9 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

I'd pay 7/$100 for 299 PA of Buxton per year on average for sure. Get a good backup 4th OF, and that's a 3-5+ WAR CF scenario, with 8+ upside if Buxton doesn't get hurt. That's good value. It's all about perspective. You can't find that upside. Healthy Buxton is a $300m+ player over 10+ years. He had the same WAR as Sandy last year in 61 games (254 PA). 

WAR! heh, what is it good for?

19 minutes ago, hovertical said:

WAR! heh, what is it good for?

Well LAD, CHW, SFG, HOU, and TB were top 5 in WAR last year as a team, and they won 106, 93, 107, 95, and 100 games. That is overall team 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. Four division winners, and the one who didn't win the division had the second most wins in the league as somehow SF won 107 games. All playoffs. Sure, Atlanta won the world series -  but they caught fire at the end and had to beat two of those teams (HOU, LAD, and Milwaukee, who would be the "5" missing above was the other). And HOU and LAD beat two other of those teams - SF and CHW.

That's what the Marlins need to do this year. Survive to the summer and catch fire. The CF now versus later builds in a margin of error for this to happen. If they aren't going to spend money to make up ground (and really no impact FA are really left), they have to trade for improvements to get this margin of error.

Atlanta last year is a perfect contending model for them. Not the best team on paper, but a really good one with no perceivable weaknesses. Field a complete team day 1, and if shit happens (Acuna), make smart trades in the summer and catch fire.

 

2 minutes ago, MarlinsLou said:

Well LAD, CHW, SFG, HOU, and TB were top 5 in WAR last year as a team, and they won 106, 93, 107, 95, and 100 games. That is overall team 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. Four division winners, and the one who didn't win the division had the second most wins in the league as somehow SF won 107 games. All playoffs. Sure, Atlanta won the world series -  but they caught fire at the end and had to beat two of those teams (HOU, LAD, and Milwaukee, who would be the "5" missing above was the other). And HOU and LAD beat two other of those teams - SF and CHW.

That's what the Marlins need to do this year. Survive to the summer and catch fire. The CF now versus later builds in a margin of error for this to happen. If they aren't going to spend money to make up ground (and really no impact FA are really left), they have to trade for improvements to get this margin of error.

Atlanta last year is a perfect contending model for them. Not the best team on paper, but a really good one with no perceivable weaknesses. Field a complete team day 1, and if shit happens (Acuna), make smart trades in the summer and catch fire.

His comment went right over your head lol.

 

5 hours ago, Entendu said:

Is this team really doomed if they wait until a few months in or the trade deadline, and just see how things shake out? Not ideal, but maybe that's the plan.

I wouldn't hate them if they made a big splash at the deadline. They just need to make sure the team stays in contention through then. That's the risk.

But the problem is, we may need his extra production just to be in the running, and may not even be in contention by then.

 

14 hours ago, SilverBullet said:

What's going with Inter Miami, how are they worst in the market? I don't follow them at all so genuinely asking. 

 

Well, I'm still new to MLS as well and don't know quite how their payroll stuff, with added wrinkles like "designated players" and things like that.  Apparently they in their inaugural season they overspent on some players that should've gotten a "designated player" tag, and you're limited in what you can spend on those players, so they're now stuck with fines/limitations on spending and drafts as punishment/fallout from that, so that's one limiting factor.
 

So this season, so far they're 0-3-1, and losing to some of the lower end teams.  In the offseason, it seemed like they traded away (or "lent out" guys to international clubs - another factor I don't quite understand) several guys that seemed like the ones that actually contributed on the field, all while retaining ones that didn't, and their record thus far reflects that.

 

I actually haven't been able to watch a game yet this season, as I've been busy when they've been on, or the game hasn't been televised when it is going on.

I replied to their email - got an auto reply that they received my email and the Miami Marlins would review it. 🤣

2 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

Well LAD, CHW, SFG, HOU, and TB were top 5 in WAR last year as a team, and they won 106, 93, 107, 95, and 100 games. That is overall team 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6. Four division winners, and the one who didn't win the division had the second most wins in the league as somehow SF won 107 games. All playoffs. Sure, Atlanta won the world series -  but they caught fire at the end and had to beat two of those teams (HOU, LAD, and Milwaukee, who would be the "5" missing above was the other). And HOU and LAD beat two other of those teams - SF and CHW.

