5 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

And this is partially what this is all about - that emphasized text is how you run a business. Teams lose. The Cubs sold out and been relevant for 100 years of losing. We have been battered as a fan base since 1998 except for a very brief period late May 2003-2005 when things were very exciting, and again for a very brief period around the new stadium when we thought things would change.

Throw as a fucking bone. You don't need 9 premium FV45+ or better prospects, including 10 SP with billions of years of control versus moving 3 of them for a star CF.

This is all moot if this is the strategy - wait and see posturing - but we should all be ANGRY they are stopping at third base with Soler/Garcia/Stallings/Wendle and not sending the runner home. Send the runner home! No one will blame you if it doesn't work out. Make an effort! The bar is so low that TRYING to win as the Marlins is GREAT SUCCESS.

Plus, look at regional competition. The Heat are in first and never rebuild because they are brilliant. The Panthers somehow may actually win the Stanley Cup and have a multi year run coming. The Dolphins are doing super fun things and going for it. The Canes signed Mario Cristobal and decided they are going to spend to be good after 20 years. The freaking Canes basketball team is in the Sweet 16. And then Roman Quinn is playing CF half the time with a bottom 6 or 7 payroll and a horde of prospects, some of whom may crack the 2025 roster (in the summer months, maybe). This is the move Marlins? Wait around another year after a 4 year tear down trading 2 MVPs, when every other major team in town is making awesome headline grabbing moves literally in the last 6 months including today?

 

Hopefully they're not trying to compete with who can be worst in the market with Inter Miami....

At least they got punished for spending too much on players.

Edited March 24, 20224 yr by rmc523

3 hours ago, rmc523 said:

Hopefully they're not trying to compete with who can be worst in the market with Inter Miami....

At least they got punished for spending too much on players.

What's going with Inter Miami, how are they worst in the market? I don't follow them at all so genuinely asking. 

9 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

but we should all be ANGRY they are stopping at third base with Soler/Garcia/Stallings/Wendle and not sending the runner home. Send the runner home! No one will blame you if it doesn't work out. Make an effort! The bar is so low that TRYING to win as the Marlins is GREAT SUCCESS.

I swear I will not blame Ng if Reynolds played suck in the Marlins uniform but I swear I will blame her if Marlins played suck without Reynolds on the team. 

12 hours ago, hovertical said:

it's so weird being a Marlins fan and a Dolphins fan.  Ross has never shied away from throwing big contracts out there - they just never seem to work out. Meanwhile Sherman over there literally needs to just trade a couple high end prospects for a CF and he's all. NAH...

One spends tons of money

the other steals tons of money

net result is the same

 

sure does make the offseason a HELLUVA lot more exciting though and to me, it shows he at least wants to win.  Tua has zero excuses this year if he fails. 

that's the thing though is that they actually have laid out some money this time.  That Garcia deal wasn't particularly cheap.  They locked up Sandy.  Now you just gotta part with some prospects.  You stock a great system in order to deal away surplus to fill more immediate needs (ideally).  All those top prospects can't make the team, and most will flame out in some regard anyway.  This is when they're shiny and new and all look like future stars to some other GM.  We know they can just as easily turn into Andrew Miller/Maybin/Brinson.  I like what they did in the Stallings deal for instance. 

I don't even think Watson has to be off the table.  If they get Reynolds that's a really stacked team and not just for 2022.   

5 hours ago, Hotcorner said:

that's the thing though is that they actually have laid out some money this time.  That Garcia deal wasn't particularly cheap.  They locked up Sandy.  Now you just gotta part with some prospects.  You stock a great system in order to deal away surplus to fill more immediate needs (ideally).  All those top prospects can't make the team, and most will flame out in some regard anyway.  This is when they're shiny and new and all look like future stars to some other GM.  We know they can just as easily turn into Andrew Miller/Maybin/Brinson.  I like what they did in the Stallings deal for instance. 