That's what the Marlins need to do this year. Survive to the summer and catch fire. The CF now versus later builds in a margin of error for this to happen. If they aren't going to spend money to make up ground (and really no impact FA are really left), they have to trade for improvements to get this margin of error.

Atlanta last year is a perfect contending model for them. Not the best team on paper, but a really good one with no perceivable weaknesses. Field a complete team day 1, and if shit happens (Acuna), make smart trades in the summer and catch fire.

Well, I say WAR is good for absolutely nothing. Want me to say it again?

Just now, hovertical said:

Well, I say WAR is good for absolutely nothing. Want me to say it again?

2 hours ago, hovertical said:

Well, I say WAR is good for absolutely nothing. Want me to say it again?

It's just impossible this team couldn't acquire any legitimate starting CF in the trade markets before the opening day, right ?

I mean, how could you keep saying you would like to acquire an elite controllable young CF but also keep saying all the top prospects (Eury, Meyer, Watson and Bleday etc.) are unavailable !? 

This team have no big money to sign the big players, I don't know what they can do if they even don't want to SPEND BIG in the trade market. 

Edited March 25, 20224 yr by taiwanmarlin

15 hours ago, MarlinsLou said:

This. The Marlins margin of error - especially in this division - is very low, so there is a real benefit of getting Reynolds or Laureano (minus 28 games) now as 2+ theoretical wins April-June helps that margin of error dramatically.

Everyone is controlled so they "could" wait for next year, but this swings back to why are you wasting a year of Sandy, Rogers, and Pablo when they are CHEAP. Aguilar might make more money than those 3 combined if he wins his arb case. That's insane.

Yes, more teams will be in the race at the deadline, but teams should already be factoring that into their analysis now. Meaning that bottom-half teams probably should be less willing to trade established players, as they’ve got an increased shot to sneak into the playoffs, at which point anything can happen. I wonder if (projected) elite teams are actually pissed about the expanded playoffs lowering their odds of winning the World Series. Like the Dodgers are very likely to make the playoff regardless of whether it’s 8, 10, or 12 teams, so all else equal they should prefer a smaller field. But then we can get into whether there are byes, and expected quality of opponents, and I’m sure a bunch of other smaller nuances.

6 hours ago, mystikol87 said:

Yes, more teams will be in the race at the deadline, but teams should already be factoring that into their analysis now. Meaning that bottom-half teams probably should be less willing to trade established players, as they’ve got an increased shot to sneak into the playoffs, at which point anything can happen. I wonder if (projected) elite teams are actually pissed about the expanded playoffs lowering their odds of winning the World Series. Like the Dodgers are very likely to make the playoff regardless of whether it’s 8, 10, or 12 teams, so all else equal they should prefer a smaller field. But then we can get into whether there are byes, and expected quality of opponents, and I’m sure a bunch of other smaller nuances.

Sure, but Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Baltimore are all bottom 5 teams right now easily and have no chance even if everything goes right. They know it too. Their only incentive to not trade is years of control, so it swings back - gotta make it worth their while. You can sell me Arizona (Ketel) *might* contend if everything goes right as they have some major upside bats and they may end up with 3 above average SP, but not those other 3. They are already dead in the water.

Each has the right CF (Reynolds, Laureano/Pache, Mullins/Hays) and RP (Bednar, Trivino, Sulser) combo to make a trade for a major CF upgrade (or in the case of Pache major prospect) and a well above average reliever.

Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but Starling Marte won’t be playing CF this year. 

2 hours ago, Erick said:

Not sure if it’s been mentioned, but Starling Marte won’t be playing CF this year. 

At least not to start the year is how I understood it.

Seems it just would be an incomplete off-season and an incomplete opening day roster ……

Edited March 25, 20224 yr by taiwanmarlin

MLB Network just had it's Top 10 CFs in baseball list...

Starling was #7, Mullins #4 and Reynolds #3...

Still not thrilled we let Marte go, but trading for Mullins or Reynolds (if possible) is clearly an upgrade if you agree with their rankings

If the Pirates really wants to trade Reynolds for Meyer and Watson, it's the Marlins DON'T want to acquire Reynolds and not the Marlins CAN'T acquire him now …really frustrated. 

It's dereliction of duty if Ng not has hundreds of trade negotiations on going now. 

4 hours ago, taiwanmarlin said:

It's dereliction of duty if Ng not has hundreds of trade negotiations on going now. 

Yeah I think the writing has been on the wall for a bit now. Once you start hearing about the details of the negotiations from reporters and they’re framing them in the past tense it’s pretty safe to say it’s over.
 

We’re definitely looking at a Garcia/Sanchez CF with BA and Wendle platooning between outfield and 3B. 

I am having a hard time not seeing how this going to be anything but bad. 

No bullpen, a defense with a huge hole, and a .220 offense playing the NL east.

Who cares how much pitching they have? They need BA to find his bat, and Cooper to stay healthy...and what...Garcia and Sanchez to tear the cover off the ball? Wendle is our new Berti? But Berti is still here. DLC COULD be something?

This sounds exactly like the pre-season discussion from last year...trading in Dias, Brinson, and Harrison for some other names.

Just feels like pretty much the same team with the same problems...and like last year when they were pretty much the same as 2020 season...just older...well we know the result.

This year they are older and the NL East is filthy.

59 minutes ago, Major-Minor said:

I am having a hard time not seeing how this going to be anything but bad. 

No bullpen, a defense with a huge hole, and a .220 offense playing the NL east.

Who cares how much pitching they have? They need BA to find his bat, and Cooper to stay healthy...and what...Garcia and Sanchez to tear the cover off the ball? Wendle is our new Berti? But Berti is still here. DLC COULD be something?

This sounds exactly like the pre-season discussion from last year...trading in Dias, Brinson, and Harrison for some other names.

Just feels like pretty much the same team with the same problems...and like last year when they were pretty much the same as 2020 season...just older...well we know the result.

This year they are older and the NL East is filthy.

Yep. No arguments here. Fail to properly address any of the glaring issues (some of which issues only exist because of their own doing) and sign some middling players to say they spent and then slog through another sub .500season. no worries though, we'll do the same next year!

1 hour ago, Major-Minor said:

This sounds exactly like the pre-season discussion from last year...trading in Dias, Brinson, and Harrison for some other names.

On some bright side, at least the players we hinge hopes on now are a fair bit better than those three.

Your overall concerns are fair, though. Offense will be boom or bust again. Requires some breakouts and more consistency from Jazz and Sanchez. Requires Avisail to have his "good" years. Cooper's health as you mentioned. Aguilar needs to be a little more consistent. Bullpen ... ugh. Lol.

2 hours ago, Major-Minor said:

I am having a hard time not seeing how this going to be anything but bad. 

No bullpen, a defense with a huge hole, and a .220 offense playing the NL east.

Who cares how much pitching they have? They need BA to find his bat, and Cooper to stay healthy...and what...Garcia and Sanchez to tear the cover off the ball? Wendle is our new Berti? But Berti is still here. DLC COULD be something?

This sounds exactly like the pre-season discussion from last year...trading in Dias, Brinson, and Harrison for some other names.

Just feels like pretty much the same team with the same problems...and like last year when they were pretty much the same as 2020 season...just older...well we know the result.

This year they are older and the NL East is filthy.

 

I agree overall.

 

BUT I do think we're better than last year simply by replacing Diaz/Brinson/Harrison - or at least put it this way - it's going to be hard to be worse than those guys.  I do also think the team in general isn't as bad as last year ended up being, and think we got unlucky with injuries and down years.

 

That said, the problem is, the other teams in the division have continued to make upgrades too, so even if we're better than last year, have we improved enough over their upgrades to make us better overall?  There's also the argument that the NL East is always hyped up as this mega competitive division every year, and then often winds up having only one team that jumps out ahead, with the rest being "meh". 

I agree with that it's their own doing by a lack of making moves, or seemingly unwilling to go over 12M/year for anyone.  Correa should've been dropped on this roster AND a trade for Reynolds.

5 hours ago, Michael said:

On some bright side, at least the players we hinge hopes on now are a fair bit better than those three.

Your overall concerns are fair, though. Offense will be boom or bust again. Requires some breakouts and more consistency from Jazz and Sanchez. Requires Avisail to have his "good" years. Cooper's health as you mentioned. Aguilar needs to be a little more consistent. Bullpen ... ugh. Lol.

To be fair, our offense hasn’t had the potential to boom in years. 
 

This one is actually boom or bust.

Just now, Erick said:

To be fair, our offense hasn’t had the potential to boom in years. 
 

This one is actually boom or bust.

Offense had that potential last year for sure.

And in '20, really.