I don't even think Watson has to be off the table.  If they get Reynolds that's a really stacked team and not just for 2022.   

Yep. It's a sliding scale. I think it's pick one from each tier below and depending on who, it's better or worse players for the next tier. I think the bold makes the most sense personally. The furthest away centerpiece SP, not Watson, and who really cares what OF you have to part with as the other ones play LF longterm. Marlins should pick their favorite of Sanchez/Bleday, and offer the other as Burdick is probably a clear third choice there.

Eury/Meyer/Cabrera/Sixto/Eder
Sanchez/Bleday/Burdick
Watson/Salas

If they want Meyer or Cabrera over Eury? So be it.

If it's Watson, and we downgrade to Sixto/Eder and Burdick as a result, so be it.

And if Bednar is involved, add another guy from top 10-20 prospects depending on what is conveyed above. Someone like Fulton, Lewis, or McCambley. And then some throw-ins - Jerar, DLC, etc. I think this makes the most sense for everyone so the Pirates can nab some additional guys for a reliever. There is some pretty big upside in the next tier of Marlins prospects after the clear top 9. Fulton, Mack, Lewis, Nunez, Morisette, Cappe, VMJR, McCambly..... there is value there for sure.

Make them regret saying no, so maybe they'll take it because they don't need to trade a dude with 4 years of control.

Speaking of that, I just glanced at a Pirates board and someone thinks Watson, Eury, Meyer, and Bleday is fair. If that's the kind of thing they want, it's a polite no thanks and call Oakland for Laureano. That being said, that's just a zany fan who doesn't get it. Yelich didn't get that much, and Yelich was better than Reynolds at time of trade. It's 3 centerpieces, and the last one can be a fringe back 100 guy like Salas/Eder/Burdick. Not 4. It's really just a debate of who the first two guys are as the third one (which is likely Salas/Burdick/Eder) we can all live without as-is compared to Reynolds.

Is this team really doomed if they wait until a few months in or the trade deadline, and just see how things shake out? Not ideal, but maybe that's the plan.

I wouldn't hate them if they made a big splash at the deadline. They just need to make sure the team stays in contention through then. That's the risk.

1 minute ago, Entendu said:

Is this team really doomed if they wait until a few months in or the trade deadline, and just see how things shake out? Not ideal, but maybe that's the plan.

Problem for me with this approach, is that the price typically goes UP at the deadline when sellers know that buyers are desperate for a playoff push.

2 minutes ago, Entendu said:

Is this team really doomed if they wait until a few months in or the trade deadline, and just see how things shake out? Not ideal, but maybe that's the plan.

I wouldn't hate them if they made a big splash at the deadline. They just need to make sure the team stays in contention through then. That's the risk.

The problem is with the expansion of the playoffs, there are going to be less teams in sell mode and more in buy mode.  This will cause the price tags to be even higher then.  Also, hypothetically if you acquire a 5+ WAR player you could essentially be down 2.5 to 3 games less in the win column.  That may make a huge difference at that point imo.  If you are going to do something, now is the time to do it.

What's the logic !? starting the season with an incomplete team (without the CF and CL) and hope to be a buyers in the deadline with that team !? is it so easy to be a buyers in the deadline !?

13 minutes ago, knglover said:

The problem is with the expansion of the playoffs, there are going to be less teams in sell mode and more in buy mode.  This will cause the price tags to be even higher then.  Also, hypothetically if you acquire a 5+ WAR player you could essentially be down 2.5 to 3 games less in the win column.  That may make a huge difference at that point imo.  If you are going to do something, now is the time to do it.

This. The Marlins margin of error - especially in this division - is very low, so there is a real benefit of getting Reynolds or Laureano (minus 28 games) now as 2+ theoretical wins April-June helps that margin of error dramatically.

Everyone is controlled so they "could" wait for next year, but this swings back to why are you wasting a year of Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo when they are CHEAP. Aguilar might make more money than those 3 combined if he wins his arb case. That's insane.

Just now, taiwanmarlin said:

What's the logic !? starting the season with an incomplete team (without the CF and CL) and hope to be a buyers in the deadline with that team !? is it so easy to be a buyers in the deadline !?

They don't need a closer anywhere close to center field.

Floro, Bender, Cabrera, Pop, Head, Bleier, Okert, and at the moment Bass if he isn't moved is a good bullpen. They had the 7th best pen last year. These guys can throw, as well as Meyer, Sixto, and others are looming.

It would be nice to get another top end arm there, but it's a luxury upgrade.

This then goes back to...

Reynolds/Bednar
Laureano/Trivino
Hays/Sulser

All three of them are good combos.

11 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

They had the 7th best pen last year.

Except when it mattered.

Should we question Ng's ability to be a GM if she couldn't acquire a CF before the opening day ?

1 hour ago, taiwanmarlin said:

What's the logic !? starting the season with an incomplete team (without the CF and CL) and hope to be a buyers in the deadline with that team !? is it so easy to be a buyers in the deadline !?

They probably believe in the possiblity that the team isn't incomplete and that someone will surprise them. 

I get it. You keep your prospects and fill your needs internally.... but I'm just not sure I have faith in any of the CF options on the roster being a long term option.

I do however think the odds of someone being passable for 3 months are a bit better. It may be OK, but there's still the issue that others have raised: this bet on your roster may cost you more prospects at the deadline, because the ask will go up.

Edited March 24, 20224 yr by Entendu

5 minutes ago, taiwanmarlin said:

Should we question Ng's ability to be a GM if she couldn't acquire a CF before the opening day ?

No. Look at the whole body of work, not just one area.

11 minutes ago, Michael said:

No. Look at the whole body.

1 minute ago, SongInTheAir said:

Good point.

@taiwanmarlin just avert your eyes, no looking at Kim Ng anymore.

On 3/23/2022 at 11:18 AM, hovertical said:

man, ya'll remember when we were tied to Buxton as well? seems like ages ago.  Clearly the Twins are trying to actually WIN as many games as possible though.

Buxton has played 100 games once in his entire career and has a lifetime .248/.299/.461 slash line. I'm glad we didn't pay the cost it would have taken to get him.

57 minutes ago, Valid said:

Buxton has played 100 games once in his entire career and has a lifetime .248/.299/.461 slash line. I'm glad we didn't pay the cost it would have taken to get him.

I can't agree with this. He is a 4+ WAR player per 600 PA for his career, and was over 8+ for 2021. You can also scale him for 5+ in 2019 and 2020 so the last three years, he's been amazing recently. These players are exceptionally hard to find.

He's a much better player than Reynolds when healthy. Yea, a big caveat, but he's a real difference maker. A franchise changer when playing. The year he gets 550 PA, watch the F out. That's the year you win the world series if there is a supporting cast around him. To note, I do think the Marlins have a supporting cast right now and are RIPE to add 1-2 studs to this team to push them over the top. Reynolds/Laureano/Ketel do fall into this category.

That being said, the Twins were smart to keep him. His contract is amazing. He has top 5 player in baseball upside and makes less money than Nick Castellanos. I'd take those risks all day. The reward is insane.

1 hour ago, Entendu said:

They probably believe in the possiblity that the team isn't incomplete and that someone will surprise them. 

I get it. You keep your prospects and fill your needs internally.... but I'm just not sure I have faith in any of the CF options on the roster being a long term option.

I do however think the odds of someone being passable for 3 months are a bit better. It may be OK, but there's still the issue that others have raised: this bet on your roster may cost you more prospects at the deadline, because the ask will go up.

Agree on 3 months sort of - especially with expanded rosters for the 1st of them to hid DeShields/Quinn on the roster for after 6th inning defense once whichever OF gets their last PA.

However, as mentioned above, the margin of error is very low so getting 50 more games out of someone and 2+ more theoretical wins is important. They should add a legitimate CF now, and they'll still have prospects to get a second monster in the summer if things are going great.

3 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Agree on 3 months sort of - especially with expanded rosters for the 1st of them to hid DeShields/Quinn on the roster for after 6th inning defense once whichever OF gets their last PA.

However, as mentioned above, the margin of error is very low so getting 50 more games out of someone and 2+ more theoretical wins is important. They should add a legitimate CF now, and they'll still have prospects to get a second monster in the summer if things are going great.

it will make it even harder to acquire a CF come trading deadline if your target has been absolutely tearing it up all season.  Then you really could be looking at the Pirates demanding Eury, Watson, Bleday+ for someone like Reynolds because there will be a LOT of suitors knocking at that point. 

37 minutes ago, hovertical said:

it will make it even harder to acquire a CF come trading deadline if your target has been absolutely tearing it up all season.  Then you really could be looking at the Pirates demanding Eury, Watson, Bleday+ for someone like Reynolds because there will be a LOT of suitors knocking at that point. 

This works both ways. If Eury, Watson, and Bleday are demolishing, their value could increase also. Especially for Bleday as the scouting community doesn't seem fully behind his AFL. He lights the world on fire for 2 months and he sky rockets. Also, Eder and Sixto are healthier in theory in the summer so less warts on them in a few months for extra pieces.

I don't think Reynolds has much value change. He still has years and years of control which is his main benefit. He doesn't have the power to take another leap forward (so I think), so he has more potential downside to me if he isn't playing at a 4+ WAR pace. The Pirates need to sign him for 6-7 (which can happen at any time before the trade deadline) or trade him IMO. Alternatively, I think guys like Mullins and Hays would increase value if they demolish for 2-3 months so they deflect 1 year wonder criticism. They become a lot more interesting scorching earth for 2 months.

I think they need a CF because they have a low margin of error to contend. It'll be a huge benefit to get someone now. I suspect someone is brought in, even if it's a few month stopgap to reassess in the summer. They can't possibly think Sanchez/Garcia with DeShields on the bench is a good idea. At least get a very superior defensive option. DeShields might be that, but he's 2+ years removed from really displaying some killer defense. Certainly a SSS for 20/21, but still.

1 hour ago, MarlinsLou said:

I can't agree with this. He is a 4+ WAR player per 600 PA for his career, and was over 8+ for 2021. You can also scale him for 5+ in 2019 and 2020 so the last three years, he's been amazing recently. These players are exceptionally hard to find.

He's a much better player than Reynolds when healthy. Yea, a big caveat, but he's a real difference maker. A franchise changer when playing. The year he gets 550 PA, watch the F out. That's the year you win the world series if there is a supporting cast around him. To note, I do think the Marlins have a supporting cast right now and are RIPE to add 1-2 studs to this team to push them over the top. Reynolds/Laureano/Ketel do fall into this category.

That being said, the Twins were smart to keep him. His contract is amazing. He has top 5 player in baseball upside and makes less money than Nick Castellanos. I'd take those risks all day. The reward is insane.

He has been in the league since 2015 and has cracked 100 games once. So that isn't just a "big" caveat; it is an enormous one. There is a reason that contract is amazing: because he can't stay on the field.

Edited March 24, 20224 yr by Valid

33 minutes ago, Valid said:

He has been in the league since 2015 and has cracked 100 games once. So that isn't just a "big" caveat; it is an enormous one. There is a reason that contract is amazing: because he can't stay on the field.

I'd pay 7/$100 for 299 PA of Buxton per year on average for sure. Get a good backup 4th OF, and that's a 3-5+ WAR CF scenario, with 8+ upside if Buxton doesn't get hurt. That's good value. It's all about perspective. You can't find that upside. Healthy Buxton is a $300m+ player over 10+ years. He had the same WAR as Sandy last year in 61 games (254 PA).